Lots of people seem to be tinkering like mad while others are holding fire and 'embracing the tortoise'.

I do wonder if people are over-embracing so its time to throw in the old cliche:

"Transfers are like gold dust but points are gold dust".

Also remember that the tortoise beat the hare by employing an even pace and not by going excessively slowly and then sprinting to the line. I guess what I'm trying to say is that its all down to getting the balance right.

So..... for the first time this season, I've decided its time to dust down and re-visit SamD's excellent formula for calculating roughly where you should aim to be in terms of transfer usage.

1) In September, replace non-players/non-performers as these become apparent after first fortnight, eg, Le Tallec, Izzet in 2005; estimate two transfers.

2) Move out those whose injuries will force an absence of three weeks or more, eg, Henry, G Neville in 2005/6; say one per month; over season, that’s nine transfers.

3) In January, remove players from clubs knocked out of FA Cup in third or fourth round; else bring in some whose sides are still competing after fourth round; estimate two transfers.

4) In April/May, recruit those with an interest in semi and final of FA Cup; say four transfers.

5) That leaves 13 of the 30 transfers for tinkers/improvements over the duration of the competition. Including the FA Cup, a season straddles around 420 fixtures so thats one transfer every 32 fixtures (approx, 420/13).

So where are we?

1) Allowed 2 here (if you feel you are finished doing this),

2) One month = 1

3 and 4) 0

5) 48/420 * 13 = 1.5

So a grand total of 4.5 then as a reasonable number for the moment IF you have finished your early season tinkering.

Obviously its best to be on as low a number as possible but if your initial team was crap (your fault ) or you have been unlucky with injuries and real life selections (blame somebody else ) then you can go higher but remember to embrace harder from now on.

Well, I've done 3, and there's no getting away from th efact that the Convey - Baptista one has been a disaster so far.

That said, I'm happy with A Cole in for Carra and Petrov in for Jags.

I can't see myself doing any more transfers for a while yet apart from for injuries.

It sounds like you can't make your mind up murf! Who are you trying to convince here - us or yourself?

I've not made any yet though a couple of players are testing my patience (as always I guess)

i've made loads (avg 8 across most teams). may end up changing the egg cup team once more to drop rossi next weekend, other than that i'm fairly happy they'll stay as they are (injuries pemitting)

I'm confident in my own actions, just thought I'd highlight the topic for the good of all FISOers and make the world a better place

Was genuinely suprised when I dug it out that the formula decrees we are already 'allowed' as many as 4.5 transfers. Makes me feel better about the number of transfers I have planned for the next fortnight.

Also surprised about the 4.5 figure, but I guess we're a month in and crap initial selections have to be taken into account. I'm on 2 for one team and 1 for another, all through injuries so far, but am still waiting for my big hitters to justify their place.

Embrace, embrace.....

I do think the "embrace the tortoise" bandwagon is helped by its snappy soundbite.

Its not so easy to smugly write "don't use too many transfers early on, although obviously ditch any dead wood as soon as it becomes apparent, but don't forget you should stick with players unless they are definitely dead wood, also don't go changing your tactical approach 3 games in, and another thing....."

Over-complicated.

My philosophy is make as many transfers as you are forced to plus any others that strengthen your team. Don't tinker and keep as many transfers as you can for use after Christmas.

If that means 10 by October so be it - but in my book it makes you either very unlucky or crap at initial selction.

My teams are all between 0 and 4 transfers. Average 1.7. They are doing poorly but all that will change when Henry, Gerrard, Lampard start properly firing.

Maybe but I view SamD's formula as about the only sane way of getting a rough objective guide to where you should be. Its particularly of use to the inexperienced (who I largely dragged it up for) but as someone with moderate experience I personally still find it a useful comparison tool.

I've got 2 teams with a full compliment of transfers. One team still has Heinze as I thought he would be back by now. I feel a tinker or two coming on, cheers murf

I`ve used between 0-4,but with a couple of teams i`ve used between 6-8 going for MOTM with them though,quite happy where i am at the mo

Have 3 in tele, best team has used 1, other 2, 4 each.
At start decided to use 5 in each to try and get of to a better start than have in past when have treated transfers with to much respect, has not quite worked out as I thought (does it ever) as its at least with one team best start have had (think about 4000ish for me very good) so now not sure what to do

Managed only to use 2 transfers in my 6 teams and these were to take Heinze out

This is my least amount used at the start of the season and I've had my best start. I'm putting it down to the 3 P's: preparation, preparation and yes you've got it preparation.

Spent a lot of time constructing my teams and making sure the structure is sound. I made a point of having the flexibility to have a choice of 'one transfer' replacements in all but one of my team's (this team is well risky but so far is my highest in 214) so hopefully my transfer count will remain low and enable me to take full advantage of employing the extra game tactic.

Plus all the tips on here help!

Like Pottster, I've also used few transfers, and scored reasonably well. Although I put it down to the 6P's Method: Perfect Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

Mr Tweedy in for the injured Riise & Gallas in for Terry.
Planned on Cole and Gallas from pre-season but had to hold off until transfer deadline day for the (finally expected transfer to go thru).
Kept faith with MG Pederson - YEAH!!
Despite only 96 pts prior to weekend, i'm cool with my team. Shame Gerrards not yet knocking them in! Again, will keep him in, while others bottle it.

Used 2 in 3 of my 4 teams, and 3 in the other. As stated above, that was (unfortunately) around Riise and Heinze. I wanted to focus transfers on MF and ATT but couldn't afford 2 non playing defenders

Quite happy with my teams (solid but unspectacular) performance so far. Unless injuries kick in again I'll leave alone for now. Thought about taking TH out of a couple, but will avoid the big tinker until Arsenal play the game in hand.

got another one - If you fail to plan you may as well plan to fail!

Thats something my welsh PE teacher used to say, he wasnt yours too was he??

Is Welsh PE another name for Rugby?

And there was me feeling bad about making two transfers already, even if they were pretty necessary (Heinze and Todd out - Melberg and Woodgate in). The basis of the numbers you mention is interesting - simply because it helps me to visualise just how many transfers I will most likely have to make in the course of a season and therefore work out where or when I can play about a bit, but it doesn't change my view on embracing the tortoises in my team right now.

I think when deciding just how tightly to hug your amphibian other things have to be considered, especially how good said amphibian looks and the conditions it finds itself in. Nobody wants to cuddle a ragged looking tortoise in an unpleasant setting, but my tortoises come in the shape of a fast, dangerous French breed known for its devastating attacks and a bold, tough breed from the darkest depths of Liverpool, and they both have some appealing looking prey on the food chain in the next few weeks so for now I'm still holding on tight to them.

I'm not sure that a tortoise is an amphibian. Aren't you confusing it with a terrapin? Embracing the terrapin is a different game altogether.

I hear that they Embrace The Terrapin in Fantasy Water Polo.

I was thinking more of Fantasy Terrapin Bowling

Done 3 in both teams

Worst one was MGP out for Angel

Best was Ridgwell in for Riise

Both prior to Villa v WHU

Neither was deemed long term but due to the fact Villa had a fairly easy run I wanted to catch after seeing O'Neil's start.

Otherwise better known as the 7P's

Prior Planning & Preparation Prevents P1ss Poor Performance

I think most players would prefer not to get more than say 120-150 points behind the leaders by end of October. I think if you use up 5 transfers by then and still have 25 left then surely that is ok? Having 25 transfers left from 1st November is surely enough transfers left to take advantage of January xtra fixtures for some teams and the odd injury on the way...

Gets you a high score too in bullsh1t bingo.

Is it worth stating that the draft 'formula' [reproduced in the initial post above] was jotted down a year ago in response to an enquiry on the 'Use of Transfers'?

It was meant to be a guide, not a rule or commandment, and was based on the experiences (OK, mistakes) in running one to six sides in the TFF competition over a decade.

Had considered creating and sharing an enhanced version based on statistical analysis of team results last season, eg, factoring in the increasing number of FA Cup ties. But frankly, with the quantity and quality of recent forum topics seeming to run in opposite directions, is it futile to commit time and effort that may be better expended elsewhere?


PS: not (yet) a GOM

I would be interested to see this - my fascination for statistical analysis takes the edge off my innate ability to select only injured/bench warming players; I recently swapped out MGP as he was under-performing . . .


Maybe a dedicated section to the math-wise and spreadsheet guru's would be in order?
I could start some questions off - like historically what is the average number of CS's for a team - i.e. when is Pompey likely to concede.
Or, what is the most number of consecutive Prem matches that one player has scored in - too late for Zamora now but . . .
etc. etc.

PS: What is a GOM?

I've used 5/6 in most teams to sort out the trash!