Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
The problem with this is that we don't need these bargains to beat the casuals, we will be beating them anyhow.Stemania wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 10:54A great example of this is Wan-Bissaka - the standout 4m defender bargain. FFS (a highly skilled community) just released an article aggregating their RMT posts from before GW1. Amazingly, the joint 2nd-highest owned player (!) was W-B on a huge 96% ownership, only beaten by Salah. Yet, even after the post-GW1 transfer flurry, his overall ownership is less than 20%. The more such bargains there are, the higher the population of talented FPL managers there will be in, say, the top 10k come the end of the season, i.e., the better all the invested FPL managers will do on average (so better for all us FISOers imo).
The issue is that when there are fairly obvious bargains about, it means that the edge that the absolute best managers have over the very good managers gets eroded, and that is bad. And you need to beat as many of the good managers as possible if you want to get in the top 10k.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Before the poker boom there were poor players but in a much smaller pool, and there were plenty of decent players too. At, and just after, the boom there so many more people playing the game, but a high % of whom were really bad and who thought they could play the game because they had seen it on the telly. This was the time to make hay while the sun shone and reap the rewards and any half decent poker player could turn a profit on a regular basis. A lot of the bad players have more or less all gone now as they finally realised they weren't actually any good in the long term and were losing money. The players that were quicker to learn have adapted and the % of decent players regularly playing the game is much higher today that it was 15 years ago.zipnolan wrote: ↑13 Aug 2018, 15:58 Managers - us. And he's saying that we (FISOers) have a better knowledge than others, which makes the number of variations in our play fewer, and the variations that make a difference more crucial.
I can sort of see it. In poker, until the boom, there were a lot of really poor players of Texas Hold 'em, for example. Now, with all the literature, everyone knows how to play ABC and to evaluate starting hands. So the key is to strike at the key moments, and that's what the best do.
With FPL I think we are still in the immediate aftermath of the boom and there are a lot of bad players thinking they know what to do. Out of the ~4 million active players there is still a small % of those that are actually any good so if you are successful now its against a backdrop of lots of fishes in the sea. Some of them might get lucky and get a good score but in the long run the better player will win over a few seasons.
Eventually some will lose interest in FPL even though it's a free game and you cant really lose money (unless you are really careless), and a load more will carry on even though they are bad. Those persevering and learning from experience will get better so the game should get progressively harder against the field as time goes by.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
I agree with most of those insights, aj.
This year has been extraordinary in my experience, in that week 1 has been one where anyone would need to be incredibly unlucky not to have scored, say, 70+ if following a "template" team of FISO or FFS. Almost every thoughtful strategy has come home, be it a straight pick from FFS's RMTs, a VR type selection of 3 x 4.0 defenders or the de luxe defender approach of AR. The only strategy that has managed to trump those has been the (derided by me, mea culpa) "BB in week one", and that has been so successful because all reasonable picks have come in. It won't often be so. Most will still expect to score healthily from the template, but it's the astute gambles that are going to show profit, probably from next week.
This year has been extraordinary in my experience, in that week 1 has been one where anyone would need to be incredibly unlucky not to have scored, say, 70+ if following a "template" team of FISO or FFS. Almost every thoughtful strategy has come home, be it a straight pick from FFS's RMTs, a VR type selection of 3 x 4.0 defenders or the de luxe defender approach of AR. The only strategy that has managed to trump those has been the (derided by me, mea culpa) "BB in week one", and that has been so successful because all reasonable picks have come in. It won't often be so. Most will still expect to score healthily from the template, but it's the astute gambles that are going to show profit, probably from next week.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
no objection, just to add some volume data:
using the Fiso Forum League as sample reference (over 1k teams)
BBs played / total GW1 entrants
2017/18 -- 12 / 1137 = 1.055%
2018/19 -- 20 / 1273 = 1.571%
only one half percent more of Fiso Leaguers chose to follow GW1 BB compared to last season
in total less than 1 Fisoer in 64
____
add scoring details
2017/18 GW1 Forum League
12 BB avg Pts 76.83
1125 no-BB teams avg Pts 67.35, avg Pts left on Bench 6.44
(i.e. they'd have got still 3p less than BB teams even had all played it -- so the 12 BB teams were already a bit better, regardless BB)
2018/19 GW1 Forum League
20 BB avg Pts 94.15
1253 no-BB teams avg Pts 71.77, avg Pts left on Bench 13.28 -- had ALL teams played BB, they'd have got 85.05p, 9.1p less than those who played it!
Last edited by MoSe on 14 Aug 2018, 14:57, edited 1 time in total.
- ajcairns
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
are the impact of FISO and the Scout are over-egged though. Not many were talking about Kane before GW1 but he still had 30+% ownership
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
The edge only increases. Again, decreasing the luck aspect and possible combinations/variance will inevitably increase the effect of skill. In your example, it actually restricts the amount of ways a very good manager can luck out on a better one. Of course, introduce too many bargains and skill will become redundant as there will be too many static parameters i.e. a fixed template with exact players will form which is BAD.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 13:10 The problem with this is that we don't need these bargains to beat the casuals, we will be beating them anyhow.
The issue is that when there are fairly obvious bargains about, it means that the edge that the absolute best managers have over the very good managers gets eroded, and that is bad. And you need to beat as many of the good managers as possible if you want to get in the top 10k.
What's best is having a nice, loose template - one that restricts variance but leaves flexibility for skill. This is what eventually emerges most seasons and why the underlined part of your post typically happens.
The issue is that at the start of the season this seldom exists which means you'll have some great managers who get lucky and find themselves with a near template team ranked high while offers didn't and find themselves looking to have to climb a mountain to a decent finish. This year, the template will probably come early as so many pre season picks came through, which I absolutely love because it means no one can be too far ahead before skilled managers can catch them.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Decreasing combinations and possibilities decreases the edge, it does not increase it.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:15The edge only increases. Again, decreasing the luck aspect and possible combinations/variance will inevitably increase the effect of skill. In your example, it actually restricts the amount of ways a very good manager can luck out on a better one. Of course, introduce too many bargains and skill will become redundant as there will be too many static parameters i.e. a fixed template with exact players will form which is BAD.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 13:10 The problem with this is that we don't need these bargains to beat the casuals, we will be beating them anyhow.
The issue is that when there are fairly obvious bargains about, it means that the edge that the absolute best managers have over the very good managers gets eroded, and that is bad. And you need to beat as many of the good managers as possible if you want to get in the top 10k.
What's best is having a nice, loose template - one that restricts variance but leaves flexibility for skill. This is what eventually emerges most seasons and why the underlined part of your post typically happens.
The issue is that at the start of the season this seldom exists which means you'll have some great managers who get lucky and find themselves with a near template team ranked high while offers didn't and find themselves looking to have to climb a mountain to a decent finish. This year, the template will probably come early as so many pre season picks came through, which I absolutely love because it means no one can be too far ahead before skilled managers can catch them.
If there were only 15 viable players that were also obvious to good managers or better then where is the edge for the great managers to beat the good managers? If there were only 30 viable players compared to 70 viable players then there is less edge. I don't understand why you can't see this. The more seemingly legitimate options, the more likely it is that a good manager will make a mistake.
This is why it's funny when I read about people making decisions to help them beat the casual masses. Why on earth are they worried about that group of players for?
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
What constitutes as a 'mistake'? Would picking Aguero before the season but seeing him benched for Jesus who starts and scores a hat-trick be considered a 'mistake'?Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:31Decreasing combinations and possibilities decreases the edge, it does not increase it.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:15The edge only increases. Again, decreasing the luck aspect and possible combinations/variance will inevitably increase the effect of skill. In your example, it actually restricts the amount of ways a very good manager can luck out on a better one. Of course, introduce too many bargains and skill will become redundant as there will be too many static parameters i.e. a fixed template with exact players will form which is BAD.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 13:10 The problem with this is that we don't need these bargains to beat the casuals, we will be beating them anyhow.
The issue is that when there are fairly obvious bargains about, it means that the edge that the absolute best managers have over the very good managers gets eroded, and that is bad. And you need to beat as many of the good managers as possible if you want to get in the top 10k.
What's best is having a nice, loose template - one that restricts variance but leaves flexibility for skill. This is what eventually emerges most seasons and why the underlined part of your post typically happens.
The issue is that at the start of the season this seldom exists which means you'll have some great managers who get lucky and find themselves with a near template team ranked high while offers didn't and find themselves looking to have to climb a mountain to a decent finish. This year, the template will probably come early as so many pre season picks came through, which I absolutely love because it means no one can be too far ahead before skilled managers can catch them.
If there were only 15 viable players that were also obvious to good managers or better then where is the edge for the great managers to beat the good managers? If there were only 30 viable players compared to 70 viable players then there is less edge. I don't understand why you can't see this. The more seemingly legitimate options, the more likely it is that a good manager will make a mistake.
This is why it's funny when I read about people making decisions to help them beat the casual masses. Why on earth are they worried about that group of players for?
I don't want to drag this off-topic. All I can say at this point is that I've said what I mean, I recommend you read some of my posts again, particularly where I described bargains vs skill as being a bell curve where both extremes are detrimental (I don't mean this in a rude way, I just think it will help avoid going in circles).
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
If there were only 15 viable players that were also obvious to good managers, then due to individual circumstances, the want to be different etc, you'll find most good managers would still only have something like 10 or 11. Your edge is micromanaging your squad well enough to have 13 or 14.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
So, the question I’m asking myself is: if Robertson is a bargain at 6m and a non-premium - TAA - also a bargain at £5m, is spending a transfer upgrading TAA worth it or not?
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
That's another good point. How is TAA at 5.0M similar in FPL potential to someone like Kante who most weeks he plays he will just pick up 2 points, whereas TAA can get 6 points almost half the time he plays, and potentially more than 6 points in the odd week?
FPL have cocked up the pricing for sure.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
A mistake is when you do something other than being optimal.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:47What constitutes as a 'mistake'? Would picking Aguero before the season but seeing him benched for Jesus who starts and scores a hat-trick be considered a 'mistake'?Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:31Decreasing combinations and possibilities decreases the edge, it does not increase it.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:15The edge only increases. Again, decreasing the luck aspect and possible combinations/variance will inevitably increase the effect of skill. In your example, it actually restricts the amount of ways a very good manager can luck out on a better one. Of course, introduce too many bargains and skill will become redundant as there will be too many static parameters i.e. a fixed template with exact players will form which is BAD.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 13:10 The problem with this is that we don't need these bargains to beat the casuals, we will be beating them anyhow.
The issue is that when there are fairly obvious bargains about, it means that the edge that the absolute best managers have over the very good managers gets eroded, and that is bad. And you need to beat as many of the good managers as possible if you want to get in the top 10k.
What's best is having a nice, loose template - one that restricts variance but leaves flexibility for skill. This is what eventually emerges most seasons and why the underlined part of your post typically happens.
The issue is that at the start of the season this seldom exists which means you'll have some great managers who get lucky and find themselves with a near template team ranked high while offers didn't and find themselves looking to have to climb a mountain to a decent finish. This year, the template will probably come early as so many pre season picks came through, which I absolutely love because it means no one can be too far ahead before skilled managers can catch them.
If there were only 15 viable players that were also obvious to good managers or better then where is the edge for the great managers to beat the good managers? If there were only 30 viable players compared to 70 viable players then there is less edge. I don't understand why you can't see this. The more seemingly legitimate options, the more likely it is that a good manager will make a mistake.
This is why it's funny when I read about people making decisions to help them beat the casual masses. Why on earth are they worried about that group of players for?
I don't want to drag this off-topic. All I can say at this point is that I've said what I mean, I recommend you read some of my posts again, particularly where I described bargains vs skill as being a bell curve where both extremes are detrimental (I don't mean this in a rude way, I just think it will help avoid going in circles).
So great managers perhaps make 100 mistakes a season and good managers make 150 mistakes a season for example.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
This has evolved over time, season on season. I agree with the TAA v Kante arguement but which way do you go, down for Kante or up for TAA? The idea isn't to price out all the best pics but to ensure that there's a fair choice across the board. I suppose TAA is currently the pick of the 5.0s so isn't a good example to use as he could be gold (how about Sakho, Betrand or one of the Burnley lot v Kante?) but still many will opt for a bunch of 4.5s and below (if there is enough of them) and spend elsewhere in their team.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 16:53That's another good point. How is TAA at 5.0M similar in FPL potential to someone like Kante who most weeks he plays he will just pick up 2 points, whereas TAA can get 6 points almost half the time he plays, and potentially more than 6 points in the odd week?
FPL have cocked up the pricing for sure.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
I don’t believe it matters much in the current "FPL enviroment" whether premium defenders are priced to be best value in the game. People want to find "the true" differentials and people find offensive points more fun and therefore will focus on playing offensive formations. I feel this is confirmed by some of the other posts in this thread.
This game is ruled by luck/variance/happenstance so in the end it doesn't matter much if you do not play "optimally" (whatever that is).
This game is ruled by luck/variance/happenstance so in the end it doesn't matter much if you do not play "optimally" (whatever that is).
No. You have both of course
Last edited by FranckKessie on 14 Aug 2018, 19:31, edited 1 time in total.
- Archy
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
And drop who out of Salah and Mane?
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Salah.Archy wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 19:30And drop who out of Salah and Mane?
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
In the short term I wouldn't drop any of them, and I wouldn't switch out TAA, i.e. no Robertson. Long term with my current knowledge I wouldn't have Mane, and I dont have him, because I believe he can be matched by others in the price bracket/ or by combinations of lower priced bracket players. I.e. I don't find him to be value. But I may very well end up being wrong. Hopefully he will not get offside goals in the future though
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Good points, I think Eriksen will start showing his worth soon and, when the fuxtures turn, he may well take Mane’s place. Slightly nervous about what he’ll do against Fulham actually.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
My points is, what is considered "optimal"? Choosing the player who should score the most or choosing the player who does score the most?Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 16:55 A mistake is when you do something other than being optimal.
So great managers perhaps make 100 mistakes a season and good managers make 150 mistakes a season for example.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
The player who should score the most, after considering all factors, and making an allowance for their price and how that fits into a 100.0M budget plan.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 22:18My points is, what is considered "optimal"? Choosing the player who should score the most or choosing the player who does score the most?Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 16:55 A mistake is when you do something other than being optimal.
So great managers perhaps make 100 mistakes a season and good managers make 150 mistakes a season for example.
In practice the best managers will consider more factors than the next tier of managers and so-on.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
So that means picking a player who should do well and doesn't isn't down to a lack of skill, correct? If that's true then it's down to variance.Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 22:33The player who should score the most, after considering all factors, and making an allowance for their price and how that fits into a 100.0M budget plan.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 22:18My points is, what is considered "optimal"? Choosing the player who should score the most or choosing the player who does score the most?Football Hero wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 16:55 A mistake is when you do something other than being optimal.
So great managers perhaps make 100 mistakes a season and good managers make 150 mistakes a season for example.
In practice the best managers will consider more factors than the next tier of managers and so-on.
Obvious bargains -> Higher ownership -> Less ownership of sub-optimal choices -> Less damage done when sub-optimal choices return points, see my Mendy/Otamendi example from earlier.
Your argument about increasing combinations/possibilities increasing the edge better players have is also something I disagree with when talking about large numbers of combinations/possibilities. Add too many then suddenly several "optimal" options appear and once again only luck will decide which ones pay off and which ones don't.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Luck has more of an influence over a smaller number of combinations/possibilities and the more you increase those the more the judgement of better players will carry an edge.Resonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 23:46 So that means picking a player who should do well and doesn't isn't down to a lack of skill, correct? If that's true then it's down to variance.
Obvious bargains -> Higher ownership -> Less ownership of sub-optimal choices -> Less damage done when sub-optimal choices return points, see my Mendy/Otamendi example from earlier.
Your argument about increasing combinations/possibilities increasing the edge better players have is also something I disagree with when talking about large numbers of combinations/possibilities. Add too many then suddenly several "optimal" options appear and once again only luck will decide which ones pay off and which ones don't.
To take an extreme example, suppose FPL involved only one decision - who to captain on GW1. All the people who captained Pereyra beat people who captained Salah, game over. But how many of those would you fancy to finish higher over a full season?
If there are a larger number of "optimal" options appear then the better players will also be more likely to be separated from the others as there will be more decisions to make - eg when to stick or twist with the ones who don't deliver. If for instance this year Salah has an OK but not great season, and is outscored by Mane, Sterling, Eriksen, then a big decision will be the timing of jumping off him to get an extra premium midfielder in.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
I'll make the observation that most of the top guys I follow have Mendy, Robbo, AWB along with a smattering of PvA, Daniels, Cedric, Peltier and a few others. Very little variation around the edges.
I'd go so far as to say there's just about a "correct" pot of players to pull from in each position, being the best of breed at each price point. Most midfields have something like Salah/Mane/Richarlison/Neves along with a forward line of say Firmino/Zaha. If Zaha fails he is easily replaced by Arnie, King, Wood, Tosun etc and same for Firm -> Laca.
I'd go so far as to say there's just about a "correct" pot of players to pull from in each position, being the best of breed at each price point. Most midfields have something like Salah/Mane/Richarlison/Neves along with a forward line of say Firmino/Zaha. If Zaha fails he is easily replaced by Arnie, King, Wood, Tosun etc and same for Firm -> Laca.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
I don't recall Firmino being well owned by too many on fiso or ffs from the examples I've seen. More likely the forward lines consists of Aguero, 6-7mn, another 6-7mn or Kamara/Quaner. However I agree it seems there's certainly a rough template that's worked in GW1 and was obviously created pre-GW1. There's a decent chance in this case, that the template will do well all season - it's been well thought out for a long time. Around the edges there will be bargains to add in, Arnautovic, Pogba, 5-6.5mn mids perhaps. The problems arise when possibly having to select another premium option from the collection of Hazard, KDB, Lukaku, Auba etc. Compromises have to be made when we see these players getting double figures consecutively since it's difficult to resist. Often an Alonso or another 6mn makes way but maybe this season will be different. Liverpool have a tough run from GW5-8 so Robertson could be the one to go although no-one would think of removing him right now.
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Re: Premium defenders significantly underpriced?
Both Football Hero and yourself are using a strawman. You say that reducing combinations/possibilities decreases skill edge, but then you jump all the way to the extreme to try and show it after I clearly said this...The Libero wrote: ↑15 Aug 2018, 07:38 Luck has more of an influence over a smaller number of combinations/possibilities and the more you increase those the more the judgement of better players will carry an edge.
To take an extreme example, suppose FPL involved only one decision - who to captain on GW1. All the people who captained Pereyra beat people who captained Salah, game over. But how many of those would you fancy to finish higher over a full season?
If there are a larger number of "optimal" options appear then the better players will also be more likely to be separated from the others as there will be more decisions to make - eg when to stick or twist with the ones who don't deliver. If for instance this year Salah has an OK but not great season, and is outscored by Mane, Sterling, Eriksen, then a big decision will be the timing of jumping off him to get an extra premium midfielder in.
This is what a bell curve looks likeResonare wrote: ↑14 Aug 2018, 15:47 I don't want to drag this off-topic. All I can say at this point is that I've said what I mean, I recommend you read some of my posts again, particularly where I described bargains vs skill as being a bell curve where both extremes are detrimental (I don't mean this in a rude way, I just think it will help avoid going in circles).
Both extremes are bad, too many combinations/possibilities and too little.
You're both saying that increasing combinations and possibilities increases the effect of skill when it doesn't always - at a certain point there will be so many options that several optimal options appear and which ones do well and which don't has no bearing on skill. Combinations/possibilities vs skill is the same as obvious bargains vs skill - a bell curve not a straight line.
And to be honest it's common sense. If decreasing possibilities/comibnations is always bad for the effect of skill then skilled players should do worse as injuries happen, players lose form and templates emerge through the season yet miraculously skilled players move up the ranks as the season progresses
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