Just a couple more sets of games and we'll be into TW4 action.

It is shaping up as absolutely pivotal for the leaders and chasing pack. TW3 was all about consolidating it seemed at the top, with many teams starting to look very similar.

Fwds: RVP, Rooney, Aguero
Mids: Silva, Mata, Dempsey or Bale
Defence: Enrique [the enabler badly needed], Jones, Shawcross, Kompany, Walker
Keepers: A bit more varied to balance the budget, Hart, Friedel, Vorm.

TW4 brings the big conundrum of Europe back into the equation. Potentially 4 extra games for some players - but who? All 5 English clubs left in have tricky ties, so no bankers to progress, and with United & City, that slight question mark over what sort of side will be put out.

Some other players have entered or re-entered the game looking more appealing:

Suarez - fresh and fired up, or just plain angry?
Gerrard - getting back to his best or destined for a fall?
Cahill - sorts out Chelsea defence or compounds the problems?
Ba - one to consider or will he fade after ACN?
Torres - I know, but seriously, he is showing glimmers of a return?

How about Van der Vaart & Nani, expensive discards at TW4 or ones to 'Hold' or even 'Bring In' hoping for a stellar 4 or 5 game burst, which both are capable of.

On top of all that we have the Fulham, Swansea, Newcastle filler types that have done great jobs in various teams. Stick or Twist Who will keep going and who will fade badly?

For a while at the top, it was looking like the Rooney/RVP/Aguero combo with fairly standard supporting cast and a 50 point+ gap back to those outside the Top 10 or so, would be enough to nurse along to the finish. However the odd injury / suspension has just opened things up.

I think if the table looks as it does now come TW5 then you'd say one of the Top 10 will win it. However just sense that TW4 will make or break many a team, so the teams up there at TW5 could look a bit different.

Keeping to the best standard players used above, does leave you with a 2m-4m overspend, so everyone has to make a sacrifice somewhere. If the enabler and expensive player being enabled both fail, it does leave the door open to make up 50 or 60 points from TW4 to TW5. That is what most teams in Top 100 need to do to get themselves into contention.

Good Luck all

For me, I think TW4 is still about consolidation with an 'all-in' gamble, possibly even a block defence if you're there or thereabouts at TW5.

I think the martin o'neill factor will give sunderland players more value for money so could be worth considering for TW4. I fancy the defence to be tight and think sessegnon could rack up the points. I also think Torres is due for a big points haul soon. But it is a gamble...

Don't fancy the spurs defence to stay as miserly as they have been, but expect mancini to adopt a tighter approach as the pressure tightens. The only trouble is, only Hart and Kompany are nailed on starters (when not banned!)

If you are in amongst it I can see that everyone will just consolidate, shuffle the odd defender, midfielder about etc.

But even someone in the Top 50, could be 50+ points adrift. Ok, they could claw back 20 or 30 I suppose, if they consolidated and stuck with the same players as the leaders, but they risk having an identical side, or 10 the same as one or two teams in the Top 5. Hence they would do well to make up 30 points from one player.

TW5 maybe too late. English teams could be out of Europe, City or United could have a little surge and title wrapped up with 2 games to spare = resting players.

I do think it's a tricky one though, because if a load of the Top 50 do 'go for it' and it backfires, then a team in 70th odd could nudge along into 20th or something by TW5, having been quite conservative, and then like you say Don - go all in.

Still 4 games to go in this window generally and lots of changes will occur in that top 100.

I dont envisage 1-100 to be more than 70 pts and currently we have 140 teams within 100 pts of Bruce (and my second best team within 101-thought i'd plug that)

Also over 200 teams within 111 pts of Bruce

Also at least 1/3rd of the current top 100 were not in the current top 100 at the beginning of this window.

I for one, a'int even thinking that far ahead as the next window when so much can change regarding injuries, suspensions, teams in cups, europe. I dont want my judgement clouded.

I still think its Ed's Syndicates to loose when you consider they have 9 pct of the current top 200 teams in contention, when they can cover all eventualities (17 teams and counting- might of missed the odd 1)

90 points isn't a lot when we're only 3/5ths of the way through. Remember, all it takes is a dempsey-esque 30 point midfield hat-trick to shuffle things around fairly drastically. It could be just one player that other people have that makes all the difference...

Im exactly like you Edmonson. Im chasing the leader in a mini league at work, but unsure on how to play it (similar to how you are in the premium league). With the European fixtures now coming into play, following the Winter break, it might be worth playing it safe until the next window, and then taking the gamble. At least then, you will know which teams will still be competing in Europe and how serious teams like Man City/Utd will take the Europa League.

Edmo, i would like your opinion on Essien and Defoe, would you consider these two players gambles in closing down the leaders in a mini league?

Essien, coming back from injury, has been a particular favourite with the Sun over past seasons, collecting numerous 7+'s and star man awards. The only downfall is that he's only just come back from injury and short on match fitness.

Defoe - A player that has the potential to score well, but with hard fixtures over the next period Man Utd, Arsenal, Man City etc. I have my doubts about his playing time, especially, with Adebayor and Van der Vaart in the thick of the action.

If I look at the top 5 they have a small cushion.

They all have that same front 3, plus 4/5 have Mata, Silva.

Go down to 50th, and that is 70 points+ back from the leader. There are teams down there with same front 3 and Silva, Mata in midfield.

My point is what do those teams do? Keep that same 5 and shuffle their defence about a bit, but generally keep to the favoured Enrique, Walker types?

I wouldn't expect the top 5 to move away from these players, so how will someone in 50th catch up as whatever combination they choose, bring Cahill in etc. at the back, will probably be vy similar, if not the same as Top 5 team.

They will need at least something a little different to catch up. I'm not saying anything drastic, but if they keep those front 6 players, maybe a slight gamble as 3rd midfielder? Or a semi block of 3 at the back?

I do agree though Dot that still much could change before the window in terms of outlook, I'm not sure the gap will close to 70 pts across the top 100, I also think it's important to look at the gap from 1st to say 20th.

Sjh - I'm not sure Essien will be same player he once was after yet another serious knee injury. Not one I'm looking at. Hopefully he gets a couple of run outs before TW4, to assess where AVB will play him and how regularly.

Defoe - I don't think Harry fancies playing him with VDV in behind. He like Adebayor to hold it up, and link the play, when the likes of Bale, Lennon, VDV are moving forward. He is essentially a sub. Not sure I would be looking there to catch up the points.

Good post edmo!

I tried to consolidate at TW3 and have drifted in the market......I will be going all in @ TW's 4 and 5......sit back............ and enjoy the ride!

Like dot says though.....fair few games to go in this window yet and as we've seen from the first half of this window......literally anything can happen to your team in this time.

Same here, fell of to about 140pts behind the leader now so need something drastic at the next window to close the gap, i'm thinking of dropping Aguero and possibly Silva aswell as keepin my arsenal semi block defence, if thats not drastic enough then I dont know what is

if liverpool dispose of man utd next week i can see a lot of gerrard and suarez coming in..

man utd are up and down like a prossie on a space hopper so yeah a suarez less liverpool can beat them at home

man city arnt smashing teams like they were earlier in the season either so yeah the gamblers might take a punt on removing aguero (hes very unlikely to play in europa and there out of fa cup)

??? based on what?

why would they risk aguero in a mickey mouse comp miles..its no diff to league cup this for so called big clubs..winning the title is citys priority

stoke will take it seriously but those chasing champions league slots will treat it like spurs did

Have to disagree, I think he will play in Europa. Although I think ALL english teams have difficult ties in Europe and can see a couple going out in the next round.

I dont know the Manchester boys might scrape through with us

if mancini starts aguero on a thursday night while chasing the league then im the pope

City had 12 games in the Europa last season;

Hart 9
Silva 8
Kompany 7
Yaya 7
Barry 7
Richards 7
Tevez 6

Granted, City werent in the hunt for the league title last season, but they were going for Top 4 which was a big target for them.

With them being out of the FA Cup… depending on what happens Wednesday night, they might only have two trophies on the table; the Europa could offer a very realistic chance of silverware. What better than to get the club some european silverware? Call it a mickey mouse trophy if you must, but when push comes to shove, players and fans alike like to win stuff.

I know when Liverpool dropped into it, and we played Athletico in the semi, we very much wanted to get to the final.
Every team that gets to the Carling Cup final wants to win it (despite its joke status). Despite its regard… you wouldnt know it from how you see it celebrated by the victors.

nev we remember the uefa cup and cup winners cup as decent competitions until the champions league train wrecked it all through pure greed

loved that liverpool 5-4 or whatever it was final a few years ago

you had to win games back then as well..not lose 2 or 3 games and still go through in the endless league stage

Yes, 5-4 v Alaves (in Dortmund), 2001

Wonder how many of the top syndicates will use dilution this TW
Very popular this time last year or so Im told

Dilution is not to be confused with saturation.

Anyone know when players will be back and playing again for their clubs after ANC? I presume if they get to the final they could miss 2 or 3 games from next window??

Would expect the Toure boys to get to the final (12th Feb) & Citeh play in Europe that week so I would think mid to end of February when they are playing again.

Yes, if they get to the final, you can't imagine they'll fly home till the mon/tue (13/14) at the earliest.

Will they give them extended time off?

The weekend of 18/19 is FA Cup (city have no game).
There's a Europa game the following midweek (23rd?).
That weekend (26th) is Carling Cup final should City reach it.

Note: if City reach the final, Blackburn won't have a game 25/26 Feb. if Liverpool reach the final Everton won't have a game.

On the ACN; I think there's a few of the big teams not made it this time. So Ivory Coast and Senegal (Ba and Cisse if he gets added) must be favourites to go far. Haven't looked at odds though.

Ivory Coast 6/4
Ghana 4-1
Senegal 5-1

best hope Demba Demba does better than the original

Senegal knocked out; Ba and Cisse heading back to Newcastle.

Why they have another game yet in the group stages on Sunday and i doubt Senegal have packed their bags and gone home..

Ok, not literally heading home now, but will be back before Feb.