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Player values

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andye
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Player values

Post by andye »

Player prices were due to start changing 11th September

They have , however , changed already

For example ...

A Zaki Wigan Athletic 4.30 - 4.50
S Gerrard Liverpool 10.00 - 9.00
C Ronaldo Manchester United 11.00 - 10.60

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Spencer4
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Re: Player values

Post by Spencer4 »

andye wrote:Player prices were due to start changing 11th September

They have , however , changed already

For example ...

A Zaki Wigan Athletic 4.30 - 4.50
S Gerrard Liverpool 10.00 - 9.00
C Ronaldo Manchester United 11.00 - 10.60

I wonder if people are going to realise that the defenders are the answer in this game and their prices should double, whereas your Decos and Drogbas are going to score very little and their prices should be halved.

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Re: Player values

Post by Knulpuk »

I am quite enjoying the game - missed a couple of tricks so not in running - but yes lots of defenders in poorish teams and 2 def midfielders are the way forward + they are cheap so you effectively have whoever you want up front!

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Re: Player values

Post by Hamlet »

I checked after reading this last night, and the player values had all changed; however, now they seem to have reverted, so maybe they just updated it early by accident (somehow).

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Re: Player values

Post by Not So Special One »

andye wrote:Player prices were due to start changing 11th September
They have , however , changed already
Like Hamlet, I still see the same numbers in the OV and NV columns of the Player Values table. Is there another place to find the new prices before 11 September? Or did they come and go as he suspects?

Also, the google plug-in for Guardian Fantasy Football gives information about net transfers in and out of the 10 most-owned players, but it would be great to have that info about all players, as it should give an advance idea which may be going up or down in price, as with the Fantasy Premier League. But neither ownership nor transfer information appears anywhere I've looked for it. Does anyone have a source?

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Re: Player values

Post by The Saint »

Not So Special One wrote:
andye wrote:Player prices were due to start changing 11th September
They have , however , changed already
Like Hamlet, I still see the same numbers in the OV and NV columns of the Player Values table. Is there another place to find the new prices before 11 September? Or did they come and go as he suspects?

Also, the google plug-in for Guardian Fantasy Football gives information about net transfers in and out of the 10 most-owned players, but it would be great to have that info about all players, as it should give an advance idea which may be going up or down in price, as with the Fantasy Premier League. But neither ownership nor transfer information appears anywhere I've looked for it. Does anyone have a source?
No. I emailed them to ask whether they would be providing this data and they said 'to an extent', whatever that means. Nothing has appeared yet though.

I just tried various search engines to see if there cache has the version of the page with the temporarily updated prices but no luck so far.

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The Saint
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Re: Player values

Post by The Saint »

I am struck by how dramatic the Gerrard price fall was. In their email to me they said that weekly price adjustments would be "minor".

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Re: Player values

Post by Not So Special One »

The Saint wrote:I am struck by how dramatic the Gerrard price fall was. In their email to me they said that weekly price adjustments would be "minor".
A drop of 10% is hardly minor, especially if you own the player. :cry: And no doubt the prices will keep moving until they are officially revealed next week.

A lot of us must have sold Gerrard when it was announced he would have surgery, not believing Rafa's claim that he would probably miss only the one match (which now looks like being true). I was one of them, chiefly to pick up Fabregas, and because GFF is so generous with transfers.

What's more surprising is that so many people selected Ronaldo even before the season began, though his operation etc. were hardly a secret - Sky Sports News showed him on crutches several times a day all through the summer. Now they're selling him, knocking his value down by £0.4 already, though he may be back on the pitch next month instead of in December as we were first told. Maybe they know something I don't know...

If this continues, who knows, I may be able to have Fabs, Gerrard, and Ronaldo on my team at once! Though the way GFF is scored, I might do better with Curtis Davies. (Curtis who?)

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Re: Player values

Post by Spencer4 »

None of this player price fluctuation matters a jot. We know by now that a team with 5 defenders from bad/average teams and two defensive midfielders is the way to go, so there's no need to get anywhere near your full budget.

Unless it really does change so that your defenders double in price and your strikers halve in price, but I doubt that many people are bothering to be honest.

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Re: Player values

Post by Not So Special One »

We'll see whether the price changes matter when the prices change, right? I have some upgrades to make, not all of them in the defence, and would love to know whether to do them now or wait until the 11th. Probably I'll wait, in case of injuries in the international matches.

As for the winning formula, you may be right, but presently only two of the top five managers are using it (#1 and #4), while #2 and #3 have benched a defensive midfielder and #5 got there with 4 defenders. And Clichy, who's on four of the top five sides, hardly plays for a bad/average team. Looks like it might pay to go against the conventional wisdom, at least sometimes. But there are many, many weeks to go.

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Re: Player values

Post by Spencer4 »

Not So Special One wrote:We'll see whether the price changes matter when the prices change, right? I have some upgrades to make, not all of them in the defence, and would love to know whether to do them now or wait until the 11th. Probably I'll wait, in case of injuries in the international matches.

As for the winning formula, you may be right, but presently only two of the top five managers are using it (#1 and #4), while #2 and #3 have benched a defensive midfielder and #5 got there with 4 defenders. And Clichy, who's on four of the top five sides, hardly plays for a bad/average team. Looks like it might pay to go against the conventional wisdom, at least sometimes. But there are many, many weeks to go.
I'm in 11th :P and am doing that.

Anyway I did a lot of statistical analysis before the game started and Clichy was a totally stand out player in defence. I didn't have all the Opta stats to work with but I had some, and his rating was 9.18 per match from those categories that I did have.

This means nothing on it's own, but compared to other players, R Taylor, G Johnson, J Lescott, M Laursen, G Bale, N Onuoha, A Cole, P Chimbonda, F Aurelio, S Warnock, R Carvalho, P Scharner, R Ferdinand, P Evra and N Nosworthy were all between 6 and 7.8.

He was a stand out player.

And I'll give you a surprising fact about midfielders, Ronaldo was the top rated :shock:

Good luck with your wheeling and dealing.

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Re: Player values

Post by Hamlet »

Spencer4 wrote:None of this player price fluctuation matters a jot. We know by now that a team with 5 defenders from bad/average teams and two defensive midfielders is the way to go, so there's no need to get anywhere near your full budget.

Unless it really does change so that your defenders double in price and your strikers halve in price, but I doubt that many people are bothering to be honest.
While I agree with your comments on the best formation, I think you might have been too quick to write off budget considerations. While so far it has been possible to pick pretty much anyone, there are several 'new' factors: 1) Mascherano is back, and expensive 2) Ronaldo will be back one day, and will presumably be a must (though admittedly bringing him in will be about timing it right with the price fluctuations) 3) while there is incredible value in the defence, some of the (potentially) best picks are expensive, e.g. Laursen, Lescott, Clichy.

Anyway, my point is that, when all players are available, a midfield of Barry, Mascherano, Ronaldo, and one of Gerrard/Lamp/Fabregas will cost a lot, and something will have to give somewhere in terms of the budget.

Mostly, I do agree with you though; just speculating.

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Re: Player values

Post by anon6 »

Strange. I picked Laursen as the games best player from last season using OPTA stats. Clichy was the best player at Arsenal though, Followed by Fab a close second.

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Re: Player values

Post by Spencer4 »

1086 wrote:Strange. I picked Laursen as the games best player from last season using OPTA stats. Clichy was the best player at Arsenal though, Followed by Fab a close second.

Yes, I did say I didn't have all the stats to hand, and of course not all of them are relevent to the scoring so you could be right. From the stats I did have Laursen was 5th best defender and Fabregas fractionally better than Clichy and the 3rd best midfielder behind Ronaldo and Stevie G.

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Re: Player values

Post by anon6 »

I look a little closer at the numbers (Clichy ranks about 12th on my list). The big points difference was made on one stat. Laursen scored 739 and Clichy just 258.

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Re: Player values

Post by anon6 »

andye wrote:Player prices were due to start changing 11th September

Don't seem to have changed :?:

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Re: Player values

Post by fisoadms »

They have changed now, and some of the changes seem pretty big. I wonder how much they will fluctuate on a day-to-day basis.

Risers:
Pos Name Club Pts OV NC Change
MID Deco Chelsea 44 8 8.8 0.8
STR J Defoe Portsmouth 35 7 7.7 0.7
STR A Zaki Wigan Athletic 44 4.3 5 0.7
MID S Wright-Phillips ** Chelsea 31 5.8 6.5 0.7
STR D Berbatov ** Tottenham Hotspur 1 9 9.6 0.6
STR R Van Persie Arsenal 31 8.2 8.7 0.5
DM N Denilson Arsenal 46 4.8 5.2 0.4
DEF C Davenport West Ham United 66 3.6 4 0.4
DEF G Clichy Arsenal 54 7.7 8.1 0.4

Fallers:
STR R Santa Cruz Blackburn Rovers 15 8 7.7 -0.3
STR N Anelka Chelsea 18 6.6 6.3 -0.3
STR R Keane ** Tottenham Hotspur 11 7.7 7.4 -0.3
MID D Bentley ** Blackburn Rovers 18 7.7 7.4 -0.3
MID T Walcott Arsenal 9 5.4 5.1 -0.3
MID S Gerrard Liverpool 26 10 9.5 -0.5
STR F Torres Liverpool 14 11.5 10.5 -1

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Re: Player values

Post by anon6 »

I thought they change every Thursday morning. Not every day :?

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Re: Player values

Post by andye »

1086 wrote:
andye wrote:Player prices were due to start changing 11th September

Don't seem to have changed :?:
'The changes will take place in the early hours (UK time) of Thursday morning' - according to an email I received

Andy

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Re: Player values

Post by Not So Special One »

The new prices are now in effect, and they don't quite match the prices that andye saw a week ago:
andye wrote:A Zaki Wigan Athletic 4.30 - 4.50
S Gerrard Liverpool 10.00 - 9.00
C Ronaldo Manchester United 11.00 - 10.60
Zaki went all the way up to £5.0, Gerrard fell only to £9.5, and Ronaldo is now at £10.8. No reason to suppose that either the 4 Sept. or 11 Sept. values were doctored, but if they weren't then some player values have been changing in a big way from week to week.

This may be tricky to exploit, as GFF provides no net transfers in/out data to base predictions on. Any who sold Berbatov because he has played only minutes so far this season and earned only 1 point, will be surprised that he has gone up from £9.0 to £9.6 in GFF, though his price has gone down or remained steady in other fantasy games. Those who own Deco saw his value soar from £8.0 to £8.8 overnight; his price rise was predictable but the amount of it was less so.
Last edited by Not So Special One on 11 Sep 2008, 09:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Player values

Post by stanley smith »

The 'big' expensive players will still have to fall a lot more than that to make them attractive in this crazy game.

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Re: Player values

Post by anon6 »

stanley smith wrote:The 'big' expensive players will still have to fall a lot more than that to make them attractive in this crazy game.
Like a lot of markets. this one is behaving irrationally. :?

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Re: Player values

Post by andye »

Not So Special One wrote:The new prices are now in effect, and they don't quite match the prices that andye saw a week ago:
andye wrote:A Zaki Wigan Athletic 4.30 - 4.50
S Gerrard Liverpool 10.00 - 9.00
C Ronaldo Manchester United 11.00 - 10.60
Zaki went all the way up to £5.0, Gerrard fell only to £9.5, and Ronaldo is now at £10.8. No reason to suppose that either the 4 Sept. or 11 Sept. values were doctored, but if they weren't then some player values have been changing in a big way from week to week.

This may be tricky to exploit, as GFF provides no net transfers in/out data to base predictions on. Any who sold Berbatov because he has played only minutes so far this season and earned only 1 point, will be surprised that he has gone up from £9.0 to £9.6 in GFF, though his price has gone down or remained steady in other fantasy games. Those who own Deco saw his value soar from £8.0 to £8.8 overnight; his price rise was predictable but the amount of it was less so.
I think the prices I saw last week were based on net transfers for the whole season up to last Thursday and may have been just the system being tested

Todays price changes reflect net transfers for the last 7 days - obviously not that dramatic due to the international break

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Re: Player values

Post by The Saint »

andye wrote:
Todays price changes reflect net transfers for the last 7 days
Do we know this for sure?

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Re: Player values

Post by andye »

The Saint wrote:
andye wrote:
Todays price changes reflect net transfers for the last 7 days
Do we know this for sure?
From the site ...

12) Why have players' values changed?

On 11th September 2008, players' values will begin to fluctuate.
Value fluctuations are dependent on how many times an individual player has been transferred in and out of total teams in the competition on a weekly basis.

Basic example: If a player is transferred in many times during one week, he is likely to increase in value the following week.

Fluctuations will take place every Thursday, starting from 11th September.

And from an email I received ...

'the value changes should not be overly dramatic. They are based on the previous week's net transfers only'

Andy

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Re: Player values

Post by The Saint »

Thanks :)

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Re: Player values

Post by andye »

How many net transfers do you reckon it takes to push a players price up or down a million ?
10,000 maybe ?

That would mean 10,000 people sold Gerrard before last Thursday and 5,000 in the last week

Any thoughts ?

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Re: Player values

Post by Spencer4 »

andye wrote:How many net transfers do you reckon it takes to push a players price up or down a million ?
10,000 maybe ?

That would mean 10,000 people sold Gerrard before last Thursday and 5,000 in the last week

Any thoughts ?
That's too many I think. I'd have thought he'd have left maybe 2,000 teams at most.

Maybe far less. Who's going to waste their subs this early, especially with a bench of replacements.

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The Saint
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Re: Player values

Post by The Saint »

Strange so many shipped him out in the last 7 days rather than before the last round of matches when you could have used one of your 5 August transfers. This is one of the reasons why I was wondering whether the net transfers for this first round of price changes actually reflected changes since the beginning of the season rather than the last 7 days.

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Re: Player values

Post by Not So Special One »

Today's price changes have to reflect net transfers for the whole season, as they are the first to be published officially.

The price changes you saw last week were for the whole season up to then, but since they were made public by accident and quickly withdrawn, transfers in and out continued to be made using the values from before the season began.

That said, I'm sure the brief preview tempted some who saw it to buy and sell players whose values had already moved up or down in a big way off the record, hoping to make a coup when the official changes finally appeared. I did, and my team went up in value by £4.0 overnight; if I hadn't stubbornly held on to Adebayor, who was sure to drop, and traded him for Van Persie or Defoe, the paper profit would have been close to £5.0.

All this may not have much effect on actual points, however, and of course it's points that will win GFF. Even Titus Bramble has more points just now than all strikers except Zaki and all but 4 offensive midfielders. Did his price go up today? See for yourselves.

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