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CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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Rob
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CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Rob »

Last season, organdonor47 and I have carried on the diligence and hard work of diamondplus, Flyman and the FISO boffins. We have been able to offer an explanation of FPL price changes and the World Famous 'FISO Crack the Code' site detailing potential price risers, fallers and those players who are protected.

A link to this year's CtC can be found here.

A link to Stuboy's HELP page is here
Please use this thread to ask CtC-related questions not answered in the FAQ above.

A link to last year's thread is here.

Those wishing to understand the mechanisms of FPL price changes can read what we understood to be the case (in the 10-11 season) in the first few posts of this thread.

Please keep this thread dedicated to Crack the Code debate, especially in the first few weeks when analysis is at its peak. Thank you.[/b]


THE FISO GUIDE TO FPL PLAYER PRICE CHANGES

Crack The Code is back for a new season! CTC is the was first the wondrous creation of FISO member diamondplus (to whom we are heavily indebted). Last season CTC was rebuilt and redesigned through some great work by organdonor47. CTC is based on calculations and deductions made by FISO boffins who have successfully worked out the vast majority of FPL's "secret" price-change algorithms! The site predicts which FPL players will rise and fall in price each day, and is a hugely valuable tool to many thousands of FPL managers worldwide!

In this opening post you'll find stuboy's FAQs and in the following posts is a more detailed explanation of the site.

This season's Price Change Site, aka "CrackTheCode", can be found HERE.


NOTES ABOUT THE CTC SITE:
! The CTC site is updated hourly.

! FPL.com price changes occur between 00:30 and 03:30 GMT/BST each day.

! The rise and the fall thresholds will vary over the season. Any changes to this algorithm will be reflected on the CTC site at the earliest opportunity. For this reason users must accept the possibility of inaccuracies on the site.


IMPORTANT! This information is used at your own risk.
1) We maintain the CTC site in our spare time and for no financial reward. While we will endeavour to keep it up to date this is not always immediately possible and we are under no obligation to do so at all. Users must take responsibility for their own actions. FISO and CTC accept no responsibility for errors on the site, nor for the actions of those using the site as a guide to price changes.
2) Although we expect the general rules to be the same as previous seasons, there will be a margin of error in the early days as we ascertain this, and also as we need to estimate the threshold figures for the new season (which will certainly be different to past years).


FAQs

PRICE RISES

Q: Hi, I’m kind of new to this Crack the Code site. How does it work?
A: Crack the Code, known as CTC, is a site that predicts which players will either increase or decrease in value based on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL). It has been developed by Diamondplus who tries to work out the formula that the FPL uses in order to determine these increases & decreases.

Q: Interesting, so when do these price increases/decreases happen?
A: We’re not 100% sure but it is sometime between 00.30 and 03.30 every day.

Q: Does that mean a player can only increase/decrease once in day?
A: Exactly, they can’t increase/decrease more than £0.1m in one day. They can however increase/decrease every day in a week, but I’ll cover that shortly.

Q: And how often does CTC get updated?
A: This one we are sure of! It’s updated at 09:00, 13:00, 16:00, 18:00, 19:00, 20:00, 22:00 every day.

Q: Alright, so I’m looking at the CTC page for rises, what does everything mean?
A: Let’s start from the right hand side. You’ll see Target NTI. NTI stands for Net Transfers In. This number is calculated by taking all the teams that buy a player and subtracting the number of teams that sell a player. In order for a player to increase in value, they need to hit the NTI Target.

Q: So how do you know what the NTI target is meant to be?
A: Truthfully we don’t. It’s a bit of a moving target as FPL don’t let us know but as the season continues and we see more players increase in value, we get a better idea of what an NTI target is meant to be. This is due to being able to see what player’s NTIs were when they increased and therefore can speculate with more accuracy. The swing can be approx 3% either direction.

Q: And how do you know how many teams have actually bought/sold a player?
A: That information is actually found on the FPL site – just not everyone knows about it. If you click on the transfers tab on FPL, on the right you’ll see that it is defaulted at Score (Total). Click on that tab and go down and you’ll see transfers in, transfers out, transfers in (Gameweek), transfers out (Gameweek).

Q: Wow, never knew that
A: Glad I could teach you something....

Q: So going back to the CTC, if a player hits their NTI target they automatically increase in value?
A: Without confusing you right now, yes that is correct. There are some situations this doesn’t happen but I’ll cover them later as they are few and far between. In general though, yes they do increase in value.

Q: So looking at CTC, I can see a player’s NTI Target. I presume the NTI is what they are currently on and NTI (Today) shows me what increase/decrease they’ve had today?
A: Spot on

Q: So if a player’s NTI target is 32,500 and they have an NTI of 36,500 when the price increase occurs, do 4000 NTI roll over for their next target?
A: Unfortunately not, no. When a player hits their target and the price increase happens, their NTI total get reset back to zero. This includes all additional NTIs above the target. They just get lost into the ether.

Q: You mentioned above that a player can increase more than once in a week. Does the NTI target just get reset as well?
A: Yes.

Q: Think so, but can you show me some numbers to make it clearer?
A: Of course. So if the NTI target is 32,500, and the player hits this in a GW, remember their NTI total gets reset back to zero. If they are to increase again in the same GW, they have to accumulate enough 32,500 NTIs, and so on until they hit the gameweek rise limit.

Q: So how many times can a player actually increase?
A: In any single gameweek a player can rise 3 times. After this the NTIs continue to accumulate and any further rises happen in the following gameweek (in other words, following the next gameweek deadline).

Q: So if I’m getting this right, if 45,000 NTI total gets rolled on to the next GW and the NTI target is still 32,500 then the first night they’ll have an automatic increase?
A: That is correct

Q: But the additional 12,500 (45,000 minus 32,500) will be lost when that increase happens?
A: That’s perfect. Do you want my job??


PRICE DROPS

Q: No, not really but I do want to understand how player’s prices dropping works?
A: Whereas price increases had to do with NTIs, price decreases have got to do with NTOs (Net Transfers Out). Each player has an NTO Threshold and when they reach this, their price drops.

Q: Is the NTO Threshold the same for each player?
A: The formula is the same but the actual NTO number is different. The way you work out (formula) a player’s NTO Threshold, is to calculate what approximately 10% of their actual ownership number is. Hitting this number causes the price drop.

Q: Ownership number? How do I find out what that is?
A: Firstly, looking back at the FPL site, if you go to transfer page and look at each individual player, you’ll see the (i) icon to the left of their name. If you click on that, you’ll see a small window pop up. In that window you can see the % of “Teams Selected By”.

Q: That gives me a % but how do I know how many teams are in the league?
A: Now go back to “My Team” on the FPL site. On the right hand side you’ll see “Points/Rankings”. Under that you will see “Total Players”. To prevent confusion I’m going to refer to them as Total Teams. Therefore if there are 2 million total teams and you know a player is owned by 20% of teams, then you know that player is owned by.....

Q: 400,000 teams.
A: Correct. And if their NTO Threshold to drop in price is approx. 10% of that .....?

Q: Then they’ll need 40,000 players to sell them for their price to fall.
A: Spot on!

Q: Why do you say it’s approximately 10%?
A: Similar to price increases, we don’t know the exact formula that FPL uses to decide on price decreases but our research shows it’s approximately 10%.

Q: So how does it work if a player has already reduced in price once in a week? Can they fall again?
A: Yes, it works in a similar way to the price rises. The NTO gets reset and they have to reach the NTO target before dropping again.

Q: So are there any times when the NTO Threshold can be different from how you’ve explained it above?
A: Yes – sorry, I know this gets a bit complicated but work with me on this.
1) When a player’s value is higher than their season-beginning value, then in order for them to have a price decrease, instead of an NTO Threshold, they just need to hit the negative NTI Threshold instead, if this is smaller than the 10% of manager’s that own him.

Q: You say what???
A: Take Van Persie, let’s say his last price increase was an NTI Target of 31,000. His value is now above his season-beginning value. He now loses form and people want to sell him. His “Teams Selected By” number is 25%. On a game with 2 million teams he is owned by 500,000 teams. 10% of that would be 50,000 and that should be his NTO Threshold to drop. BUT, because he has risen already in the game, his NTO is now the 31,000 (original NTI target) as this is lower than the 10%.

Q: So that’s it? I’m ready to use CTC?
A: Actually no. There are a couple of other things you should be aware of such as Flagging & Protection of players.

FLAGGING & PROTECTION OF PLAYERS

Q: Flagging & Protection of Players? Explain away….
A: When a player is either injured, doubtful, suspended or ineligible then the (i) next to their name on FPL will be flagged red or yellow.

Q: Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops.

Q: Why is that?
A: The general thinking here is that when a player is injured or suspended, naturally a lot of people will want to sell that player. In order to ensure their price doesn’t fall dramatically, the Threshold is increased.

Q: So if a player’s NTO Threshold was 40,000, it’s now going to be 2.5 times greater than that when they are flagged – so 100,000?
A: Correct

Q: But their NTI target for increase doesn’t change?
A: Again correct

Q: Is it likely a player will increase in value or even people buying him in if they are flagged?
A: It could be. Let’s say a player got flagged red as they were being suspended for 1 game for receiving 5 yellow cards. This might not put people off from keeping this player, if they are in the knowledge that he will be back next game. Plus, if this player is already on a rise, there is no reason that more teams won’t buy him and bench him for one week.

Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there.

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.

Q: So anything else I should know?
A: It’s important to remember that CTC will never be 100% accurate. It takes a lot of dedication from people who, in their spare time, are analysing the information we can gather from price rises and decreases and trying to accurately predict the formulas. Ultimately though, FPL will never reveal their formulas and therefore the CTC team will always be half a step behind. It’s bit like a game of cat and mouse. Sometimes we manage to paw the mouse and sometimes it manages to go left, when we’re still chasing right.

So if you notice something is wrong (or went wrong) try and help us understand why a player increased/decreased when we were not expecting him to or why a player DIDN’T increase/decrease when we were expecting it!

Q: Thanks for all the help
A: No problem at all

Q: So now I’m ready to use CTC?
A: You were always ready to use CTC, you just never knew it!
Last edited by Rob on 20 Aug 2013, 19:06, edited 1 time in total.

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organdonor47
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 »

Yesssss

Rob, as soon as i get some spare time i'll try to look at laying out those changes we discussed. If anyone has any ideas about anything else we could add then PM rob or me :)

Lets get rich.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Ironfist »

Not much to say other than expressing our gratitude for making this great tool available to us all. Thank you. :)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by From4corners »

Ironfist wrote:Not much to say other than expressing our gratitude for making this great tool available to us all. Thank you. :)
I second that. Keep up the great work! 8-)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by spiderm4tt »

From4corners wrote:
Ironfist wrote:Not much to say other than expressing our gratitude for making this great tool available to us all. Thank you. :)
I second that. Keep up the great work! 8-)
I third that! Thank you, very much appreciated :)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by diamondplus »

Aww, I didn't know my work had been replaced. (:

Too be honest, I don't really play fantasy football these days. Last season I left the code running on my home PC without really checking what's happening.

Good luck everybody and all the best!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by admin »

diamondplus wrote:Aww, I didn't know my work had been replaced. (:

Too be honest, I don't really play fantasy football these days. Last season I left the code running on my home PC without really checking what's happening.

Good luck everybody and all the best!
Excellent to see you back on fiso D+. Had messaged and emailed you when CTC stopped updating early March so have been a little worried about you when no responses.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 »

diamondplus wrote:Aww, I didn't know my work had been replaced. (:

Too be honest, I don't really play fantasy football these days. Last season I left the code running on my home PC without really checking what's happening.

Good luck everybody and all the best!
ctc wouldn't exist at all without you so you'll never be truly 'replaced' :)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Mystery »

Ahhhh. Reminds me of my strange time out in the Caribbean last summer running my own calcs in a handily placed different time zone. I might lurk in here for the start of the season while we try and get on top of the numbers.

Great work all

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by wabu »

Are FPL price changes frozen for the first 2 weeks? I have a vague memory of this from previous years. I'd like to know to help form wildcard strategy.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Rob »

wabu wrote:Are FPL price changes frozen for the first 2 weeks? I have a vague memory of this from previous years. I'd like to know to help form wildcard strategy.
No, as soon as the season kicks off I expect transfers to count towards price changes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

wabu wrote:Are FPL price changes frozen for the first 2 weeks? I have a vague memory of this from previous years. I'd like to know to help form wildcard strategy.
That was only because of the great crash of 2011 and the game week 2 free wildcard.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Mystery »

Mystery wrote:Ahhhh. Reminds me of my strange time out in the Caribbean last summer running my own calcs in a handily placed different time zone. I might lurk in here for the start of the season while we try and get on top of the numbers.

Great work all
Right then, my spreadsheet ran properly earlier so I'll try and assist if I can.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Rob »

Mystery wrote:
Mystery wrote:Ahhhh. Reminds me of my strange time out in the Caribbean last summer running my own calcs in a handily placed different time zone. I might lurk in here for the start of the season while we try and get on top of the numbers.

Great work all
Right then, my spreadsheet ran properly earlier so I'll try and assist if I can.
Top man, thanks, all assistance gratefully received :)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by coletrickle88 »

Have we an idea of how this is working this season ?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Rob »

coletrickle88 wrote:Have we an idea of how this is working this season ?
We are assuming that it will work as last season but until the first price-changes happen it is pure guesswork. I have assumed 37k as the rise threshold for now but there's a big margin of error until we have more data.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by cjice »

Rob wrote:
wabu wrote:Are FPL price changes frozen for the first 2 weeks? I have a vague memory of this from previous years. I'd like to know to help form wildcard strategy.
No, as soon as the season kicks off I expect transfers to count towards price changes.
Does that mean prices could potentially change tonight?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Spyglass »

I'm looking at Mignolet and see that his TIR is 3216. Is this number the actual transfers in or do you have to add a zero. In other words is this 3216, or 32160?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Rob »

cjice wrote:
Rob wrote:
wabu wrote:Are FPL price changes frozen for the first 2 weeks? I have a vague memory of this from previous years. I'd like to know to help form wildcard strategy.
No, as soon as the season kicks off I expect transfers to count towards price changes.
Does that mean prices could potentially change tonight?
Given enough transfer activity, I believe so.
Spyglass wrote:I'm looking at Mignolet and see that his TIR is 3216. Is this number the actual transfers in or do you have to add a zero. In other words is this 3216, or 32160?
No need to add a zero. It's the net transfers that count towards a price-change, so http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php is showing 2,122 at the moment.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 »

Just a quick point - going by previous seasons, prices don't usually change until the Sunday night (may even be after every team has played once, not sure). That doesn't mean it won't happen of course.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Richt »

Does anyone know if CTC is accessible on Tapatalk?

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Post by Richt »

Forget that question. I can just click the link in an earlier post on this thread.......:roll:

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Post by Sowenna »

very informative and useful, thanks

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

organdonor47 wrote:Just a quick point - going by previous seasons, prices don't usually change until the Sunday night (may even be after every team has played once, not sure). That doesn't mean it won't happen of course.
The reason for this is nothing more than no-one has ever got >30k NTI within 12 hours of the season starting.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Rob »

reds363 wrote:
organdonor47 wrote:Just a quick point - going by previous seasons, prices don't usually change until the Sunday night (may even be after every team has played once, not sure). That doesn't mean it won't happen of course.
The reason for this is nothing more than no-one has ever got >30k NTI within 12 hours of the season starting.
I think od47 may be referring to a number of occasions last season when the expected Saturday changes did not happen, and got caught in the Sunday changes. It appeared to be quite random to me.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by organdonor47 »

reds363 wrote:
organdonor47 wrote:Just a quick point - going by previous seasons, prices don't usually change until the Sunday night (may even be after every team has played once, not sure). That doesn't mean it won't happen of course.
The reason for this is nothing more than no-one has ever got >30k NTI within 12 hours of the season starting.
I might be wrong (been known) but I *think* michu did last year but didn't rise until Monday morning?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Multiple Scorgasms »

Does make me wonder when laods of people are having to waste a transfer removing bale when they knew he may/probably will leave and he would not make 1st game.

Similarly all the people bringing in Benteke who although I think is a good play has only proven he can score pens (although one he was lucky on) and has no GW3

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Fatbat »

This is a great resource but one question has been bugging me for awhile now. How long does it take for price changes, especially increases, to be reflected in the value of the players on your squad? I remember last year having players like RVP, for example, who rose in price dramatically over the course of the season, but those positive changes aren't reflected at any pace in your player value, while negative changes happen immediately. Seems kind of unfair. Some insight would be appreciated.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

Fatbat wrote:Some insight would be appreciated.
http://fantasy.premierleague.com/rules/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (under 'making transfers' -> 'player prices')

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2013/14 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by duncancosgrove »

Apologies if this has already been discussed, but i think a great addition to CTC could be to allow a user to 'watch' players, and send an email to them at the point the player hits their target rise or drop and is due a price change that night. Could be done as an addition to someone's account on FISO or as a standalone login thing.

Obviously this would require a bit of work and wouldn't be for this season, but just thought i'd mention it anyway.

:mrgreen:

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