CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 08:54

If he is fit enough to play against Celtic :lol:

Faceache · **Joined:** Tue Sep 30 2008 **Posts:** 39

diamondplus wrote:

Now that we're off and running, I'll turn on CTC when I get home tonight. I'll set the threshold to 25,000 and we'll go from there.

We'll also need to keep an eye on Bassong and his "new player protection"

EDIT:

I'm missing data from last Thursday backwards (I was still faffing with my PC as that point!). If players who were added last week are indeed protected then I'm falling short.

Does anybody have a list of players who were added last week and the dates when they were added?

I've got csv files for every hour going back a few week if you need. PM me

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 09:30

Come on Koumas, only another 20k to go

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

PlayerId, DateAdded
478 2009-08-10 15:00:09.133
475 2009-08-10 15:00:09.867
477 2009-08-10 15:00:10.523
476 2009-08-10 15:00:11.070
479 2009-08-13 22:02:03.113
480 2009-08-13 22:02:03.863
481 2009-08-13 22:02:04.443
482 2009-08-13 22:02:05.193
492 2009-08-17 07:51:30.250
489 2009-08-17 07:51:30.890
495 2009-08-17 07:51:31.343
502 2009-08-17 07:51:31.983
486 2009-08-17 07:51:32.733
485 2009-08-17 07:51:33.407
488 2009-08-17 07:51:34.000
507 2009-08-17 07:51:34.797
503 2009-08-17 07:51:35.513
506 2009-08-17 07:51:36.140
484 2009-08-17 07:51:36.670
496 2009-08-17 07:51:37.233
497 2009-08-17 07:51:37.810
493 2009-08-17 07:51:38.280
504 2009-08-17 07:51:39.000
487 2009-08-17 07:51:39.953
494 2009-08-17 07:51:41.610
483 2009-08-17 07:51:43.437
498 2009-08-17 07:51:44.577
500 2009-08-17 07:51:45.500
505 2009-08-17 07:51:46.060
499 2009-08-17 07:51:47.140
501 2009-08-17 07:51:47.687
490 2009-08-17 07:51:48.093
491 2009-08-17 07:51:48.593

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Pieman666 wrote:

FWIW, I suspect Kalinic will be on an amnesty, similar to Bassong.

Thanks for the effort with these figures btw - very helpful.

I think Kalinic is fine at the moment:

Added on the 5th August and protected for 7 days
Protection removed on the 12th August
Ownership calculated on the 15th August as the season begun

mistong · **Joined:** Thu Jan 17 2008 **Posts:** 50

So on current data what will Koumas have to reach to get another price rise this game week?

And if he goes over that limit today will it still count or will it be reset because of the end of the GW.

I think it is likley that he will be hit hard today as more people start to see there is a game mid week and that their players will not play.

Cheers

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

If Koumas is to rise tonight he'll have to get another 20,000 transfers (give or take) as his target threshold will be reset after the deadline tonight along with everyone else.

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 11:05

Won't he go up again tonight, as his target threshold will be reset to 25,000!

OK, that's what you said - I misread.

I suggest taking the 0.1m and moving on, I don't think he's worthy of a long term investment

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 11:33

Here's a thought....

Do we know how many people use CTC on a regular basis!?

Do we have enough purchasing power between us to affect the market in our favour?

Or would that not be considered good form?!

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:23

48111 - 227

gooberman · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:27

Bassong has not had a price rise but has had more transfers in than Shawcross and Evra who have both gone up 0.1m! makes no sense

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:28

That's about enough to force a 0.2m price increase per gameweek used strategically.

Don't quite know where i'm going with this but that's got to be enough to affect the market.

Edit: Thought you were giving me some numbers but now realise you were tracking a player on the transfer market, doh!

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:29

As he is new to the FPL, then surely he has an amnesty?

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:33

blahblah wrote:

48111 - 227

58780-229

Could happen

Nedved · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 12:48

blahblah wrote:

48111 - 227

58780-229

Could happen

Surely?

This isn't my strongest suit but if 25k is the threshold for a price rise and he's now pushing 60k then he must rise again tonight, leaving people with 100k profit?

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 13:01

I think he needs twice the threshold to rise again. If threshold is 25k, he needs to get to 75k for the second rise i.e another two time 25k = 50k.

diamondplus · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 13:08

Murder1 wrote:

PlayerId, DateAdded
478 2009-08-10 15:00:09.133
475 2009-08-10 15:00:09.867
477 2009-08-10 15:00:10.523
476 2009-08-10 15:00:11.070
479 2009-08-13 22:02:03.113
480 2009-08-13 22:02:03.863
481 2009-08-13 22:02:04.443
482 2009-08-13 22:02:05.193
492 2009-08-17 07:51:30.250
489 2009-08-17 07:51:30.890
495 2009-08-17 07:51:31.343
502 2009-08-17 07:51:31.983
486 2009-08-17 07:51:32.733
485 2009-08-17 07:51:33.407
488 2009-08-17 07:51:34.000
507 2009-08-17 07:51:34.797
503 2009-08-17 07:51:35.513
506 2009-08-17 07:51:36.140
484 2009-08-17 07:51:36.670
496 2009-08-17 07:51:37.233
497 2009-08-17 07:51:37.810
493 2009-08-17 07:51:38.280
504 2009-08-17 07:51:39.000
487 2009-08-17 07:51:39.953
494 2009-08-17 07:51:41.610
483 2009-08-17 07:51:43.437
498 2009-08-17 07:51:44.577
500 2009-08-17 07:51:45.500
505 2009-08-17 07:51:46.060
499 2009-08-17 07:51:47.140
501 2009-08-17 07:51:47.687
490 2009-08-17 07:51:48.093
491 2009-08-17 07:51:48.593

Thanks, that's exactly what I need. Off the top of my head I think I can get away with using this information rather than using the full data extract.

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Koumas is currently less than 20% towards another rise, however when his threshold is dropped to 25k along with everyone else tonight he'll be 40%+ towards one.

He lost a load of residual transfers when his price changed last night.

Player, Price, Target, GWTransfers, AdjustedTransfers, PercentageToRise
Koumas 5.10 50000.00 61096 9386 18.77

snout · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 13:59

blahblah wrote:

I think he needs twice the threshold to rise again. If threshold is 25k, he needs to get to 75k for the second rise i.e another two time 25k = 50k.

Since we cross a gameweek barrier tonight, his threshold is reset to 25k and he keeps any NTI made since his price rise last night, yes?

He rose on 51290 NTI and is currently on 61096 NTI now (13.57) so needs another 15K and a bit before the price change kicks in at 2am-ish tonight. Based on a linear calculation, he will fall short by 5K; he has risen 10K in the last 12 hours and therefore could/should rise another 10K before 2am. Dodgy assumption but the best I can give you.

If he scores or assists tonight, I reckon there's a good chance he'll do it.

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 14:08

If it 25k, rather than say 22.5k. Could be close as the pre match transfers kick in.

Nedved · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 14:51

snout wrote:

blahblah wrote:

I think he needs twice the threshold to rise again. If threshold is 25k, he needs to get to 75k for the second rise i.e another two time 25k = 50k.

Since we cross a gameweek barrier tonight, his threshold is reset to 25k and he keeps any NTI made since his price rise last night, yes?

He rose on 51290 NTI and is currently on 61096 NTI now (13.57) so needs another 15K and a bit before the price change kicks in at 2am-ish tonight. Based on a linear calculation, he will fall short by 5K; he has risen 10K in the last 12 hours and therefore could/should rise another 10K before 2am. Dodgy assumption but the best I can give you.

If he scores or assists tonight, I reckon there's a good chance he'll do it.

Koumas will make it. I just checked transfers in for him and the phone rang. After a brief conversation with a client I refreshed the page and the difference was +600 :shock:

People are piling on him and I think he'll deliver tonight both on the field and in the transfer market 8-)

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Sorry if this takes up too much room, it'll be easier when CTC is back working tonight hopefully as I feel as though I'm spamming the thread at the moment, however...

Risers

ID PlayerName Form Price PriceRiseThreshold GWNetTransfers GWAdjustedTransfers PercentageToRise
374 Modric 5.00 7.50 25000.00 26971 26971 107.88
16 Fabregas 22.00 10.50 25000.00 25211 25211 100.84
395 Noble 14.00 6.00 25000.00 18511 18511 74.04
293 Rooney 9.00 11.00 25000.00 17097 17097 68.39
379 Defoe 2.00 8.50 25000.00 15983 15983 63.93
380 Bent 6.00 7.00 25000.00 15339 15339 61.36
195 Zamora 9.00 5.50 25000.00 15036 15036 60.14
276 O'Shea 6.00 5.50 25000.00 14602 14602 58.41
233 Gerrard 7.00 12.50 25000.00 13455 13455 53.82
388 Upson 12.00 5.50 25000.00 13180 13180 52.72

Fallers (Quite a few)

ID PlayerName PriceFallThreshold GWNetTransfers GWAdjustedTransfers FallTarget PercentageToFall YellowFlagged RedFlagged
242 Zabaleta 10.00 -1259 -1259 1000.00 -125.90 False False
42 Agbonlahor 10.00 -23402 -23402 19010.00 -123.10 False False
398 Savio 10.00 -194 -194 160.00 -121.25 False False
412 Watson 10.00 -188 -188 160.00 -117.50 False False
136 Alex 10.00 -3466 -3466 3020.00 -114.77 False False
451 Tevez 10.00 -22176 -22176 19350.00 -114.60 False False
20 Wilshere 10.00 -4950 -4950 4370.00 -113.27 False False
40 Young A 10.00 -26682 -26682 24230.00 -110.12 False False
466 Delph 10.00 -1833 -1833 1680.00 -109.11 False False
468 Kalinic 10.00 -354 -354 330.00 -107.27 False False
110 Davies 10.00 -8953 -8953 8410.00 -106.46 False False
98 Steinsson 10.00 -4644 -4644 4370.00 -106.27 False False
157 Sturridge 10.00 -711 -711 670.00 -106.12 False False
439 Jones 10.00 -167 -167 160.00 -104.38 False False
101 Gardner 10.00 -2596 -2596 2520.00 -103.02 False False
251 De Jong 10.00 -1869 -1869 1850.00 -101.03 False False
279 Tosic 10.00 -332 -332 330.00 -100.61 False False
41 Sidwell 10.00 -1519 -1519 1510.00 -100.60 False False
163 Lescott 10.00 -24350 -24350 24900.00 -97.79 False False
246 Onuoha 10.00 -803 -803 840.00 -95.60 False False
160 Baines 10.00 -10771 -10771 11270.00 -95.57 False False
8 Silvestre 10.00 -2214 -2214 2350.00 -94.21 False False
391 Stanislas 10.00 -149 -149 160.00 -93.13 False False
274 Ferdinand 25.00 -37556 -37556 40375.00 -93.02 False True
9 Gibbs 10.00 -1559 -1559 1680.00 -92.80 False False

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 15:29

Thanks,

It's just what we need until CTC is up and running.

jacksosi · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 15:31

I cannot see SEB on your list for falls, what is the prognosis?

Not sure whether I need to bin him after 7:30 tonight to avoid the pts hit and the price drop :?:

Cheers

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 15:38

12k to go, based on 25k threshold.

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 15:40

I think this is a goer 8-)

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 15:41

Could well be.

I am assuming that the 25k threshold is a guesstimate.

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

jacksosi wrote:

I cannot see SEB on your list for falls, what is the prognosis?

Not sure whether I need to bin him after 7:30 tonight to avoid the pts hit and the price drop :?:

Cheers

He's red flagged so he's about 50% of the way to a drop.

I'm moving him out after the deadline tonight just in case he drops overnight.

jacksosi · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 16:14

Murder1 wrote:

jacksosi wrote:

I cannot see SEB on your list for falls, what is the prognosis?

Not sure whether I need to bin him after 7:30 tonight to avoid the pts hit and the price drop :?:

Cheers

He's red flagged so he's about 50% of the way to a drop.

I'm moving him out after the deadline tonight just in case he drops overnight.

Thanks.

I am now thinking SEB to Jerome (may drop vs may rise), 4 point hit, then Kuyt to Fab after 7:30 with the extra £1m, and then Fab rises too, probably more than once before POR :mrgreen:

...possibly I am starting to get addicted to this trading :oops:

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 17:03

CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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