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FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

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FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by andybarrell » 09 Dec 2018, 07:55

After Saturday i sit with a GW rank of 3,210,064 all out

2 games to go will leave me pretty close to not qualifying

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 09 Dec 2018, 10:46

dellboy30 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/tea ... 7/event/16
with 33p 2 transfers sits now just outside the cut in GW Rank 4,198,127

With 33p 1Tx we have for instance our abhishekrocked https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/2796/event/16 GW Rank 4,175,882

It of course depends on who the masses around those scores still have to play

db30 plays Patricio Doerthy Richarlison and no subs
Abhishek Patricio Doerthy Sigurdsson and Kiko Femenia (as Wilson sub)

I'm myself on 35p 2 Tx in GR 3,909,029, but that doesn't count the 2p I'll sub on for Wilson.
I'll play Digne Doerthy Richarlison

With 40p 3Tx you Andy have 7p margin on the current cut
Your problem is that you're all-out :?

From FPLD teams selection https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2018 ... more-11645
we see that Doherty Jiménez Richarlison ownership is concentrated in top 10k, much less so in overall teams, where on average only 1.6 players will be played in last two matches combined

Good luck

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by No Way Jose » 09 Dec 2018, 20:34

I’m definitely a chance of missing out too. Killing it! 😂

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by 4candles » 09 Dec 2018, 20:41

Anyone know for sure if hits are excluded? From what I can tell, GW rank excludes hit (a few weeks ago, I scored something like 74-4 and a friend scored something like 76-8, but he had a higher GW rank.

Not sure if I'll scrape in - currently on 40 (-4) after autosubs, plus Richarlison and Success to go tomorrow.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 09 Dec 2018, 20:59

4candles wrote:
09 Dec 2018, 20:41
Anyone know for sure if hits are excluded? From what I can tell, GW rank excludes hit
Yes, exactly

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by andybarrell » 09 Dec 2018, 22:25

andybarrell wrote:
09 Dec 2018, 07:55
After Saturday i sit with a GW rank of 3,210,064 all out

2 games to go will leave me pretty close to not qualifying
3,514,650

1 game to go

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by cesc408 » 10 Dec 2018, 09:54

4,064,567

Richarlison to go. Should make it through (Unless he gets himself sent off again)

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by raoul » 10 Dec 2018, 10:01

so the cup is based on this GW score only?

Well I certainly picked my week didn't I?

5,828,170.

3 Everton to go, so miracles are needed.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 10 Dec 2018, 10:12

the current threshold is at
GR 4,183,752 with 35p and 1 GW transfer
GR 4,205,625 with 35p and 2 GW transfers

would the cut happen now, by the FPL Cup rules
If there are more than 4,194,304 qualifiers then there will be a random draw amongst the lowest scorers to see who qualifies.
there would be 4,205,624 qualifiers, with 21,873 teams tied in the 35p[1] group ranked 4,183,752
10,552 qualifiers would be drawn out of those 21,873

Of course we'll have to wait the final GW scores tonite

yesterday the cut was at 33[1], now it's at 35[1]
with no CS and Jota 11p Perez 9 Doherty 7 Rondon 5 Patricio 3, it only went up 2p

barring an EVE-WAT goalfest (or rather a toffee CS with Richarlison brace), I doubt the cut will go up by more than 2-3p as well

True, there are a lot of no-shows in the starting XI at all levels, and the current FPL intermediates do not count autosubs yet
That's the main threat for the sitting-ducks ;) at 40p, the increase from autosubs and VC in the teams around 35p now

in the Forum League
the group at 35p[1t] includes the Pokemon team in 5th, Matty B and Raith Raver
the group at 35p[2t] includes silversurfer19 xJosh- zalk davidoff Gavster ALAN1289
we have 174 ForumLeaguers above these, up to 40p
they might all be in a sort of danger zone, depending how many points will they add from players tonite / autosubs / VC

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 10 Dec 2018, 10:39

raoul wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 10:01
so the cup is based on this GW score only?
yep, the FPL Cup QUALIFICATION is based on this single Gameweek Ranking
check your (or anyone's) cup history link https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/cup/1

First round itself starts GW17, for those qualified
GW38 - GW16 = 22 rounds proper to play
2 ^ 22 = 4M teams = 1024 * 1024 * 4 = 4,194,304

some thought that basing it on a single GW is very unfair and there was a heated debate last season here
  • I thought to recall that someone quoted here a PL news article at season start claiming/hinting that there would have been restrictions on FPL Cup qualifiers...
    something like a team had to be registered within GW13 or GW14, to avoid that someone created a new team on GW16 with the sole purpose of Qualifiy for FPL Cup
    but I couldn't find it searching in PL News, nor in this forum
    it would make it less immediate than just looking at your GW16 rank to know if you're in... a bit awkward I'd say :?

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Finisher1 » 10 Dec 2018, 12:54

MoSe wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 10:39
some thought that basing it on a single GW is very unfair and there was a heated debate last season here
I think it's logical because every Cup match is decided by a single gameweek as well, so it's no different to the actual Cup itself. The only downside is that many managers might forget the Cup qualification taking place in GW16 and hence they miss the opportunity to make any possible preparations.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 10 Dec 2018, 13:24

yes F1 I agree with you, I didn't intend to rekindle the discussion (of course feel free if you want to, you might also then scoop up last season debate)

I was only metioning it for raoul, who seems new to the fray, reporting for correctness that there were differing opinions from mine (not clear to me whether raoul's question inplied criticism, or just information)

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Football Hero » 10 Dec 2018, 14:55

Finisher1 wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 12:54
MoSe wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 10:39
some thought that basing it on a single GW is very unfair and there was a heated debate last season here
I think it's logical because every Cup match is decided by a single gameweek as well, so it's no different to the actual Cup itself. The only downside is that many managers might forget the Cup qualification taking place in GW16 and hence they miss the opportunity to make any possible preparations.
Aren't managers trying to maximise their GW16 score anyway, even if they forgot about the cup?

You could argue that some managers might be concentrating more on maximising their GW17 and GW18 scores at the expense of GW16, but it makes more sense for one to concentrate more on the current week when their knowledge is more certain, than on future weeks that require more speculation on their part, so all-in-all I think that's a poor argument from yourself there.

So if that is the only downside, then as far as I can see, that means there is no real downside as the number of managers you are referring to will be minimal at best, and if they are that astute to plan weeks ahead while purposefully sacrificing the current week for +EV reasons, then they will likely know about the existence of the cup too.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Finisher1 » 10 Dec 2018, 15:15

I didn't say it's a big downside, I said it's just one possible downside for possibly someone.

For example hits don't count for GW rank, so if someone really really wants to be sure he gets into Cup then he can take some hits to build a very strong Cup qualification team.

Besides, I can imagine there were at least some managers who would have brought Salah in with a hit for this gameweek if they had known it's a Cup qualification. It's probably just a very marginal group, but my point stands.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by raoul » 10 Dec 2018, 16:07

MoSe wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 13:24
yes F1 I agree with you, I didn't intend to rekindle the discussion (of course feel free if you want to, you might also then scoop up last season debate)

I was only metioning it for raoul, who seems new to the fray, reporting for correctness that there were differing opinions from mine (not clear to me whether raoul's question inplied criticism, or just information)
Purely information. I knew there was a cup and knee nothing more.

And thanks for that information:)

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 11 Dec 2018, 00:52

Ouch

Sorry Andy, I underestimated the effect of subs/VC, and Richarlison too had enough ownership to help raise the cut

45p[1] grants a GR 4,139,761
45p[3] teams (Canary94) are just in as well with GW Rank 4,182,019

With 44p[0 transfers] you can still scrape in with GW Rank 4,191,687, although they have to pass a draw with less than 4% chance to qualify

just 1 transfer and you're out:
baganboy :( 44p[1] GW Rank 4,275,761

The threshold raised by 10p with one game :o

Ardrageen out too
From4corners inside with 46p and 4M GR

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Football Hero » 11 Dec 2018, 02:26

Finisher1 wrote:
10 Dec 2018, 15:15
I didn't say it's a big downside, I said it's just one possible downside for possibly someone.

For example hits don't count for GW rank, so if someone really really wants to be sure he gets into Cup then he can take some hits to build a very strong Cup qualification team.

Besides, I can imagine there were at least some managers who would have brought Salah in with a hit for this gameweek if they had known it's a Cup qualification. It's probably just a very marginal group, but my point stands.
But surely if they would have brought Salah in for the cup because they would have foreseen he was their best chance for big points, then why wouldn't they do that anyway for Overall Rank and standard FPL performance reasons? So your point doesn't make sense when only implied for cup reasons. If a decision is huge +EV in someone's subjective opinion, then they should do it regardless of whether it's qualifying for the cup or not.

Your point only holds water if we assume that someone can rationally make a decision that is ++EV for getting into the cup but that simultaneously is not also the best +EV for improving their OR in the immediate gameweek where they have most knowledge and certainty available to them. If it's ++EV for both OR and the cup, then the cup element to the decision is irrelevant as they are just applying standard OR FPL strategy to their thinking.

If there is a rare decision that is ++EV in the current week but that they can be 100% certain will hurt their performance in the following week by being super --EV in the following week, then that will hurt them in both next week's OR strategy and next week's round of the cup and so, (assuming they wanted to get into the cup so that they can maximise their chances of winning it, because hey, they're rational), then it is not a good decision to get into the cup in this way by also hurting your first round progressional chances in the process against a smaller and on average better player base in that round, (as they won't even know their round one opponent when making the initial decision).

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Finisher1 » 11 Dec 2018, 06:02

It might be ++EV only for Cup qualification and just +EV overall because hits don't count for Cup qualification, but they do count overall.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by andybarrell » 11 Dec 2018, 12:09

EPIC FAIL

4,809,457

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by theplayer » 11 Dec 2018, 12:26

Anyone know when we'll be able to see our GW17 opponent?

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Talkie Toaster » 11 Dec 2018, 15:10

4,053,704 phew!
I survive to be knocked out by a dead team at the weekend. :lol: :lol:

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Sutter Kane » 11 Dec 2018, 15:38

theplayer wrote:
11 Dec 2018, 12:26
Anyone know when we'll be able to see our GW17 opponent?
Can't remember how far it was into the GW in previous years - I thought it was maybe near the start of the week. Perhaps they are still finalising the logistics!

Of course the cup is pretty much pure luck, but if you have a great extended cup run, it probably means you are having a decent run in FPL generally. So getting to the final and winning would be lovely!

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by ajcairns » 11 Dec 2018, 18:13

A FISOer did rather well last year (final?) didn’t they?

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 11 Dec 2018, 18:46

viewtopic.php?p=3197641#p3197641

data/link collection for a Fpl Cup Fiso HoF
viewtopic.php?p=3195330#p3195330
alas never got to sort and polish it

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Football Hero » 11 Dec 2018, 22:09

Finisher1 wrote:
11 Dec 2018, 06:02
It might be ++EV only for Cup qualification and just +EV overall because hits don't count for Cup qualification, but they do count overall.
You are right.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by raoul » 12 Dec 2018, 08:50

andybarrell wrote:
11 Dec 2018, 12:09
EPIC FAIL

4,809,457
5,756,062. Now that's epic :)

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by MoSe » 12 Dec 2018, 09:15

MoSe wrote:
11 Dec 2018, 18:46
data/link collection for a Fpl Cup Fiso HoF
viewtopic.php?p=3195330#p3195330
alas never got to sort and polish it
here online https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 0O2UsAgslo
FPL Cup numbers.gif
FPL Cup - Fiso HoF.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Caf » 14 Dec 2018, 08:25

I’ve got my opponent for GW17 now. It’s actually an active team, ranked 318k and if they hadn’t taken 84 points of hits would probably be a bit better!
That said, they may be taking more hits this week as they have Arnautovic, Wilson, Ings, Martial and TAA.

Anyone matched against a slippier banana skin than that? :)

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Triggy » 14 Dec 2018, 11:24

I've got an active team ranked 56k... Not the best draw but it looks like the main difference in big players is I have Sterling and Sane and he had Hazard and Eriksen. Same strikers! Having said all that it will probably come down to a random defender goal and bonus.

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Re: FPL CUP - Starts GW 16 - Top 4,194,304 Qualify

Post by Chinese Whisperer » 14 Dec 2018, 12:20

I am up against a Malaysian team ranked around 4,500,000th and with only one transfer all season. His captain last week was Salah though, so could be dangerous!

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