CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Maureenho · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 21:33

Question:

Koumas is surely set to rise tonight, and would need 40k (assumed 20k threshhold) transfers to rise again in the same gameweek. Since a new gameweek starts tomorrow, am I correct in assuming that once the deadline is passed he will only need 20k to rise again tomorrow?

Assuming the above is correct, I reckon with this volume of transfers he could pull in another 20K NTIs before the deadline tomorrow, and rise that night regardless of how he performs against Wolves.

blahblah · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 21:38

45k now, which means 20-25k wasted re price rises, so he needs another 40-50k, or 20-25k?

reds363 · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 21:40

Maureenho is correct, except that 20k figure is not exactly known yet (I'm guessing it will be around 25k)

Back to the other discussion, the 0.1%-accurate ownership was available last season on each individual player tab, but I think D+ was only able to pull the rounded (1%) figures from the general Fantasy Stats display (it must take a heck of a lot more computer power to pull all 500 or so 0.1% figures separately) :?:

snout · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 21:45

reds363 wrote:

Back to the other discussion, the 0.1%-accurate ownership was available last season on each individual player tab, but I think D+ was only able to pull the rounded (1%) figures from the general Fantasy Stats display (it must take a heck of a lot more computer power to pull all 500 or so 0.1% figures separately) :?:

Sure 500+ web requests will take 500 times longer than 1 but I don't think that this is the time consuming part of the process, unless D+ can correct me?

In theory, it should be possible to target, say, those players with 5% or under on the ownership chart and only pull down their full details; this would cut down the additional web requests to, perhaps 100 out of 500 players? You would need some extra code to set up the list of web queries and feed the results back into the main data but it sounds doable to me.

RomynPG · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 21:50

reds363 wrote:

Back to the other discussion, the 0.1%-accurate ownership was available last season on each individual player tab, but I think D+ was only able to pull the rounded (1%) figures from the general Fantasy Stats display (it must take a heck of a lot more computer power to pull all 500 or so 0.1% figures separately) :?:

Yes - it's the difference between a 1 page grab and ~600.

I think as well as the processing, which wouldn't be too bad, it more to do with being careful not to keep banging away at the site. I do 600ish (known squads) once a GW but to do ~600 multiple times a day ....

Saying that that will be nothing compared to how many requests the site handles each day so it would probably not matter too much.

(The guy who added the 3-year performance analysis on the 08/09 stats thread did that against 400K pages :shock:

)

Jonathan · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 22:35

blahblah wrote:

I (think I) agree about Koumas, he needs at least an assist to keep it going, if he had been under 30k, he may have been tempting, but Wigan could be good this season.

I disagree about Shawcross, though. Stoke's fixtures fit in well with Wigan and Sunderland....

Koumas was in my original squad until Friday, when I booted him for Pienaar. :roll:

I was reading the excellent pre-season friendly threads, and he was mentioned a fair bit and was involved in a lot of what was good about Wigan pre-season.

One thing I would like to add on topic is that a few of the questions being raised are well covered on last seasons CTC thread - worth a look before going over old ground until we can see how things are this season.

jamielfc · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 23:03

Anyone willing to advise me on Arshavin. Am I safe for tonight?, I want to do Arshavin :arrow:

Gerrard but have absolutely nothing to work with, Gerrard rising tonight or Arshavin falling puts me in a mess. Do you recommend me doing this transfer now or wait until tomorrow(ideally want to get some team news...)

Jonathan · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 23:18

jamielfc wrote:

Anyone willing to advise me on Arshavin. Am I safe for tonight?, I want to do Arshavin :arrow:

Gerrard but have absolutely nothing to work with, Gerrard rising tonight or Arshavin falling puts me in a mess. Do you recommend me doing this transfer now or wait until tomorrow(ideally want to get some team news...)

Judging by earlier figures, you would appear to be safe. But this is very early doors in the season. If money is tight, I always make the change before any likely price rises - regardless of team news. With Liverpool losing their first game, I can't see Gerrard not playing.

jamielfc · **Posted:** 17 Aug 2009, 23:34

Jonathan wrote:

jamielfc wrote:

Anyone willing to advise me on Arshavin. Am I safe for tonight?, I want to do Arshavin :arrow:

Gerrard but have absolutely nothing to work with, Gerrard rising tonight or Arshavin falling puts me in a mess. Do you recommend me doing this transfer now or wait until tomorrow(ideally want to get some team news...)

Judging by earlier figures, you would appear to be safe. But this is very early doors in the season. If money is tight, I always make the change before any likely price rises - regardless of team news. With Liverpool losing their first game, I can't see Gerrard not playing.

Cheers Jonathan. Decided to follow what you usually do and play it safe(if there is a safe when its injury risk vs price fall risk) by doing the switch now. Don't want to be forced into another transfer...

Sasquatch · **Joined:** Sun Jul 12 2009 **Posts:** 205

First price rises are up.

Koumas
Evra
Shawcross
Rodallega
Drogba.

Edit: And dropping are;

Kuszczak
Tomkins
Carew

RomynPG · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 01:18

Sasquatch wrote:

First price rises are up.

Koumas
Evra
Shawcross
Rodallega
Drogba.

Edit: And dropping are;

Kuszczak
Tomkins
Carew

..and to help those trying to hone in on the numbers

Total team count 1,716,791

Koumas 4.9% 51290 NTI
Evra 20.1% 27095 NTI
Shawcross 10.0% 27349 NTI
Rodallega 3.2% 34652 NTI
Drogba 12.5% 34827 NTI

Kuszczak 0.7% -1601 NTI
Tomkins 0.7% -1552 NTI
Carew 2.9% -5954 NTI

Most NTI without a rise

Bassong 5.1% 33590 NTI (which seems a bit strange but I'm sure someone will explain why)

edit: just seen FKC's post the the other (wrong :roll:

) thread that explains the Bassong thing

edit2: oh - it's gone :lol:

but I did manage to copy this bit

FKC wrote:

Fabregas 23,166
Modric 19,737

So the rise threshold looks to be over 23,166 and less than 27,095 - so reds' guess of 25,000 looks a pretty good one!

flyingkillercob · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 01:42

Bassong was a latecomer to the game so probably on amnesty.
Fabregas was the next highest not to rise at 23,166. So 25,000 looks a good guess!

edit: I deleted that post after trying to work out why it hadn't shown up in this thread :oops:

RomynPG · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 01:45

Think we're all sorted how ... :mrgreen:

marko_v_111 · **Joined:** Mon Aug 18 2008 **Posts:** 365

is there a link up and running?

RomynPG · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 05:46

Not yet

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Yes, apologies for that Bassong was protected due to him being added late.

25k looks a reasonable threshold at the moment with Fabregas not rising on 22,873 NTI

I need to go away and look at the price drops and see what's what, but this is the current rises table as of this morning.

ID PlayerName Form Price PriceRiseThreshold GWNetTransfers GWAdjustedTransfers PercentageToRise
16 Fabregas 22.00 10.50 25000.00 23325 23325 93.30
374 Modric 5.00 7.50 25000.00 20072 20072 80.29
395 Noble 14.00 6.00 25000.00 16200 16200 64.80
293 Rooney 9.00 11.00 25000.00 13295 13295 53.18
380 Bent 6.00 7.00 25000.00 12405 12405 49.62
195 Zamora 9.00 5.50 25000.00 12281 12281 49.12
379 Defoe 2.00 8.50 25000.00 11958 11958 47.83
388 Upson 12.00 5.50 25000.00 11879 11879 47.52
276 O'Shea 6.00 5.50 25000.00 10303 10303 41.21
233 Gerrard 7.00 12.50 25000.00 10055 10055 40.22
361 Assou-Ekotto 9.00 5.00 25000.00 9912 9912 39.65
411 N'Zogbia 6.00 5.50 25000.00 9448 9448 37.79

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

These are the current drops, and it looks like the top 3 were all just short prior to the update so they should drop tonight:

ID PlayerName PriceFallThreshold GWNetTransfers GWAdjustedTransfers FallTarget PercentageToFall YellowFlagged RedFlagged
242 Zabaleta 10.00 -1036 -1036 1000.00 -103.60 False False
398 Savio 10.00 -162 -162 160.00 -101.25 False False
412 Watson 10.00 -162 -162 160.00 -101.25 False False
136 Alex 10.00 -3003 -3003 3020.00 -99.44 False False
42 Agbonlahor 10.00 -18744 -18744 19010.00 -98.60 False False
20 Wilshere 10.00 -4184 -4184 4370.00 -95.74 False False
468 Kalinic 10.00 -310 -310 330.00 -93.94 False False
157 Sturridge 10.00 -618 -618 670.00 -92.24 False False
451 Tevez 10.00 -17790 -17790 19350.00 -91.94 False False
439 Jones 10.00 -145 -145 160.00 -90.63 False False

Pieman666 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 07:13

FWIW, I suspect Kalinic will be on an amnesty, similar to Bassong.

Thanks for the effort with these figures btw - very helpful.

diamondplus · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 07:39

Now that we're off and running, I'll turn on CTC when I get home tonight. I'll set the threshold to 25,000 and we'll go from there.

We'll also need to keep an eye on Bassong and his "new player protection"

EDIT:

I'm missing data from last Thursday backwards (I was still faffing with my PC as that point!). If players who were added last week are indeed protected then I'm falling short.

Does anybody have a list of players who were added last week and the dates when they were added?

Abumies · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 07:44

Lovin it! No Fab price rise. Was hoping but not really beliving...

Now I can go ahead with plan A if he aint injured against Celtic

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 07:54

If he is fit enough to play against Celtic :lol:

Faceache · **Joined:** Mon Sep 29 2008 **Posts:** 39

diamondplus wrote:

Now that we're off and running, I'll turn on CTC when I get home tonight. I'll set the threshold to 25,000 and we'll go from there.

We'll also need to keep an eye on Bassong and his "new player protection"

EDIT:

I'm missing data from last Thursday backwards (I was still faffing with my PC as that point!). If players who were added last week are indeed protected then I'm falling short.

Does anybody have a list of players who were added last week and the dates when they were added?

I've got csv files for every hour going back a few week if you need. PM me

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 08:30

Come on Koumas, only another 20k to go

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

PlayerId, DateAdded
478 2009-08-10 15:00:09.133
475 2009-08-10 15:00:09.867
477 2009-08-10 15:00:10.523
476 2009-08-10 15:00:11.070
479 2009-08-13 22:02:03.113
480 2009-08-13 22:02:03.863
481 2009-08-13 22:02:04.443
482 2009-08-13 22:02:05.193
492 2009-08-17 07:51:30.250
489 2009-08-17 07:51:30.890
495 2009-08-17 07:51:31.343
502 2009-08-17 07:51:31.983
486 2009-08-17 07:51:32.733
485 2009-08-17 07:51:33.407
488 2009-08-17 07:51:34.000
507 2009-08-17 07:51:34.797
503 2009-08-17 07:51:35.513
506 2009-08-17 07:51:36.140
484 2009-08-17 07:51:36.670
496 2009-08-17 07:51:37.233
497 2009-08-17 07:51:37.810
493 2009-08-17 07:51:38.280
504 2009-08-17 07:51:39.000
487 2009-08-17 07:51:39.953
494 2009-08-17 07:51:41.610
483 2009-08-17 07:51:43.437
498 2009-08-17 07:51:44.577
500 2009-08-17 07:51:45.500
505 2009-08-17 07:51:46.060
499 2009-08-17 07:51:47.140
501 2009-08-17 07:51:47.687
490 2009-08-17 07:51:48.093
491 2009-08-17 07:51:48.593

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Pieman666 wrote:

FWIW, I suspect Kalinic will be on an amnesty, similar to Bassong.

Thanks for the effort with these figures btw - very helpful.

I think Kalinic is fine at the moment:

Added on the 5th August and protected for 7 days
Protection removed on the 12th August
Ownership calculated on the 15th August as the season begun

mistong · **Joined:** Thu Jan 17 2008 **Posts:** 50

So on current data what will Koumas have to reach to get another price rise this game week?

And if he goes over that limit today will it still count or will it be reset because of the end of the GW.

I think it is likley that he will be hit hard today as more people start to see there is a game mid week and that their players will not play.

Cheers

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

If Koumas is to rise tonight he'll have to get another 20,000 transfers (give or take) as his target threshold will be reset after the deadline tonight along with everyone else.

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 10:05

Won't he go up again tonight, as his target threshold will be reset to 25,000!

OK, that's what you said - I misread.

I suggest taking the 0.1m and moving on, I don't think he's worthy of a long term investment

Megatons · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 10:33

Here's a thought....

Do we know how many people use CTC on a regular basis!?

Do we have enough purchasing power between us to affect the market in our favour?

Or would that not be considered good form?!

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 11:23

48111 - 227

CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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