Defenders most likely to get Bonus Points (Baseline BPS) 18/19

[Stemania]

Preseason seems like a good time to assess which defenders from each team are most likely to get bonus points in the event of a clean sheet (assuming no attacking contributions), based on last season's data. So welcome back thread.

I didn't update it at the end of the season, so here's complete list of Baseline BPS scorers from last year, with players who failed to make 10 or more starts excluded. That is, the total number of bonus points each player has accrued over the season has been tallied, any 'additionally rewarded' bonus points for goals/assists/CSs have been removed, and, after a very good suggestion from carver last year, any BPS associated with yellow/red cards has also been removed.

In an attempt to make it as readable as possible, the stat displayed is 'minutes per Baseline BPS' (to one decimal place) as usual, so the lower the number the better. Obviously, expected minutes/likelihood of rotation/attacking threat/card magnetism and most of all price, should all be thrown into the mix when actually choosing a defender, but hopefully the following remains a useful resource:


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Team 1st (2nd, 3rd, ...)
ARS : Mustafi 4.95, (Koscielny 5.25, Monreal 5.51, Chambers 5.83, Kolasinac 6.48, Bellerín 6.59)

BHA : Bruno 6.49, (Duffy 6.42, Dunk 6.76, Schelotto 7.11, Suttner 7.55, Bong 7.51)

BOU : Daniels 6.18, (Aké 6.23, Francis 6.08, A Smith 6.35, Cook 6.75)

BUR : Mee 6.46, (Long 6.70, Ward 6.84, Lowton 6.98, Tarkowski 6.94, Bardsley 7.35, Taylor 7.97)

CHE : Azpilicueta 5.08, (Christensen 5.46, Cahill 5.97, Rüdiger 6.23, Alonso 7.08, Moses 7.84, Zappacosta 8.05)

CPL : Sakho 5.44, (Tomkins 6.30, Fosu-Mensah 6.51, Van Aanholt 6.94, Dann 7.07, Ward 7.09, Schlupp 7.80, Kelly 8.67)

EVE : Jagielka 5.92, (Keane 5.97, Martina 6.25, Kenny 6.49, Holgate 6.54, Williams 6.59, Baines 7.26, Coleman 7.67)

HUD : Schindler 5.78, (Kongolo 6.71, Lowe 6.84, Malone 6.68, Zanka 7.01, Hadergjonaj 7.46, Smith 7.54)

LEI : Maguire 5.99, (Fuchs 6.25, Chilwell 6.34, Morgan 8.10, Simpson 8.09)

LIV : Milner 4.81*, (Gomez 5.02, Klavan 5.27, Moreno 5.40, Lovren 5.52, Robertson 5.71, Matip 5.83, Alexander-Arnold 5.88, van Dijk* 6.12)

MCI : Danilo 5.52, (Otamendi 5.52, Stones 5.83, Kompany 5.77, Walker 6.06)

MUN : Jones 5.13, (Lindelof 5.42, Smalling 6.11, Bailly 6.54, Valencia 6.66)

NEW : Lejeune 6.19, (Lascelles 6.79, Clark 6.92, Dummett 7.25, Yedlin 7.58, Manquillo 9.26)

SOT : Hoedt 5.40, (Yoshida 6.53, Stephens 6.57, Cedric 7.46, Bertrand 7.76)

**STK : Zouma 6.08, (Martins Indi 7.24, Cameron 7.58, Pieters 7.58, Shawcross 8.41, Bauer 8.38)

**SWA : Mawson 6.54, (van der Hoorn 6.56, Fernández 6.63, Wimmer 6.84, Naughton 7.09, Olsson 9.33)

TOT : Trippier 5.28, (Vertonghen 5.38, Sanchez 5.58, Davies 5.90, Alderweireld 6.26, Aurier 6.80)

WAT : Femenía 5.42, (Janmaat 6.63, Zeegelaar 6.14, Britos 6.33, Mariappa 7.31, Prödl 7.10, Kabasele 7.38, Holebas 7.53)

**WBA : Evans 6.23, Hegazi 6.69, Nyom 7.06, Gibbs 7.49 Dawson 7.53)

WHU : Rice 5.88, (Ogbonna 6.58, Collins 6.65, Masuaku* 6.66, Reid 6.76, Cresswell 7.14, Zabaleta 7.20)

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Underlined is anyone who's started at least 30 games. All the usual small sample size stuff etc, and potential changes of circumstances/formations/managers/signings caveats, but hopefully a decent early indication for the season ahead.

*Milner & Masuaku now classed as mids; No data (yet) for Delph, Young or Wan-Bissaka, who were classed as mids last season; VVD's data taken only from GW22-38 when a Liverpool player

**I've included the relegated teams in grey italic.

GKs are the additional big complication, but they're not particularly easy to compare directly with defenders for various reasons. Whether a GK will get the bonus usually depends on the specific team in question/their style of play and how many saves they make. Also, as a rule they get relatively more BPS in tougher games than defenders, but perform worse in easier games - making direct comparison via averages even harder.

(The numbers are easy enough to calculate from scratch via spreadsheet, but I'm lazy so I borrowed partial data from the FFS members area).


Standouts?

Attacking contributions reign supreme, but under 'normal' circumstances: If the above numbers above are close between players from the same team, then individual match circumstances seem most likely to determine the bonus point outcome if a CS happens - I guess the real standouts in bonus point potential are those 'regular' players who are way ahead of their regular-starting teammates, so we're probably talking the likes of

Schindler (HUD), Azpili (CHE), Sakho (CPL), Maguire (LEI), Jones (MUN), Hoedt (SOT), Zouma (STO), & Femenia (WAT).

That doesn't tell the full story, as in order to get BPS in a 0-0 draw you also need to beat the opposition defender's BPL scores. Some teams in general are very poor in this regard. The best performing players in the whole league so far are a mix of pretty familiar names and obscure bit-part Liverpool ones:

Milner* (4.8), Mustafi (4.9), Gomez (5.0), Azpili (5.1), Jones (5.1)

Big Phil continues to beast via being in both lists.

Feel free to criticise, suggest, comment etc. I'll try to post an updated list every 5-6 gameweeks.

[baganboy]

Just a small point here. Seems Maguire's BPS potential would be affected by Evan's arrival? Both being BPS magnets is not good for either.

[blahblah]

A lot of CB's as top bananas?

Top banana info though, as a fair few could struggle to start this season, and that is not just Everton, lol.

[Mav3rick]

It's amazing that Sakho is so much better than his team mates, not only that but his BPS score translated into BPs too. He only played half a season yet only Jones, Otamaendi and Azpil earned more BPs last season.

[blahblah]

They were pants for his half too? I didn't pay any attention to whether he played in the latter part as any return was too late for me so I had the awesome Tomkins, who opened his account with 15 points and became almost unbenchable....

[Pulpy]

It's amazing that Sakho is so much better than his team mates, not only that but his BPS score translated into BPs too. He only played half a season yet only Jones, Otamaendi and Azpil earned more BPs last season.

I suppose Zaha was involved in a good percentage of Palace's goals whilst not excelling in the bonus. This perhaps gave Sakho the opportunity to score bonus points at the expense of Zaha. If Zaha continues to be the main man in terms of the Palace attack (and continues to struggle to achieve the bonus points you would expect) Sakho could easily score really well again.

Plenty of good choices in the Palace defence though they still need a reasonable number of clean sheets for any of them to prove the potentially strong picks they look.

I wonder in general if another use of this list could be picking midfielders, forwards and even goalkeepers with less competition for bonus (in another words who don't play for the same team as a defender who does particularly well)?

[Hotstepper]

It's amazing that Sakho is so much better than his team mates, not only that but his BPS score translated into BPs too. He only played half a season yet only Jones, Otamaendi and Azpil earned more BPs last season.

I suppose Zaha was involved in a good percentage of Palace's goals whilst not excelling in the bonus. This perhaps gave Sakho the opportunity to score bonus points at the expense of Zaha. If Zaha continues to be the main man in terms of the Palace attack (and continues to struggle to achieve the bonus points you would expect) Sakho could easily score really well again.

Plenty of good choices in the Palace defence though they still need a reasonable number of clean sheets for any of them to prove the potentially strong picks they look.

I wonder in general if another use of this list could be picking midfielders, forwards and even goalkeepers with less competition for bonus (in another words who don't play for the same team as a defender who does particularly well)?

Could Zaha's re-classification as a striker up his bonus potential, and therefore have a knock-on effect on his team mates?

[Zimmerman]

I seem to think someone has already work out what he’d have got had he been a striker last year.

Will see if I can find it

EDIT: see the top of page 3
viewtopic.php?f=99&t=127850&hilit=Zaha&start=60

[Hotstepper]

I seem to think someone has already work out what he’d have got had he been a striker last year.

Will see if I can find it

EDIT: see the top of page 3
viewtopic.php?f=99&t=127850&hilit=Zaha&start=60

Cracking bit of analysis that. Plus of course your excavation skills. Cheers

[Stemania]

As promised, an update after six gameweeks; as usual the stat displayed is 'minutes per Baseline BPS' (to one decimal place) with yellow/red card effects removed, so the lower the number the better. I've only included those players who have started at least half of the games so far:

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Team 1st (2nd, 3rd, ...)

ARS : Mustafi 5.74, (Bellerín 6.43, Sokratis 7.19, Monreal 7.76)

BHA : Dunk 6.79, (Montoya 7.38, Duffy 7.83, Bong 8.03)

BOU : Rico 6.08, (Cook 6.21, Aké 7.20, Smith 7.28, Daniels 8.44)

BUR : Mee 5.93, (Tarkowski 6.35, Lowton 6.43, Ward 6.57, Taylor 6.79)

CAR: Bennett 7.03, (Manga 7.83, Morrison 8.85, Bamba 9.78)

CHE : Azpilicueta 5.35, (Rüdiger 5.58, Luiz 6.07, Alonso 6.07)

CPL : Wan-Bissaka 5.18, (Tomkins 5.37, Sakho 5.57, Van Aanholt 6.74, Schlupp 12.04)

EVE : Digne 4.26, (Keane 5.98, Holgate 6.46, Baines 7.10, Coleman 7.35, Zouma 7.53)

FUL: Le Marchand 4.86, (Bryan 5.07, Chambers 5.11, Mawson 5.77, Odoi 5.94, Fosu-Mensah 7.50)

HUD : Lowe 6.43, (Zanka 7.18, Schindler 7.30, Kongolo 7.68, Hadergjonaj 9.69)

LEI : Maguire 5.45, (Chilwell 6.28, Pereira 6.43, Morgan 8.69)

LIV : Gomez 5.16, (Robertson 5.51, van Dijk 5.87, Alexander-Arnold 7.67)

MCI : Mendy 4.80, (Stones 5.02, Laporte 6.75, Walker 6.92)

MUN : Valencia 5.70, (Smalling 5.81, Lindelof 5.95, Shaw 6.62)

NEW : Fernández 6.67, (Lascelles 7.23, Dummett 7.61, Clark 7.62, Yedlin 12.47)

SOT : Vestergaard 6.43, (Cedric 6.66, Hoedt 7.94, Bertrand 9.31)

TOT : Vertonghen 5.19, (Alderweireld 5.31, Davies 5.33, DSanchez 5.40, Trippier 5.66, Rose 7.51)

WAT : Janmaat 5.87, (Cathcart 6.56, Holebas 6.85, Kabasele 10.80)

WHU : Balbuena 5.40, (Rice 5.77, Zabaleta 6.92, Diop 8.18, Fredericks 10.00)

WOL: Boly 5.93, (Coady 6.67, Bennett 7.01, Jonny 7.04, Doherty 11.04)
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Underlined is anyone who's started all 6 of the 6 games. All the usual small sample size stuff etc.

Standouts?

Not many massive BPS standouts so far - in terms of putting up great numbers there are plenty (e.g. Mendy's 4.8 is sensational, Digne's 4.26 is madness), but many of the players who've done well also have teammates who've done reasonably well. Being a good distance ahead of all teammates is what really separates the (non-attacking contribution) bonus getters, and we're probably talking about the following in that regard (so far):

Mustafi (ARS), Dunk (BHA), Bennett (CAR), Digne (EVE), Lowe (HUD), Maguire (LEI), Janmaat (WAT) & Boly (WOL).

As usual this doesn't tell the full story, as in order to get BPS in a 0-0 draw you also need to beat the opposition defender's BPS scores. Some teams continue to be very poor. The best performing players in the whole league so far are a strange mix of City and Fulham players with a mad Digne performance.

Digne 4.26, Mendy 4.80, Le Marchand 4.86, Stones 5.02, Bryan 5.07, Chambers 5.11

Very early days so I doubt this is particularly representative yet. Some big names have maintained their status (Azpili, Maguire etc) and some have taken a big hit - noticeably Sakho's potential at Palace has been severely tempered by the emergence of AWB as a bonus magnet, Vestergaard has so far taken over from Hoedt as the main Southampton BPS man, Schindler has dropped right back during a poor spell for Huddersfield (maybe the two things are related!) and BPS legend Jones is out the United team for now. Janmaat has essentially replaced Femenia both in his team and on the lists.

Finally, I noticed today that FFS have this season included a M/BBBS stat in their selection, making much of this thread a little redundant compared to previous years - so maybe I won't update quite so often. With that in mind, feel free to scrutinise/suggest away.

[Stu255]

I did something similar to this a while ago but with a completely different method and not using mins / bps but some other metric (I prefer using mins as you have done here).

Once I had quantified the players I was looking at, I did a second step which was to assess each player v's their teammates. Because to convert bps to BP you have to outperform the other guys. Well you share the pitch with your teammates every single week so it makes sense to try and find someone with a clear bps advantage over their team rather than a raw high bps figure (as you have done here).

As there are 3 BP slots available this can get complicated fast but you basically want a huge bps gap between the guy who is ranked #1 in his team and the guy ranked #4.
It takes a bit of finesse but it's worth doing the comparisons to see if you have 2 guys competing for 5BP most weeks or 4 guys competing for 6BP.

What you really want is to plot all the players at a club for bps on a curve and look for teams where that curve is a hockey stick.

I wasn't looking at defenders in particular, but Fulham stood out for me (a clear bps hockey stick) where Mitrovic and Seri collect almost all of Fulham's BP between the two of them. Both have approx double the bps of anyone else in the team. Mitrovic bps is dependent on goals and when he is top bps there is plenty of overkill. So I expect Seri to top the Fulham bps rank >50% of the time.

I already have Seri and I use him in games where I expect Fulham to get a good share of possession. I won't pick him against Chelsea, MCI or Liverpool.
Also I plan to get Mitrovic after GW9 as part of my move to swap Kane Salah.

[blahblah]

That Digne figure is crazy - so far ahead of the other Everton defenders...... Can any Everton watchers enlighten me\us on what he is doing so right?

[silversurfer19]

That Digne figure is crazy - so far ahead of the other Everton defenders...... Can any Everton watchers enlighten me\us on what he is doing so right?

As good as Baines has been over the past decade we was well as his best. Digne I think has claimed LB now with a string of good performances. He is solid defensively, has whipped in quite a few cracking crosses which have just needed a bit more composure in front of goal as well as creating a great little partnership with Richarlison. Coleman being out has aided this as more attacks are going through his side now. He will get quite a few assists this season when w get going eventually. Definitely one of the highlights of our season thus far and the stand out defender (though Keane has been a huge improvement). I think his bps reflect all this.

On a side note, Janmaat out for 6 weeks, chance for Kiko/ Navarro (both £4.3m) to claim his spot and his bps with it?

[blahblah]

Thanks, and good point re Coleman, do you think this is impacting on Walcott? Oh and why no Lookman

Bstrd re Kiko though as I'm confused enough

[zipnolan]

On a peripheral note, I was at Selhurst Park last week and AWB was by far the best player on the pitch (Zaha included). Not just a BPS magnet in the curious sense of Sakho, but a genuine talent.

[blahblah]

Same from my TV eye test, and that includes the match he missed and CP missed his attacking threat. If Benteke was any good he would have assists from crosses too. Hmmm, is Wickham nearly fit again?

[silversurfer19]

Thanks, and good point re Coleman, do you think this is impacting on Walcott? Oh and why no Lookman

Bstrd re Kiko though as I'm confused enough

I'm suspect it has a had an impact as while Coleman, until the injury, had not been having the best of seasons, his relationship with Walcott has definitely been one of the few positives of 2018. Kenny has been OK in his absence, but I suspect Walcott is having to assist more defensively to help him out, and there is certainly a move to use our left side much more.

In regards to Lookman, I suspect he may leave in January or close season. He has wanted away since early last season, and while Silva has insisted he is part of his plans, I think his attitude must be affecting his game time and even then when he has been on he has offered very little. With Richarlison, Walcott, Bernard and even DCL as options out wide, I think Lookman is on borrowed time and certainly not an option FPL wise.

[blahblah]

Shame as he has impressed me when I have watched him. Maybe he wants to go back to Germany? But personally I'd start him over Theo.

Interesting that you think Kenny is worse defensively than Coleman.

[silversurfer19]

Yeah, I think Lookman was hoping to head back to Leipzig in the summer and has perhaps been sulking ever since. I, and I suspect most Evertonians would play Walcott every time in preference to Lookman also. While he has not quite been as composed as we would like him to be (and I would think many Gunners would agree with this), he has definitely been an upgrade on what has been our RW prior to his signing.

And while Coleman is definitely a better attacking fullback than defensive, he has much better positional sense than Kenny (which again was exposed for the offside goal on Sunday), and because of this Walcott is having to help out a little more than he would like.

[Stemania]

Apologies for not having time to update this, but the half-way point of the season seems as good a time as any. As usual, the stat displayed is 'minutes per Baseline BPS' (to one decimal place) with yellow/red card effects removed, so the lower the number the better. As mentioned earlier, FFS do their own M/BPS stat now, so this thread is not as useful as previous anyway.

I've only included those players who have started at least 8 games so far:

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Team 1st (2nd, 3rd, ...)

ARS : Holding 6.02, (Mustafi 6.05, Sokratis 6.24, Kolasinac 6.58, Monreal 6.91, Bellerín 7.27)

BHA : Bernardo 6.87, (Montoya 6.97, Dunk 7.00, Bruno 7.07, Duffy 7.10, Bong 8.34)

BOU : Aké 6.43, (Francis 6.72, Cook 6.76, Daniels 7.00, A Smith 7.12)

BUR : Taylor 6.92, (Lowton 7.01, Mee 7.13, Tarkowski 7.69)

CAR : Bennett 7.30, (Bamba 7.40, Manga 7.57, Morrison 8.58)

CHE : Azpilicueta 5.39, (Luiz 5.89, Rüdiger 6.37, Alonso 6.43)

CPL : Sakho 5.74, (Wan-Bissaka 5.82, Tomkins 6.62, Van Aanholt 7.44)

EVE : Digne 5.63, (Keane 6.42, Zouma 6.56, Coleman 7.48)

FUL : Le Marchand 5.99, (Odoi 6.27, Bryan 6.62, Chambers 6.57, Mawson 6.97, Ream 7.01, Christie 8.61)

HUD : Zanka 6.43, (Lowe 6.88, Hadergjonaj 7.25, Durm 7.37, Schindler 7.79, Kongolo 8.48)

LEI : Maguire 5.59, (Pereira 7.37, Morgan 8.29, Chilwell 8.35)

LIV : van Dijk 5.58, (Robertson 5.74, Gomez 5.95 , Alexander-Arnold 6.60)

MCI : Mendy 5.36, (Stones 5.51, Walker 6.19, Laporte 6.26)

MUN : Lindelof 6.30, (Young 6.98, Shaw 7.26, Smalling 7.49)

NEW : Clark 6.40, (Fernández 6.50, Lascelles 6.53, Dummett 7.26, Yedlin 9.16)

SOT : Vestergaard 5.89, (Yoshida 6.51, Hoedt 7.01, Cedric 7.27, Bertrand 8.44)

TOT : Sanchez 5.37, (Alderweireld 5.55, Trippier 5.89, Davies 6.21, Vertonghen 6.28, Rose 7.73)

WAT : Femenía 6.06, (Holebas 7.03, Cathcart 7.34, Kabasele 10.64)

WHU : Rice 5.69, (Balbuena 6.38, Zabaleta 6.47, Diop 6.48)

WOL : Boly 6.17, (Coady 6.38, Jonny 7.14, Bennett 7.86, Doherty 8.07)

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Underlined is anyone who's started at least 15 of the 19 games. All the usual small sample size stuff etc applies.

Standouts?

No players are quite at the sub 5m/bps levels we've seen from some players in the past, but there are a few standouts. Being a good distance ahead of all teammates is what really separates the (non-attacking contribution) bonus getters, so we're talking about the following in that regard (so far):

Digne (EVE), Maguire (LEI), Lindelof (MUN), Vestergaard (SOT), Femenia (WAT) & Rice (WHU).

Digne and Maguire are of particular interest as they also provide additional attacking threat. On the other hand, the best performing players in the whole league so far are:

Mendy 5.36, Sanchez 5.37, Azpilicueta 5.39, Stones 5.51, Alderweireld 5.55

It's a particular surprise to see Alderweireld there as for the last few seasons he's consistently been one of the poorer bonus-getters.

[Joccki_10]

Sakho still above Wan-Bissaka surprises me. And Azpilicueta still flying? Did he get any bonus this season?