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New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

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kammy.io
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New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

I have released a new tool, Kammy that predicts FPL transfers before the deadline, using changes in the team value and bank figures. This is designed to be used to track veteran players like Ville (I know he has his own thread here) or your own minileague opponents.

For example, ahead of the GW16 deadline, we can see how various veterans have replaced Arnautovic:

Ben Crabtree: Arnautovic -> Wilson (https://kammy.io/team/167508)
Mark Sutherns: Arnautovic -> Jiménez (https://kammy.io/team/4668)
Phil Ampleford: Aurnautovic -> Aubameyang (https://kammy.io/team/9731)

I hope people will find this useful. Any feedback would be appreciated.

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Turd Ferguson
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Turd Ferguson »

Nice tool. Thanks for sharing.

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No Way Jose
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by No Way Jose »

Impressive work. Good for the insecure types in the community and those who worship ville 😂

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Billy Bongo »

Getting page not found?

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kung_yoda »

Page not found...

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by andybarrell »

404 page not found

kammy.io
Kevin and Perry
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

Hmm, that's strange. Sorry about that.

I've not had similar reports from anywhere but FISO. Perhaps Tapatalk is adding something to the URLs such that they don't work? Then again, I've looked in the logs and can't even see the 404s.

If anyone could tell me what they see in their browser's address bar when receiving a 404 page, I'd really appreciate it. A screenshot would help too.

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Mav3rick
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Mav3rick »

The links work for me. The prediction aspect is interesting but must be hard to get right?

What do you reckon your accuracy rates are going to be like?

kammy.io
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

Honestly, I'm confident in the accuracy. I check the results after each gameweek rollover and the correct transfer is always one of Kammy's suggestions. It's never been the case that the actual transfer was one the tool hadn't even thought of. More often than not, the correct answer is the one that Kammy gave the highest %age confidence for.

For a single transfer, there aren't usually as many possible transfers as you might think. Kammy also prunes its suggestions daily, after the price changes, which allows us to throw out a lot of ideas as the week progresses. For example this team had a few possibilities yesterday, but Kammy is now 100%: the team's value increased by 0.1 overnight and Richarlison -> Anderson is the only possibility that fits the value change.

It's less effective against managers that make their transfers late in the week, because we can't prune using subsequent team value changes, but the transfer they made will still be one of the ones listed.

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MPTree
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by MPTree »

Woaaaaaah! I speculated over whether such a thing would be possible years back so I'm delighted to see a) it was possible and b) someone's actually made it. What a fascinating and incredible resource. I wonder how commonplace this tool will become among serious managers? Making this aspect of the game transparent won't be without its repercussions.

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Vsz »

I don't totally get it (apologies) - is the tool supposed to suggest most likely transfer that has been made by the manager? But only does so for a select few teams currently? If so, where does it show the xfer?

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by MoSe »

kammy.io wrote: 07 Dec 2018, 10:44 I have released a new tool, Kammy
Vsz wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 16:47 But only does so for a select few teams currently?
the 3 links below were examples, with teams from famous managers

The name Kammy in the first sentence is a link to the tool, where you can insert a team ID you want to check transfers before deadline

You're right, I had overlooked it says
Since this is only a preview release, we're only currently tracking a handful of teams. Tweet us to add all teams from your minileagues.
This puzzles me a bit...
So it can't take any team ID yet and work from there, but it needs to pre-digest a whole league data?
Why a whole league if you're only intersted in 1 rival? :?

On such basis... could you prepare it for our whole Forum League?
Id 14226 1.3k teams :mrgreen:

Or at least our Fiso Members league ID 14477 120 teams

Of course it works for a team you see had made some transfer this GW already
For instance you have now
Gameweek transfers: 0
So there's nothing to figure out for your team yet


I think it's optimal for ML rivals.
Or next H2H oppos (think FISO H2H, or 5AS H2H)

If only I was still a serious player! :lol:

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

MPTree wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 14:52 Woaaaaaah! I speculated over whether such a thing would be possible years back so I'm delighted to see a) it was possible and b) someone's actually made it. What a fascinating and incredible resource. I wonder how commonplace this tool will become among serious managers? Making this aspect of the game transparent won't be without its repercussions.
Thanks so much for your kind words.
Vsz wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 16:47 I don't totally get it (apologies) - is the tool supposed to suggest most likely transfer that has been made by the manager? But only does so for a select few teams currently? If so, where does it show the xfer?
Yes, exactly this.

The links in my OP were posted before GW16 started. At the point where I posted them, each of veteran's team's did have a prediction. None are showing today because those managers haven't yet made a transfer for GW17.

There's no point showing last week's predictions because they're completely stale at that point: you can just look at the team on the FPL site to see what they did last week.

The Top Teams page will give you a better feel for the tool. It shows the predictions for the highest ranked teams in the system. Clicking on a team name will show you all possibilities for that team.
MoSe wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 19:33 This puzzles me a bit...
So it can't take any team ID yet and work from there, but it needs to pre-digest a whole league data?
Why a whole league if you're only intersted in 1 rival? :?

On such basis... could you prepare it for our whole Forum League?
Id 14226 1.3k teams :mrgreen:

Or at least our Fiso Members league ID 14477 120 teams

Of course it works for a team you see had made some transfer this GW already
For instance you have now
Gameweek transfers: 0
So there's nothing to figure out for your team yet


I think it's optimal for ML rivals.
Or next H2H oppos (think FISO H2H, or 5AS H2H)

If only I was still a serious player! :lol:
The key thing is that a team needs to be in the system before their transfers are made, in order for Kammy to make a prediction. This is because the tool needs to know what the team value and bank values were before any transfers were made. It then uses the deltas to work out which transfers have been made.

If the team is in the system, and has made a transfer since the last GW started, then you can see its predictions by entering the team ID.

I accept addition requests for the following:
  1. your own team ID, which I'll use to add players from all of your minileagues
  2. a single opponent's team ID
  3. a league ID
The most common use case is point 1: people are interested in being able to track their opponents across all of their mini leagues.

I agree that ML rivals and H2H are a valid use case. The other is tracking veteran managers and following their lead.

I will get to work on adding the FISO leagues :)

EDIT: I've added the members league now. Some teams were already in. For example, Triple One Athletic, currently 12th in the league, has transferred Agüero -> Aubameyang with 100% certainty. Ferrous United, 45th, has transferred Martial -> Felipe Anderson.

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Mav3rick
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Mav3rick »

It's really rather clever, I mean I realise that there's no magic, just logical rules that narrow things down, but I do admire the actual work that's gone into it. Do you handle multiple transfers with as much assurance? If there's a double swap made in one go or multiple transfers made over the course of a week?

As mentioned it's going to be useful for mini leagues rather than overall rank, and I suppose anecdotally, the fact that the ville thread can usually work out his transfer goes to show that the rules can be codified to a large degree.

It's probably handy to know with some certainty what transfers a rival might have made although the concept of blocking managers really only comes into play toward the end of the season. I wonder if the availability of kammy would potentially stop managers embroiled in that kind of fight from making transfers until the Saturday morning (to be secretive).

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by MoSe »

Thanks Kammy
If I got it right, you need to *monitor* a team daily, to know *when* it made a transfer in order to better restrict the alternatives

If you jump in say on Thursday on a team you weren't monitoring, and you see it made 1 transfer, you don't know on which day he made it between last deadline and Thursday.
But you know his line up and team value and ITB at the deadline, and knowing FPL price changes for each player, you know what the team value would have been without a transfer.
So you can compare it with its actual value.
Of course not knowing the actual transfer date, you'd have to check all scenarios for each option:
If Transfer on Sat nite , analyse
If Transfer on Sun nite , analyse
If Transfer on Mon nite , analyse
If Transfer on Tue nite , analyse
If Transfer on Wed nite , analyse
This would be a bigger task with pen and paper, but off the top it should remain of the same order of complexity, computationally.

So if maybe it could be harder to restrict it to a single option, you should be able to list all possible predictions even if you weren't monitoring that team since he deadline.
:)
All this is just supposition as I haven't been doing any programming in last 2 or 3 decades :mrgreen:

X-Post: of course I second what Mav says, and step aside when he's on stage :)

kammy.io
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

Mav3rick wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 21:43 It's really rather clever, I mean I realise that there's no magic, just logical rules that narrow things down, but I do admire the actual work that's gone into it. Do you handle multiple transfers with as much assurance? If there's a double swap made in one go or multiple transfers made over the course of a week?
Thanks!

Kammy doesn't give yet predictions for multiple transfers, but this is high on the roadmap. 2+ transfers made at different points within the week will be no problem at all. For 2+ transfers made at the same time, I suspect there'll be too many candidates to present, but I might be able to narrow these down using price changes and the stats on transfers in/out for each player since the last deadline.
Mav3rick wrote: 10 Dec 2018, 21:43 I wonder if the availability of kammy would potentially stop managers embroiled in that kind of fight from making transfers until the Saturday morning (to be secretive).
One of my favourite things about FPL is the risk/reward element of making transfers early in the week, at the risk of bad news in the form of injuries or bad press conferences, for the positive tradeoff of getting in before the price rises or falls. Perhaps Kammy will add another element to that mix.

In my experience most veterans make their transfers on Friday night / Saturday morning anyway, but it'll be interesting to see whether anything changes. To be honest, I don't think uptake of the tool so far is at the point where it's drawn the attention of the veterans. Maybe one day...

There's always the risk that FPL themselves will stop making the financial data public throughout the week, too, at which point the whole thing goes out of the window.

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Budhabhoy
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by Budhabhoy »

Clever very clever...can see fpl towers blocking certain financials if this takes off....but in the meantime can you add mine and all mini leagues please 337776.

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MoSe
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by MoSe »

You got a mention on FFS article about gw17 tips
https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... nd-advice/
One team to consider for candidates is Watford. In his article, FPL General pointed out that over “the next seven Gameweeks, Javi Gracia’s side face just one of the top six” and that “Kiko Femenia (£4.2m) could be a nice differential”. For those interested this appears to be the player transferred in by World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen (currently 1,084 OR), if we are to trust new predictive website FPL Transfer Spy.
What's interesting to me in this news, I had no idea Carlsen was doing FPL and with such good results
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/1224174
This also explains what "Grandmaster" League actually stands for :o

kammy.io
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

Budhabhoy wrote: 14 Dec 2018, 19:04 Clever very clever...can see fpl towers blocking certain financials if this takes off....but in the meantime can you add mine and all mini leagues please 337776.
Thanks! Added.
MoSe wrote: 15 Dec 2018, 10:23 You got a mention on FFS article about gw17 tips
https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... nd-advice/
One team to consider for candidates is Watford. In his article, FPL General pointed out that over “the next seven Gameweeks, Javi Gracia’s side face just one of the top six” and that “Kiko Femenia (£4.2m) could be a nice differential”. For those interested this appears to be the player transferred in by World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen (currently 1,084 OR), if we are to trust new predictive website FPL Transfer Spy.
Thanks for this! I wasn't aware until your post. This explains today's traffic spike. The good news is that the tool was right about Kiko Femenia. It would've been a bit of a flop if not :D

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by ricardo68 »

Great took to keep JEgg honest haha. Nice work Kammy!

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by ricardo68 »

So question, how does it decide who is sold and who is bought? I sold Maddison 6.8m for Richarlison 7.1m and it thinks I sold Bennet 4.1m for Balbuena 4.4m.

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

ricardo68 wrote: 18 Dec 2018, 20:38 So question, how does it decide who is sold and who is bought? I sold Maddison 6.8m for Richarlison 7.1m and it thinks I sold Bennet 4.1m for Balbuena 4.4m.
Is it listing Maddison -> Richarlison as one of the options? Hopefully yes... (if not, PM me your team ID and I'll have a look. This would be the first report of a error! Sometimes the right transfer isn't the one with the highest %age confidence, but so far the correct transfer has always been somewhere in the list).

Where there's more than one possibility, they're weighted using the "gameweek transfers in" and "gameweek transfers out" figures for the two players. Options are pruned daily after the price changes. If, for example, Balbuena rises tonight but that's not reflected in your TV, it'll throw that option out.

Edit: Thinking about this some more, it could've got it completely wrong if you made the transfer between 11pm last night and 4am this morning. This was a one-off issue due to an outage in the data collection. If that's the case then don't worry about sending the team ID, because I know what it is.
Last edited by kammy.io on 19 Dec 2018, 08:36, edited 1 time in total.

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TopMarx
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by TopMarx »


kammy.io wrote: Thanks for this! I wasn't aware until your post. This explains today's traffic spike. The good news is that the tool was right about Kiko Femenia. It would've been a bit of a flop if not :D
Well it's good to know someone is reading the articles! They come out on a Saturday morning and I worry people are too busy with last minute transfer decisions to pay much attention. I hope the extra traffic wasn't a problem?

And yes great that it was right! :) I will certainly mention it again, I wish it had been around when I was writing my Top Five articles, it would have been very useful. But it's great to have it now, thank you for going to all the effort of creating it :) impressive work.

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by FP1990 »

Really thought Chris Kamara had started a weekly transfer predictor something like Mersons weekly score predictions when I opened the thread. Pleasantly surprised.

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by kammy.io »

TopMarx wrote: 19 Dec 2018, 02:46
kammy.io wrote: Thanks for this! I wasn't aware until your post. This explains today's traffic spike. The good news is that the tool was right about Kiko Femenia. It would've been a bit of a flop if not :D
Well it's good to know someone is reading the articles! They come out on a Saturday morning and I worry people are too busy with last minute transfer decisions to pay much attention. I hope the extra traffic wasn't a problem?

And yes great that it was right! :) I will certainly mention it again, I wish it had been around when I was writing my Top Five articles, it would have been very useful. But it's great to have it now, thank you for going to all the effort of creating it :) impressive work.
They certainly are reading them based on the traffic I saw, and the link to Kammy was a few paragraphs down too!

Will this week's article be on Friday, owing to the earlier deadline? I must confess I haven't previously found time to follow your myself, but I'm interested in starting.

The extra traffic was brilliant - certainly not a problem - and I'd be thrilled to see you mention it again in the future. There's a new Veterans page showing predictions for veterans only. I didn't compile the veteran list myself, so I added a FFS HoF rank column to make it easier to spot the consistently good managers.

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TopMarx
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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by TopMarx »

kammy.io wrote: 19 Dec 2018, 13:06 Will this week's article be on Friday, owing to the earlier deadline? I must confess I haven't previously found time to follow your myself, but I'm interested in starting.
Yes it will be on Friday, I submit the article Friday morning and then David will edit at lunchtime, so hopefully up in the afternoon.

The article is mainly a round-up of what has happened in the community on FFS and on the website, the main stories of the week. So there's no new information, especially for fantasy addicts, but hopefully it's a nice time saver if you've had a busy week.

An article I wrote recently that I'm quite proud of is one about the HoF https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... -managers/ looking at different ways to identify successful managers. It's interesting because what you are doing is a nice complement to Chris A's original idea for HoF:
“I wrote a script that scraped the teams of the top 15,000 and ranked those managers into the top 5000, middle 5000 and bottom 5000 by doing essentially the same as what the HoF does when it ranks managers. I then looked at percentage ownership of players in these groups. For example, I remember Elmohamady from Sunderland was barely owned by the weaker and middle managers (maybe 1%) but as high as 15% owned by the best managers. This made me feel better about having him in my squad.”
It's really useful being able to see which moves managers with a proven FPL track record have made. I pay more attention to those teams, so thank you for adding the column for veterans :D

I will definitely mention the transfer predictor again this week, and I've also told Greyhead about it in case he is interested for his 'The Great and The Good' series.

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Re: New tool: Kammy transfer predictor

Post by BuckJones »

Could you add my mini leagues?....32757...Thank you!

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