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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

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Mav3rick
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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 01 Jul 2017, 22:08

What is Crack the Code?
For the last several seasons, organdonor47 and Rob have carried on the diligence and hard work of diamondplus, Flyman and the FISO boffins and have produced and maintained the FISO Crack the Code (CtC) website.

CtC is a free tool provided to help FPL managers. It is able to show you:
  • Which players are likely to rise or to fall in price
  • The number of transfers in or out today for any player
  • The season long price history for all players, including the dates of any previous price rises or falls
  • An estimate of the ownership level for each player over the whole season
  • A history of all flags and any injury news applied to each player over the whole season
CtC is updated automatically every 30 mins with new data. If you notice a glitch in the updates or an error with the website, please report it by posting in this thread.

Accessing CtC
Click here to access CtC for the 2017/18 season

WARNING: FPL have removed data that enabled CtC to predict risers and fallers with a good degree of accuracy. As such, the current version of CtC is only to be used as a guide. Being able to reliably predict future changes is extremely challenging and based on limited data and assumptions.

History of CtC
CtC has been running for over 10 years with the first attempts to understand and predict price rises on FISO made during the 2006/07 season. Here are archived threads from past seasons.
CtC 2016/17CtC 2015/16CtC 2014/15CtC 2013/14CtC 2012/13
CtC 2011/12CtC 2010/11CtC 2009/10CtC 2008/09CtC 2007/08
CtC Original Thread
Roll of Honour
CtC has been built and maintained by a great many users during it's long and proud history. This is the list of members who have contributed to either the identification of the algorithm, the automation of the stats gathering process or the production and running of CtC itself.

Any missing credits should be notified to the moderator team, who will add the names.

In alphabetical order, CtC has been made possible by the efforts of:
Benj987, Black_Horse, dandg, diamondplus, jamgillespie, ferg, Flyman, garypallister, Glasgowlatic, JMW123, lucanjerry, ludermor, malefice, MrSmedley, nash0819, organdonor47, redrum, reds363, reg, Rob, RomynPG, slarty, squealy, Stuboy, Tort, viddleodge, whuuf, Wyld.

Special credit goes to diamondplus, lucanjerry, organdonor47, Rob, slarty who have made particularly large contribuitions over the years.

More information about price rises
The posts below contain useful information on price change related information:

Information about the FPL Price Change Algorithm
Alternative Sources of Price Change Information
FPL Strategies Influenced or Defined by Price Changes

This is a community thread, so feel free to question, correct and discuss all aspects of CtC, price changes and their effect on FPL strategy.

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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 01 Jul 2017, 22:09

Information about the FPL Price Change Algorithm

Note that this guide borrows from the excellent work done by reds363 in the 2010/11 season. I am updating as best I can with what we believe to be true in 2017. If you spot a discrepancy or inaccuracy, report it by posting below and I'll update this post.

As you may be aware already, the prices of players in FPL can vary throughout the season. Players can rise or drop in price dependent on the number of managers buying or selling a particular player. When a player is transferred in by a lot of managers, then his price may rise, and similarly if a player is transferred out by a lot of managers then his price may drop.

FPL closely guard the exact algorithm that decides if and when players rise or drop in price, but over the years many of the rules have been reverse engineered and a list of what we believe to be true currently is shown below. I say what "we believe to be true" since FPL have never confirmed or denied any of these assumptions, and FPL Towers would be free to add or remove rules at any time.

The basic rules - price changes

Q: How often do players change in price?
A: Players can change in price once per day (by 0.1m) either rising or falling by that amount. Players cannot rise or fall more than once in a single day. Additionally, a player can only rise (or fall) 3 times in a given gameweek.

Q: At what time do players change in price?
A: There's no set time, although usually price changes all happen in one go at 01:00am GMT (02:00am BST). However, this is not a hard and fast rule and sometimes price changes have occured later than this time. You should assume price changes could occur in a window between 00.30am and 03.30am GMT.

Q: What causes a player to rise in price?
A: The simple answer is transfers in cause a player to increase in price, however the precise answer is a little more nuanced that that. A player will rise in price when his "Net Transfers In (NTI)" (that is his total transfers in minus his transfers out) hits a certain threshold.

The threshold can change through the season depending on the number of active managers in FPL, and FPL themselves may tweak the number to make price changes more or less aggressive. This season, the threshold started at around 55,000, while last season (2016/17) the NTI threshold varied through the season from around 45,000 to 21,500. That means that once a player's ownership has grown by the threshold (let's say 55,000) then he will rise in price by 0.1m (there is more to the precise answer than that, please see the advanced rules section below for details if you are interested).

Q: What causes a player to drop in price?
This is similar to rises, except that for a price drop to occur a threshold of "Net Transfers Out (NTO)" (that is his total transfers out minus his transfers in) must be breached. The exact level of the NTO threshold for any given player is the lower number of either:

1) The negative of the NTI threshold value (for players who have already risen in price during the season)
2) OR 10% of their ownership (for players who are at or below their season starting price)

The key difference between rises and drops is that the price rise threshold is the same for all players while the number of transfers required to affect a price drop is different for each player. We also believe that there are differences in how multiple price drops or multiple price rises within a single GW work (please see the advanced rules section for details on that).

The basic rules - flags & price protection

Q: Can flagged players drop in price?
Yes!! When a player is flagged in FPL (either red, orange or yellow) then they can still change in price. A flagged player is not protected from price drops, however the NTO threshold does increase under certain circumstances. That means that a flagged player may require more NTOs to effect a drop, but that they can still drop!

The exact rules in this area are not 100% known, but to the best of our current knowledge the following is true;
  • A player with a red flag will have roughly between 2x and 3x his usual NTI/NTO target. This exact value of the multiplier can vary for individual players and circumstances, but the thing we're quite certain of is that a red flag does increase the required threshold.
  • Red flags (injury) - a popular (i.e. well owned) player red-flagged due to injury could have as much as a 3x multiplier on his usual NTO/NTI target. For lesser owned players, we think this reduces to around 2x the NTI/NTO threshold. Very low ownership players have a threshold around 2.5x.
  • Red flags (suspension) - a player red-flagged with a suspension appears to have a multiplier somewhere between 2x and 2.5x his usual NTI/NTO target. Note that this could be less than the multiplier for an injured player.
  • Orange and yellow flags do not, we think, alter the NTI/NTO threshold. In past seasons there did used to be a multiplier on orange or yellow flags, but we think this no longer applies and therefore NTO/NTI targets for yellow or orange flagged players are the same as for unflagged players.
Q: Can flagged players still rise in price?
In theory, yes. The NTI threshold for a price rise is not believed to be affected by a flag. However in practice, the behaviour of FPL managers is such that flagged players are rarely in Net Transfer In territory so the theory is rarely tested.

Q: Are players that have been unflagged protected from price changes?
This depends on the nature of the unflagging.
Red (for more than 2 days) => Clear: A player will enjoy 8 days of price protection and cannot rise or fall in price during this window.
Yellow => Clear: There is no price change protection.
Orange => Clear: There is no price change protection.
Red => Orange/Yellow => Clear: There is no price change protection.

CtC will show you when a player was unflagged, and how long their protection window (if applicable) lasts for.

Q: Are newly transferred players price protected?
If a player is newly added to FPL (perhaps he joined in the January transfer window for example) then he would be price protected for 8 days. If he has just transferred between clubs (and he already existed in FPL) then he would not be price protected.

The advanced rules - price changes

Q: Are the NTI/NTO thresholds constant?
FPL may change the thresholds at any time, but we generally believe that the threshold is related to the number of active managers in the game. Since the number of active managers decreases during the season, then the NTI/NTO thresholds may change. CtC keeps track of this for you, however, so you don't have to adjust for this yourself.

Q: When calculating price changes, do wildcard transfers count?
No. This is one of the reasons that CtC is a guide rather than a definitive resource for price rises - not all transfers in are equal (in terms of contributing to price rises) and the data visible to CtC does not allow us to determine which transfers do contribute to the NTI/NTO threshold.

The main issue is Wildcard transfers in/out, which are thought not to count toward the NTI/NTO threshold, are not published by FPL. When we talk of the NTI threshold, we mean net transfers in excluding wildcards. The assessment of how close a player is to a rise or drop therefore requires CtC to make an estimate of the ratio of the two types of transfer accrued by any given player.

Q: If a player is way over their NTI threshold and changes in price, what happens to all the extra transfers?
This is probably best illustrated with an example. So, lets assume that a player requires 55,000 NTI to achieve a price rise. Let's also assume that he receives 40,000 NTI every day. By the end of day 2, our player has received 80,000 NTI and he therefore qualifies for a price rise of 0.1.

At this point, because his price changed, then his current NTI number is reset to 0 and so the extra 25,000 NTI that our player had are, in effect, lost and will not contribute at all to his next potential price rise.

Q: If a player has risen once this gameweek, how many transfers are required for him to rise a second or third time in the same GW?
FPL apply what we call multipliers in this situation. So a player may require 55,000 NTI for his first rise, but that number will multiply to 2x the value (so 110k ADDITIONAL transfers) for each of the second and third rises.

Q: Do multipliers apply to drops?
We don't believe so. Remember that a player will drop when his NTO hits the lowest of

1) The negative of the NTI threshold value (for players who have already risen in price during the season)
2) OR 10% of their ownership (for players who are at or below their season starting price)

The critical difference between rises and drops appears to be that there is no multiplier applied to price drops. In practical terms, this means a player may drop in price faster than they rose, if they are above their season starting price.

Q: When are multipliers reset?
When the GW deadline passes any multipliers in effect are dropped. That means that players will once again just require the 55,000 NTI threshold to rise in price.

So if a player had risen in price last GW, but not reached the second rise threshold (due to the 2x multiplier being applied) but he was in excess of the basic NTI threshold, then he would be eligible for a price rise at the next price change window as his multiplier would have been removed meaning his current NTI would now be above the required threshold.

Q: What if a player has risen and fallen in the same GW?
This doesn't happen often, but we believe that the effect is to negate all the rules so you are effectively back to the start. Multipliers would not count, and your player would technically still be eligible for a further 3 rises (or drops).

Q: What about very low ownership players?
There is a belief that very low ownership players (perhaps below 1% owned in FPL) may have some slightly different rules, possibly to prevent too much price volatility. Low ownership players therefore may be slightly more susceptible to an unexpected price rise or drop, or may not rise or drop when predicted.

The advanced rules - flags & price protection

Q: When a player is unflagged, what happens to his NTI/NTO?
When a player goes from either red, orange or yellow flagged to clear, then his NTO or NTI at that time is reset to 0. That would mean that an unflagged player would have to breach the NTI/NTO threshold again to effect a price rise. If a player simply changes between flag colours his NTI/NTO tally is believed to be unaffected.

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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 01 Jul 2017, 22:09

Alternative Sources of Price Change Information

CtC is not the only game in town when it comes to tracking and predicting FPL price changes. No single price change site is 100% accurate so if a price issue is critical to you, it's worth keeping an eye on multiple sources in addition to CtC.

I'd currently recommend once price change site that is worthy of mention alongside CtC, and that is FPL Statistics.

It's most certainly worth having both CtC and FPLS bookmarked as your go-to price change predictors.

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CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 01 Jul 2017, 22:09

FPL Strategies Influenced or Defined by Price Changes

There are some common FPL strategies that are either driven by or heavily influenced from the FPL price change mechanisms. The relative strengths and weaknesses (or even overall viability) of these strategies can change entirely dependent on the circumstances of a season.

A few of the most frequently talked about price-related strategies are outlined below, it would be useful to debate their strengths and weaknesses in the circumstances that face us in the new season.

Wildcard Money Making
This is a strategic idea that has stuck from several years ago when it was a more viable strategy. The idea is that you play your wildcard in a week early in the season with the intention of playing the market. I.e. bringing in players that will rise twice, but who you don't want to keep, and then pocketing the 0.1 profit before finalising your real wildcard team. It's often said that playing a wildcard in an international break (when we have a two week window for transfer activity) is beneficial for this strategy. In truth, the transfer activity is usually so low during the middle week of an international break that it makes no difference. Traditionally, it was the fact more wildcards were played in IBs (often seen as a natural time to take stock) that was one of the main drivers to the strategy. But since wildcard transfers are now not believed to contribute to price changes the argument that more price-affecting transfers will be made during the IB is somewhat shakey.

In recent seasons, the price rises have been more controlled so the opportunity for playing the market has decreased. It's still worth considering anyway when you do play your wildcard, but really if you make an extra 0.1 these days then you will have done well.

Team Value Building
This is very common strategy, the basic premise being that you make deliberate calculated extra transfers (hits) in an attempt to follow the market and to build team value in the first half of the season. That team value is then, in theory, unleashed in the second half of the season where you can afford players more expensive than your rivals.

Last season (2016/17) Jonty from FFS coined the phrase "Super Teams" to describe those who had followed this strategy. The downside is that generally you'll be further behind having used transfer hits on players you may not have really wanted but had to get to follow the money.

There are more serious disadvantages though, most notably that seasonal circumstances (cheap, high scoring assets) have the ability to make this kind of strategy completely irrelevant.

Team Value Preservation
One of the key differences between price rises and drops last year seemed to be that drops could happen faster with popular players than rises. This meant that losing TV was a critical problem and the preservation of team value, especially early in the season, is something to be aware of.

Team value preservation, rather than team value building, is the defence against price drops of your season starting squad possibly at the expense of hits, and differs from TV building as it's less aggressive on the number of hits necessary and is generally less transfer intensive overall. This article on price changes early in the season is particularly interesting and concludes:
FantasyFootballPundits wrote:there is a drastically higher level of price drops in the early weeks of the season under the parameters in operation over the past two seasons. More than 6 drops to every price rise which is more than double the drop/rise ratio of the season overall.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby KingMaalik » 09 Jul 2017, 21:11

A big thank you to all of you guys...it's been a great help for years now...

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Johnno1234 » 02 Aug 2017, 22:44

Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Rob » 07 Aug 2017, 10:45

Johnno1234 wrote:
02 Aug 2017, 22:44
Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?
CTC should now be working and collecting data.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby andybarrell » 07 Aug 2017, 11:05

NICE
clean and sharp

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 09 Aug 2017, 20:36

Rob wrote:
07 Aug 2017, 10:45
CTC should now be working and collecting data.
Awesome, thanks Rob.

Have there been any changes from last season?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Johnno1234 » 11 Aug 2017, 20:02

Rob wrote:
07 Aug 2017, 10:45
Johnno1234 wrote:
02 Aug 2017, 22:44
Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?
CTC should now be working and collecting data.
Every NTI and Target% is zero at the moment, will it kick into action tonight/tomorrow do you think?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby nigeljdean » 11 Aug 2017, 21:11

Johnno1234 wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 20:02
Rob wrote:
07 Aug 2017, 10:45
Johnno1234 wrote:
02 Aug 2017, 22:44
Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?
CTC should now be working and collecting data.
Every NTI and Target% is zero at the moment, will it kick into action tonight/tomorrow do you think?
The NTI's and Target% are not populated until after the matches kick off., i.e. until after 8 pm. However, given it is now 9 pm, I would have expected the transfer information to have appeared by now.

Perhaps there is a problem on the main site? Hopefully all will be OK approximately an hour after tonight's match completes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Johnno1234 » 12 Aug 2017, 00:02

nigeljdean wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 21:11
Johnno1234 wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 20:02
Rob wrote:
07 Aug 2017, 10:45
Johnno1234 wrote:
02 Aug 2017, 22:44
Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?
CTC should now be working and collecting data.
Every NTI and Target% is zero at the moment, will it kick into action tonight/tomorrow do you think?
The NTI's and Target% are not populated until after the matches kick off., i.e. until after 8 pm. However, given it is now 9 pm, I would have expected the transfer information to have appeared by now.

Perhaps there is a problem on the main site? Hopefully all will be OK approximately an hour after tonight's match completes.
Doesn't seem to have happened unfortunately. Never mind, hopefully we don't miss any prices rises tonight anyway!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Johnno1234 » 12 Aug 2017, 09:23

Johnno1234 wrote:
12 Aug 2017, 00:02
nigeljdean wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 21:11
Johnno1234 wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 20:02
Rob wrote:
07 Aug 2017, 10:45
Johnno1234 wrote:
02 Aug 2017, 22:44
Thank you guys for so much hard work and effort, it makes FPL so much more enjoyable and I really appreciate it.

Do you know why CTC stopped working on May 4th at 16:00? Is it fixed and ready to go for 17/18?
CTC should now be working and collecting data.
Every NTI and Target% is zero at the moment, will it kick into action tonight/tomorrow do you think?
The NTI's and Target% are not populated until after the matches kick off., i.e. until after 8 pm. However, given it is now 9 pm, I would have expected the transfer information to have appeared by now.

Perhaps there is a problem on the main site? Hopefully all will be OK approximately an hour after tonight's match completes.
Doesn't seem to have happened unfortunately. Never mind, hopefully we don't miss any prices rises tonight anyway!
We're in business!

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Price Changes

Postby The Real Slim Shady » 15 Aug 2017, 04:50

Looks like Lukaku and Mkhitaryan are set to rise tomorrow (possibly Mounie & Davies too)

Hegazi, Salah, Vardy & Xhaka have already risen whilst Costa, Batshuayi, Sterling, Slimani and Iwobi have all dropped.

Be interesting to see how they function this year.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 17 Aug 2017, 06:59

Good few price drops happened over night, Austin Coutinho and Rondon could all be useful layer under the right circumstances.

There haven't really been that many price changes so far though I thought?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby blahblah » 17 Aug 2017, 08:06

15 have dropped, which is about right?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby garypallister » 18 Aug 2017, 08:39

.. Is there any general explanation to why the blue ones on the page do not rise ? some of them have stayed like this for days, not upset, just wondering

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby MoSe » 19 Aug 2017, 04:37

It's a few years, since I joined here, this has been the case for CTC.
Or anyway, more for CTC than for the other two mainly used prediction sites.
The others must have adopted corrections to better reflect changed conditions.
CTC formulas tendentially yield rather optimistic rise predictions

Anyway
After all, Benteke didn't fall :P

NameEventChange Date
Andrew RobertsonPrice fall from5.0 to 4.9 2017-08-19, 02:00
Theo WalcottPrice fall from7.5 to 7.4 2017-08-19, 02:00
Willian Borges Da SilvaPrice rise from7.0 to 7.1 2017-08-19, 02:00
Pedro Rodríguez LedesmaPrice fall from8.0 to 7.9 2017-08-19, 02:00
Diego Da Silva CostaPrice fall from9.9 to 9.8 2017-08-19, 02:00
Leroy SanéPrice fall from8.5 to 8.4 2017-08-19, 02:00
Jonjo ShelveyPrice fall from5.5 to 5.4 2017-08-19, 02:00
Shane LongPrice fall from6.0 to 5.92017-08-19, 02:00
Kieran TrippierPrice fall from5.5 to 5.4 2017-08-19, 02:00
Robert SnodgrassPrice fall from6.0 to 5.9 2017-08-19, 02:00
Jérémy PiedPrice fall from4.5 to 4.4 2017-08-19, 01:30

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby hancockjr » 25 Aug 2017, 06:56

Silvia went up last night when on FPL statistics at least he was well down the list.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 25 Aug 2017, 10:11

Yeah that was a bit of a surprise. Salah was notable as well for losing his previous price rise.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Stemania » 25 Aug 2017, 22:01

Just glancing at Nigel's numbers, there's a few rules that (he at least) seems to have confirmed are still in place this season and some oddness.

Drops:

Drop Thresholds are still 10%. Confirmed no multiplier for yellows or for 2nd drop in a week.
Suspended multiplier seems to be around 2 to 2.5 (Cases Cahill, Walker).
Injured multiplier seems to be around 3 for well owned (Case RLC 155396 delta and 1.3% to a drop, roughly 500k ownership) and 2 for not well owned (Case Klaasen 5753 delta and 36.1% to a drop, roughly 85k ownership). For very low ownership it's (Case Coleman) around 2.5. Weird (but the last two probably don't have 10% initial th due to low ownership, which will likely explain it). RLC's x3 looks pretty definitive though.

Rises:

Rise Thresholds are currently around 55k as per Nigel (we should probably update that in the OP).
Interestingly, Nigel has the threshold for a 2nd and 3rd rise as both 110k (Case Pogba 87105 delta and 21.9% to a rise) so no x3 for third rise, x2 for both.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 26 Aug 2017, 10:43

I've updated the post, but feel free to tweak anything I've missed.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby hancockjr » 26 Aug 2017, 21:55

Stemania wrote:
25 Aug 2017, 22:01
Just glancing at Nigel's numbers, there's a few rules that (he at least) seems to have confirmed are still in place this season and some oddness.

Drops:

Drop Thresholds are still 10%. Confirmed no multiplier for yellows or for 2nd drop in a week.
Suspended multiplier seems to be around 2 to 2.5 (Cases Cahill, Walker).
Injured multiplier seems to be around 3 for well owned (Case RLC 155396 delta and 1.3% to a drop, roughly 500k ownership) and 2 for not well owned (Case Klaasen 5753 delta and 36.1% to a drop, roughly 85k ownership). For very low ownership it's (Case Coleman) around 2.5. Weird (but the last two probably don't have 10% initial th due to low ownership, which will likely explain it). RLC's x3 looks pretty definitive though.

Rises:

Rise Thresholds are currently around 55k as per Nigel (we should probably update that in the OP).
Interestingly, Nigel has the threshold for a 2nd and 3rd rise as both 110k (Case Pogba 87105 delta and 21.9% to a rise) so no x3 for third rise, x2 for both.
Can you clarify 10% of what?

If a player has ownership of 10k at the start of the season, then 5k NTI in the first week, does his NTO from week 2 have to be:

A) 6k (all 5k NTI reversed out then 10% of his original 10k in addition)

B) 1.5k (10% of his week start ownership of 15k)

C) Something else

I'm amazed I don't know this, but equally I'm not sure the explanation above is clear on this.

Thanks in advance!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Mav3rick » 26 Aug 2017, 22:24

In that specific scenario it would be (A) 5k plus 10% of original ownership.

That's because the initial 5k NTI would need to be unwound before the price drop counter would start. If he'd taken 55k NTI and thus incurrred a rise, it would be 55k NTO required for the first drop and then 10% of ownership for the second drop.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Zimmerman » 27 Aug 2017, 21:55

never really used this... so apologies if these are stupid questions.

I can see Kane says he's at -266.6%
Will he still only drop by 0.1m tonight? Is the excess carried over to next week (or the next price drop)?

Similarly, Firmino is at 97.9% so he could be on the cusp of a rise.

Im tempted to chase/preserve my money by doing Kane -> Firmino but if there is only going to be a 0.1m swing might be risky?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby blahblah » 27 Aug 2017, 22:02

Fplstats have him at a lot less.

If he drops, any surplus NTO is discarded and after the drop starts collecting NTO's for another drop.

The first post has details of the new Threshold.

One thing to consider is the new GW, when new Thresholds are set, but NTO\I are not reset, so Saturday will see some mopping up of Rises\Drops.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby Vengeant87 » 28 Aug 2017, 10:11

Do anyone know how long it will take for a players price rise to be reflected in how much you can sell them for?

For example, Mkhi I can sell for 8.1 not 8.2; Eriksen 9.5 not 9.6, etc

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby blahblah » 28 Aug 2017, 10:13

However quickly they get the 2nd jump after you buy them.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby asm_fanz » 28 Aug 2017, 10:20

Vengeant87 wrote:
28 Aug 2017, 10:11
Do anyone know how long it will take for a players price rise to be reflected in how much you can sell them for?

For example, Mkhi I can sell for 8.1 not 8.2; Eriksen 9.5 not 9.6, etc
From the FPL rules:

Player prices change during the season dependent on the popularity of the player in the transfer market. Player prices do not change until the season starts.

The price shown on your transfers page is a player's selling price. This selling price may be less than the player's current purchase price as a sell-on fee of 50% (rounded up to the nearest £0.1m) will be applied on any profits made on that player.

For example, if you buy a player for £8.3m and when you transfer him his price is £9.0m, his selling price will be £8.6m.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2017/18 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy)

Postby MoSe » 28 Aug 2017, 10:29

wrote:
28 Aug 2017, 10:11
Do anyone know how long it will take for a players price rise to be reflected in how much you can sell them for?

For example, Mkhi I can sell for 8.1 not 8.2; Eriksen 9.5 not 9.6, etc
blahblah wrote: However quickly they get the 2nd jump after you buy them.
maybe he meant he's still expecting to sell Mkhi at 8.2 and Eriksen at 9.6.....

Vengeant, it's in FPL Rules.
You have to leave a Sell-On Fee
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/help#rules wrote:> Transfers
Player Prices
The price shown on your transfers page is a player's selling price. This selling price may be less than the player's current purchase price as a sell-on fee of 50% (rounded up to the nearest £0.1m) will be applied on any profits made on that player.

For example, if you buy a player for £8.3m and when you transfer him his price is £9.0m, his selling price will be £8.6m.
also, in the FAQs
Prices shown on the transfer page are players’ selling prices minus any sell-on fee.
To check the price you paid for a player, please use the list view on the transfers page.


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