Manchester City

[Resonare]

Sterling looks to be the one to have atm. Pep's post match interview where he was grinning ear to ear when talking about him was a bit of a clue, and if Sane isn't playing because Mendy provides width then it makes sense that Pep wants an inverted winger on that side when Mendy is fit so Sterling has to start.

[Desperado]

The thing with Bernardo is that he can play a few positions and even if he's on the bench, he's likely to come on and with City's scoring prowess, he could easily get points off the bench. At 7.5, I'm thinking it might be worth just keeping him (barring injury) and riding out the rotation concerns. Does anyone know/have any stats on how many games he started last season and when his points came?

As I wrote already elsewhere BSilva was eased in the system in the first half of the season and played large majority of minutes on the second half. He was benched full 90 mins only thrice in PL. What needs to be noted that there was a period in May and April when he didn't get more than a sub appearances for for five games including a full 90 mins on bench against Liverpool 1st leg CL. For details see transfermarkt.

edit. And for what it's worth he got the most BPS per minutes from the bunch of DSilva, Sane, Sterling and KDB.

[twhelan22]

what do people think about b Silva? is he nailed on? who else would take that centre attacking role?

I know it's Pep, but I'm sure the quote was along the lines of "Bernardo and 10 others for now" and with him getting another goal yesterday I can't see how that's changed. I'll admit I never saw the game so have no idea of his overall performance but goals alone were enough for Sterling - who I don't rate overall as a player due to the amount of chances he wastes.

This lazy stereotype that Sterling wastes loads of chances needs to stop. It simply isn’t true. People remember the glaring miss against Burnley and assume he misses loads of big chances or has a poor conversion rate. Just because he never spanks one in from 25 yards and only scores simple goals doesn’t make him wasteful.

Some figures from last season.

Conversion rate:
Salah: 22.2%
Sterling: 20.7%
Sane: 17.5%
Hazard: 16.9%
Son: 16%
Mane: 14.3%
Alli: 13%
Sanchez: 10.2%

Percentage of big chances scored:
Sterling: 58%
Son: 50%
Alli: 50%
Salah: 46%
Sane: 45%
Hazard: 44%
Mane: 33%
Sanchez: 33%

His xG is also pretty much bang on with his actual goals scored too throughout his career so far (e.g. 18.83 xG last season, 18 goals). Evaluating finishing skill properly is really hard and we probably still don't have enough data to know for sure how good he is, but saying he's a bad finisher is just plain wrong on the evidence we have currently. The 'eye test' is often misleading, yes Sterling misses lots of chances but that's because he has soooo many chances in the first place, which is really rare. I don't know about you, but I think 0.63 NPxG90 (non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes) is pretty good going (6th best, actually)! For comparison, Lukaku scored 16 goals (14.71 NPxG), which works out at 0.44 NPxG90, and Salah and Sterling were in a different league to the rest of the players listed in the above quote (next best was Mane at 0.46 NPxG90). Most people are completely overestimating chance quality (i.e. likelihood that a particular chance is scored) and the media are constantly attacking Sterling for no reason (well, it's probably racism), so there is a lot of undeserved bias against him.

This article is great if anyone needs convincing still:
https://statsbomb.com/2018/07/raheem-st ... ing-goals/

[Finisher1]

Most people are completely overestimating chance quality

This is absolutely true. For example a word 'sitter' has suffered massive inflation in this forum.

[murf]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

[bigcliff2]

The thing with Bernardo is that he can play a few positions and even if he's on the bench, he's likely to come on and with City's scoring prowess, he could easily get points off the bench. At 7.5, I'm thinking it might be worth just keeping him (barring injury) and riding out the rotation concerns. Does anyone know/have any stats on how many games he started last season and when his points came?

As I wrote already elsewhere BSilva was eased in the system in the first half of the season and played large majority of minutes on the second half. He was benched full 90 mins only thrice in PL. What needs to be noted that there was a period in May and April when he didn't get more than a sub appearances for for five games including a full 90 mins on bench against Liverpool 1st leg CL. For details see transfermarkt.

edit. And for what it's worth he got the most BPS per minutes from the bunch of DSilva, Sane, Sterling and KDB.

Thanks

[dino1980]

Can you show the number of big chances for those players?

Salah 43
Sterling 26
Mane 19
Son 18
Sanchez 15
Alli 15
Sane 11
Hazard 9

[twhelan22]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

How is he a selfish money grabber with a tiny brain? Would love to hear a reasonable explanation for that one!

As for chance creation, only 8 players managed a higher xA90 than Sterling in the EPL last season, most of whom are the names you'd expect like KDB, Coutinho, Ozil and Eriksen.

[Billy Bongo]

' a tiny brain '

The irony is thick Obi Wan

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[LamebrainEddy]

How is he a selfish money grabber with a tiny brain? Would love to hear a reasonable explanation for that one!

Sun readers need no explanation

[twhelan22]

Some more stats:

US90 = unsuccessful touches per 90, aka bad control
DP90 = dispossessed on the ball per 90

Sterling: 2.3 US90, 2 DP90
Sane: 3 US90, 2.4 DP90
Sanchez: 2.7 US90, 3 DP90
Salah: 3.2 US90, 2.9 DP90
Hazard: 2.4 US90, 2.8 DP90
Zaha: 3.7 US90, 3.9 DP90
Mahrez: 2.8 US90, 1.9 DP90
Mane: 2.8 US90, 2 DP90
Martial: 3.1 US90, 3.1 DP90
Son: 2.5 US90, 2.2 DP90

[carver]

World Cup Stats

Conversion rate:
Sterling: 0%

Percentage of big chances scored:
Sterling: 0%

[Billy Bongo]

Do all his air shots count in these magic stats?

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[OldSkoolFPL]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

And still he scored 18 goals and got 17 assists at age 23, imagine what he'll be like this year when he improves even more? Early signs after yesterday are encouraging.

What I don't follow is how many are prepared to spend 11m on Aguero but not 11m on Sterling, Aguero scored 169 points last year, Sterling scored 229 & was returning almost every week, I'd argue Sterling is more key to City's play than Aguero yet one is seen as must have but the other not.

[Billy Bongo]

Pep 100% said Sterling was good to go because hes skinny and short and runs funny. Hss nailed on its seems, fat Sane and Mahrez for the other spot

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[froog]

sterling is top class and scores goals all day for fun. how is this even a debate?

[OldSkoolFPL]

Sterling was nailed anyway IMO, the fact that him & Mendy worked so well down that side with Sterling cutting in to allow Mendy on the outside nailed him more for me.

That left side is going to kill teams this season.

[sunnO)))jihai]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

How is he a selfish money grabber with a tiny brain? Would love to hear a reasonable explanation for that one!

Well, he left Liverpool for one, which makes him a stupid mercenary by default. Everyone knows he only left for the money and not for the three trophies he has won so far. He's also black. And he runs funny with his t-rex arms. And I bet he paid well over the odds for that tattoo the flash little wink. Either that or he got it done on the cheap the tight bustard. (source for that one)

[Billy Bongo]

A little brain with T rex arms

Never let it be said fantasy footbal managers arent balanced in their rage when a player they dont own scores

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[twhelan22]

Do all his air shots count in these magic stats?

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I know you are joking here but some xG models do factor in air shots or don't even use shots at all - not sure about Understat as they don't publish their methodology. I have a dataset now which will allow me to factor that in though, just need to spend the time making the model, which is a lot easier said than done.

[Billy Bongo]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

And still he scored 18 goals and got 17 assists at age 23, imagine what he'll be like this year when he improves even more? Early signs after yesterday are encouraging.

What I don't follow is how many are prepared to spend 11m on Aguero but not 11m on Sterling, Aguero scored 169 points last year, Sterling scored 229 & was returning almost every week, I'd argue Sterling is more key to City's play than Aguero yet one is seen as must have but the other not.

Aguero played 25% less mins and yet scored only 20% less points . That's why

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[twhelan22]

World Cup Stats

Conversion rate:
Sterling: 0%

Percentage of big chances scored:
Sterling: 0%

Yep! Golden boot winner scored 1 goal from open play, and that was by accident!

[MPTree]

I certainly think there's a discussion to be had regarding Agureo & ~9m mid vs. Sterling & ~9m forward. A few more games should paint a clearer picture of how worthwhile that approach would be.

[genevapics]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

How is he a selfish money grabber with a tiny brain? Would love to hear a reasonable explanation for that one!

He's also black.(source for that one)

You sound like a BIGOT. WTH does the color of his skin have to do with anything? Surely you’re not saying he’s less intelligent due to skin color are you?

[Finisher1]

It's not that he wastes chances with rubbish shots (he isn't great but he is generally ok), it is his decision making that can be appalling. He wastes chances by not playing the right pass at the right time etc - did it dozens of times at the WC but knows his role/place a little better at Citeh.

Whatever you think of the selfish little money grabber with great ability and a tiny brain (and I won't say what I think), it is his points return that counts at the end of the day.

How is he a selfish money grabber with a tiny brain? Would love to hear a reasonable explanation for that one!

He's also black.(source for that one)

You sound like a BIGOT. WTH does the color of his skin have to do with anything? Surely you’re not saying he’s less intelligent due to skin color are you?

[Beerfuelledman]

He's also black.(source for that one)

You sound like a BIGOT. WTH does the color of his skin have to do with anything? Surely you’re not saying he’s less intelligent due to skin color are you?

Choosing which parts of a post to quote doesn't allow any context to come through. Had you chosen "Everyone knows he only left for the money and not for the three trophies he has won so far." the sarcasm may have been more apparent. But lets not stray to close to the line here folks and move back on topic please.

[dellboy30]

World Cup Stats

Conversion rate:
Sterling: 0%

Percentage of big chances scored:
Sterling: 0%

Yep! Golden boot winner scored 1 goal from open play, and that was by accident!

Weren't Kane's 2 goals in opening game from open play ?

[Demonic Pact]

(...)Does anyone know/have any stats on how many games he started last season and when his points came?

Here's the relevant city mids last seasons stats:

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comm ... ayer_data/

[twhelan22]

World Cup Stats

Conversion rate:
Sterling: 0%

Percentage of big chances scored:
Sterling: 0%

Yep! Golden boot winner scored 1 goal from open play, and that was by accident!

Weren't Kane's 2 goals in opening game from open play ?

Corners

[snout]

Seriously considering swapping Mikitikitaki + Aguero for Sterling + Zaha.

But maybe I should wait until after I TC Serge in the Newcastle game?