2018/19 Mid-price forwards 6.5-8.0

[blahblah]

I'm starting to think this is the Boselli category.

Arnie apparently free to leave, well not for nothing lol.
Zaha looking to move and Germany likely.
Tosun may not start?
Benteke is erm Benteke...

[NickoWAFC]

Tammy Abraham not listed yet. He'd be good for someone at the right price if he ain't as heavily relied on as last season at Swansea.

is he still in the premier? I heard he'd gone to Bristol city.

[Gambit]

I'm starting to think this is the Boselli category.

Arnie apparently free to leave, well not for nothing lol.
Zaha looking to move and Germany likely.
Tosun may not start?
Benteke is erm Benteke...

If Arnie and Zaha stay they are great options, both the best players at their clubs and the talisman. Obviously a problem if they leave but it would depend where they went, from an FPL point of view it would need to be somewhere where they would still be key players, so Zaha to Spurs and Arnie to United (both stories from the last week or so) would be a disaster really.

Must admit I've gone cold on Tosun, think they will sign another striker.

[blahblah]

Yep, as above "starting to think"....

On the basis that it will be easier to put one in than take out, I am out of this price point\bracket atm and gone down to Niasse as a marker for Mitrovic, with Kamara far from off my radar at 4.5m.

The Mids up to 7.5m look so much more realistic, imho.

[ZeroRemorse]

Are Watford going to sign a forward with the Richarlison money? I'm hoping they get a good striker in. They could do a job up front for me with those fixtures.

[Stocker16]

Arnie apparently free to leave

Let me just put this to bed and said this is unequivocally not true

There’s no concern amongst hammers that he’s free to leave

[Gambit]

Zaha had a good game today, scored a nice goal and caused havoc 2nd half

[Beacon]

I’m seriously tempted to start Zaha and Arnie. They’re the form forwards so far in preseason and will be the main men at their clubs. It frees up a serious amount of money for the rest of the squad. I know it makes it tricky to upgrade should a couple of the premiums start banging them in but worse case you can WC or use your third slot for who looks best. Plus the potential for the extra scoring power of your squad as a whole should make up for it. A drawback could be restricting your captaincy choices but given you’ll have the third forward as a premium and possibly three premium midfielders that shouldn’t be an issue.

[Pulpy]

Arnie is carrying on pre season where he left off last year. Very tempting but the fixtures are not kind. King at Bournemouth is an interesting alternative, their first three fixtures look more than decent for a forward.

So Arnie form, King fixtures. Fixtures are less of an issue for attacking assets but I think the games against the top six clubs probably put a ceiling on Arnie's performance. More likely to get the odd goal rather than a haul and more competition for bonus points from the opposition in fixtures against the big six?

[Resonare]

I'm going for King and Tosen atm.

King, for me, is fpl gold. A player who has consistently delivered points when starting for multiple seasons. He was arguably going to play with Stanislas fit, but without him he seems a sure starter either as a striker or as a 10. With good fixtures and a high ceiling he seems a no-brainer to me.

Tosen is more of a punt who I've chosen for similar reasons to Aubameyang. When he played last season, he delivered points, and he opens with great fixtures. At exactly 7.0, he's an easy switch out to Zaha or Arnie while alternative cover in Richarlison and Siggy are priced awkwardly at 6.5 and 8.5.

[Stemania]

I've become pretty convinced on starting with Arnautovic despite the fixtures. They've made some great midfield signings to support him and he's been in excellent form in the friendlies.

[Finisher1]

I've become pretty convinced on starting with Arnautovic despite the fixtures. They've made some great midfield signings to support him and he's been in excellent form in the friendlies.

If only Tosun seems nailed he is by far superior pick than Arnautovic to me. Fixtures are simply so remarkably better.

I don't give much credit for a simple goal record against weak oppositions in training matches. I don't think it tells much. I would give credit for an eye test from those matches, but I haven't watched any of those matches.

[Jamtart]

I've got Arnautovic in a form over fixtures pick. If he scores again today I won't even consider taking him out. He plays for an attack minded manager who has brought in attacking wide players to compliment his main goal threat and got returns against some of the bigger teams last season. Not to mention he's on fire in pre-season, following on from a great surge late last season.

Tosun is a good shout but with Richarlison already in my team and Niasse a threat to his game time I don't see him as being as good a pick.

Zaha is the only player I would consider over Arnautovic - unless Austin is nailed.

[Finisher1]

I've got Arnautovic in a form over fixtures pick. If he scores again today I won't even consider taking him out.

Well, I usually determine "form" based on underlying stats and eye test. I don't give much credit for a simple goals scored stat especially when it's against very weak teams in training matches.

Also I don't know what difference a goal today makes? If he scores today you won't consider taking him out, but if he hits a post you still consider it? I think it's much more relevant how he actually plays today and does he seem like he is likely to score.

[Jamtart]

I've got Arnautovic in a form over fixtures pick. If he scores again today I won't even consider taking him out.

Well, I usually determine "form" based on underlying stats and eye test. I don't give much credit for a simple goals scored stat especially when it's against very weak teams in training matches.

Also I don't know what difference a goal today makes? If he scores today you won't consider taking him out, but if he hits a post you still consider it? I think it's much more relevant how he actually plays today and does he seem like he is likely to score.

Was partly exaggeration but that seems to have been lost in context. However, surely actual goals scored must be important to you? Maybe I'm looking at it too much from a football point of view compared to a stats heavy fpl view.

But he's scoring goals - even if it's against weaker opposition he's putting it in the back of the net regular and is high on confidence. Tosun isn't, apart from against the weakest of the weak in a 22-0 drubbing.

As I also said (but you don't seem to have taken into account) - Tosun isn't secured on game time. Him and Niasse have been rotating all pre season and have very similar game time, so it's unclear who will start and even then if they'll play the 90 regularly. This is the main reason Tosun is not in my team from the start.

Perhaps there's some underlying stats from the friendlies that show Tosun is a better pick? I'm not against the idea and would love to proven wrong so that I could make a more informed pick.

[Finisher1]

Was partly exaggeration but that seems to have been lost in context. However, surely actual goals scored must be important to you? Maybe I'm looking at it too much from a football point of view compared to a stats heavy fpl view.

Actual goals scored in just a few matches are not important to me. In short term they are suspect to huge variance and randomness. The same is true to underlying stats to some extent, but I think underlying stats generally tell by far a more accurate story about how a player has actually performed. For example Gomis scored in four consecutive matches in season 2015-16 if I recall it right, yet his underlying stats were piss poor so everyone knew it won't last. Obviously Arnautovic is PL-proven player unlike Gomis, but this Gomis example just tells how misleading a simple goals scored metric can be in a short term.

As I also said (but you don't seem to have taken into account) - Tosun isn't secured on game time. Him and Niasse have been rotating all pre season and have very similar game time, so it's unclear who will start and even then if they'll play the 90 regularly. This is the main reason Tosun is not in my team from the start.

Perhaps there's some underlying stats from the friendlies that show Tosun is a better pick? I'm not against the idea and would love to proven wrong so that I could make a more informed pick.

Of course I noticed your comment on Niasse, I just had nothing to contest about it.

[Jamtart]

Was partly exaggeration but that seems to have been lost in context. However, surely actual goals scored must be important to you? Maybe I'm looking at it too much from a football point of view compared to a stats heavy fpl view.

Actual goals scored in just a few matches are not important to me. In short term they are suspect to huge variance and randomness. The same is true to underlying stats to some extent, but I think underlying stats generally tell by far a more accurate story about how a player has actually performed. And obviously I appreciate eye test as well.

As I also said (but you don't seem to have taken into account) - Tosun isn't secured on game time. Him and Niasse have been rotating all pre season and have very similar game time, so it's unclear who will start and even then if they'll play the 90 regularly. This is the main reason Tosun is not in my team from the start.

Perhaps there's some underlying stats from the friendlies that show Tosun is a better pick? I'm not against the idea and would love to proven wrong so that I could make a more informed pick.

Of course I noticed your comment on Niasse, I just had nothing to contest about it.

Without this turning into an argument - what is it that has made you think Tosun is the best pick?

You've contested my points for why I favour Arnautovic - which is fair enough. I enjoy debating picks its the whole reason for the forum in my eyes - if people all agreed it would be boring but it's interesting to see different views and reasoning behind player choice. But you haven't told me why you prefer Tosun?

You've acknowledged that his game time is under threat, which is why I'm completely avoiding, and I know his fixtures are amazing. But with Richarlison nailed on, a favourite of Silva and a proven threat in Silva's system I think he's the best pick out of the Everton attack and can't see the need to double up on them from the kick off.

I'm not trying to make you change your mind, I'm just curious why you've come to the decision you have since you have mentioned underlying stats etc. I may well be missing something that could be of benefit to my season.

[Billy Bongo]

Arnautovic is a great choice based on consistent form

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[Finisher1]

Without this turning into an argument - what is it that has made you think Tosun is the best pick?

Not the best pick, just better than Arnautovic.

Fixtures mainly. And the fact that I know he is a decent player, even if he hasn't scored in short term.

I might well go without him anyway, I only said I'd pick him over Arnautovic. I will likely have Richarlison in any case, regardless of what I decide on Tosun.

[yordani]

Any thoughts on Mitrovic? 6,5 M seems overpriced to me...

[Billy Bongo]

Tosun is only better than Arnaud as a pick die to fixtures, which is fine. But I've always trusted form first

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[rootcoors]

Any thoughts on Mitrovic? 6,5 M seems overpriced to me...

If he starts the season the way he ended last season for Fulham then its not a bad price to be honest. They do have a couple of hard away games in the first 5 weeks though.

[rootcoors]

Tosun is only better than Arnaud as a pick die to fixtures, which is fine. But I've always trusted form first

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100% agree with this, form goes a long way. West Ham are playing well in pre-season as a team and although on paper it might look like they have hard fixtures, I can see him scoring in 3 of the first 5 fixtures potentially and then the following 2 games are very hard but they are at home and if they have every chance of getting something from it.

Based on the way Arnie has played pre-season its hard to overlook him in this price bracket that's for sure. Only Zaha makes me consider going with someone else up top.

[tommygun25]

Any thoughts on Mitrovic? 6,5 M seems overpriced to me...

Fancy him to hit the ground running - seems like a fair price based on his previous stats - looks like a card magnet only thing that may put me off.

[blahblah]

Any thoughts on Mitrovic? 6,5 M seems overpriced to me...

Fancy him to hit the ground running - seems like a fair price based on his previous stats - looks like a card magnet only thing that may put me off.

I was hoping he would be less and comparable to the Wolves forwards. It's either him and 4.5m Mid or Kamara and 6.5m Mid, where there is plenty of choice...

[Vsz]

Any thoughts on Mitrovic? 6,5 M seems overpriced to me...

If he starts the season the way he ended last season for Fulham then its not a bad price to be honest. They do have a couple of hard away games in the first 5 weeks though.

Won't he start off with 3 home fixtures in a row as Spurs stadium not ready?

[Finisher1]

Tosun is only better than Arnaud as a pick die to fixtures, which is fine. But I've always trusted form first

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100% agree with this, form goes a long way. West Ham are playing well in pre-season as a team and although on paper it might look like they have hard fixtures, I can see him scoring in 3 of the first 5 fixtures potentially and then the following 2 games are very hard but they are at home and if they have every chance of getting something from it.

Based on the way Arnie has played pre-season its hard to overlook him in this price bracket that's for sure. Only Zaha makes me consider going with someone else up top.

I appreciate form as well, just not a form measured solely by goals scored in a few matches.

I personally can admit I have no idea how Arnautovic has played. Have you guys seen his recent pre-season matches? Do you know how he has performed?

[Billy Bongo]

Of course, I watch football every week, he was superb last season

You seem to think we are measuring form in pre season, i/we arent , pre season is just confirming hes continued where he left off


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[rootcoors]

Of course, I watch football every week, he was superb last season

You seem to think we are measuring form in pre season, i/we arent , pre season is just confirming hes continued where he left off


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Was just about to respond with something very similar.

He is the most consistently in-form forward in pre-season and I’m not just talking goals, in talking his movement and teamplay too. He is making it very hard to look past him.


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[Finisher1]

Of course, I watch football every week, he was superb last season

You seem to think we are measuring form in pre season, i/we arent , pre season is just confirming hes continued where he left off


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That doesn't make sense to me. Yes, he is class, he has made it clear in multiple PL seasons. So why do you need a goal count in a couple of pre-season matches to confirm this then?

Yes, it would be relevant if you had watched his pre-season matches and you had seen he's in outstanding shape and easily the best player on the field. But a simple goal count in a couple of matches adds very little to how I rate him.

But thanks for clarifying you don't know how he has performed in pre-season