CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Currently 10% as it seemed to fit the pattern last night as there were players over 9.5% down but didn't drop.

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 18:23

Maureenho wrote:

Keep up the real-time monitoring, blahblah. I'm gonna give you a high five at the deadline when the 0.1m is secured 8-)

6100(ish)

Red, White & Black · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 18:25

diamondplus wrote:

Sorry guys,

I was planning on getting CTC up and running tonight but I'm going to have to defer 'til tomorrow instead. I've just had a go and it's not working for the new arrivals (i.e. Bassong). I'm going out soon so I won't have the time tonight.

Many, many sorrys!

No need to aoplogise!

I think we're all glad you put that effort in you do!

Many thanks!

Hope Agents · **Joined:** Wed Jul 23 2008 **Posts:** 499

Sorry if this has been answered already, but why hasn't Bassong risen in price?

Also, is Bent likely to rise in price by tonight?

flare2 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 20:38

Hope Agents wrote:

Sorry if this has been answered already, but why hasn't Bassong risen in price?

Also, is Bent likely to rise in price by tonight?

there's only 5 pages to read! It's not hard.

But as I'm feeling nice it's because he is price protected (for 7 days I think) as all new players joining FPL are.

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Has that put a brake on the Koumas bandwagon?

ID PlayerName Form Price PriceRiseThreshold GWNetTransfers GWAdjustedTransfers PercentageToRise
374 Modric 5.00 7.50 25000.00 113 30334 121.34
16 Fabregas 22.00 10.50 25000.00 1189 27049 108.20
395 Noble 14.00 6.00 25000.00 473 19910 79.64
380 Bent 6.00 7.00 25000.00 2459 19113 76.45
293 Rooney 9.00 11.00 25000.00 186 18969 75.88
379 Defoe 2.00 8.50 25000.00 5 17954 71.82
276 O'Shea 6.00 5.50 25000.00 80 16641 66.56
195 Zamora 9.00 5.50 25000.00 453 16543 66.17
415 Koumas 10.00 5.10 25000.00 94 15468 61.87

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:00

NTI's and thresholds reset tonight, for those with increases/decreases. That correct?

iambalrog · **Joined:** Thu Oct 13 2005 **Posts:** 8

What are the latest thoughts on price drops? Arshavin is the one we're all watching

Do we still think he is just shy of the % needed (and sub 90%?)

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Thresholds already reset after the deadline, so everyone is base for rises and falls except those flagged.

Anyone rising all falling at circa 3am will have their thresholds altered as per normal.

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:07

The Koumas Gold Train has ran out of coal, and the steam pressure from the engine is falling rapidly.

:cry:

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:09

I thought Koumas, for example, needed 75k for double rise by update time tonight(tomorrow morning).

Otherwise he needs another 25k (after the update) for his price to rise.

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:13

The threshold resets at the gameweek deadline (19:30), so before the deadline he needed 50k to rise again tonight, but after the deadline only needs 25k to rise tonight.

You only need double to rise in the same gameweek. We're in gw2 now.

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:16

That is me confused.

I thought he needed 75k by update time tonight.

Did he need 75k by deadline time, then?

So he needs another 25k by next deadline time, then?

Modric for example had it all reset earlier, but we can still buy him without the increase?

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

blahblah wrote:

That is me confused.

I thought he needed 75k by update time tonight. In theory yes, but the deadline was always going to reset his target to 25k

Did he need 75k by deadline time, then? There can't be a price change at deadline time.

So he needs another 25k by next deadline time, then? He now needs roughly 10k NTI as he carried over 15k from prior to the deadline.

Modric for example had it all reset earlier, but we can still buy him without the increase?

flare2 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:24

so as there has been a reset does that mean SEB won't drop this evening? I'm sure I understood this better at the end of last season, amazing what a couple of months in the sun does....!

tbag101 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 28 2006 **Posts:** 256

how about rodallega?
his NTI in total stands at about 52k.
...so if the threshold of 25k is correct, he could be set for another rise tonight, correct?

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:26

Murder1 wrote:

blahblah wrote:

That is me confused.

I thought he needed 75k by update time tonight. In theory yes, but the deadline was always going to reset his target to 25k He is on 69k NTI now, so the "unused were ditched at 7.30?

Did he need 75k by deadline time, then? There can't be a price change at deadline time. I meant for his price to change overnight tonight.

So he needs another 25k by next deadline time, then? He now needs roughly 10k NTI as he carried over 15k from prior to the deadline. The transfers from 7.30?

Modric for example had it all reset earlier, but we can still buy him without the increase?

He will rise over night? and only the transfers from 7.30 wil carry over to a reset target of 25k, including the transfers done after 7.30?

This is complicated, so sorry for going over what is obvious to you.

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:27

tbag101 wrote:

how about rodallega?
his NTI in total stands at about 52k.
...so if the threshold of 25k is correct, he could be set for another rise tonight, correct?

the second target wad 75(ish)k.

He will not carry all of them over - see my questions above.

reds363 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:36

To try and explain the resets etc, here's an example of a situation that often happens, using a scenario that may well happen in the next few days:

Say Bent rises tomorrow (Wed) night (ie Thurs 01:00 or whatever the cutoff time is) with +35k. The extra 10k over the target are discarded and then his NTI is reset (in price change calculating terms, not in terms of what's shown on FPL stats!) and he needs 50k from Thurs 01:00 to rise again. Say he achieves another +42k over Thursday and Friday, he will not rise on Friday night because he is 8k short of his target.

However the next gameweek deadline passes on Saturday so his target will be reset to 25k; on Saturday night he will surely be past that* and so will rise then. (*We still count from his last reset which is his Wednesday night change; so on Saturday night his NTI will be 42k + whatever he gets on Saturday)

(And then any transfers over the 25k threshold are again discarded, and he would need a further 50k counting from Sun 01:00 to rise again before the next gameweek deadline)

This does not account for various resets that occur due to injury flags or transferring clubs, but let's not get into that here!

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

No worries blahblah it helps me convince myself I understand simply what Flyman, D+, reds363 and others have mentioned in the past.

SEB could possibly drop tonight flare2, the reset at deadline time is simply for the target thresholds not the NTI figure.
SEB is currently 18k NTO away from a fall, so they could either occur tonight or throughout tomorrow.

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:42

So Koumas could well go up tonight, then. As his 69k NTI will see him over the reset to 25k level?

Tonight Modric will lose 8k(ish), Fab 5k(ish), and unless there is a hunt surge that will be it. If Bassong rises he will lose 26k(ish)?

Then they start again with 25k as the target?

flyingkillercob · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:43

Thresholds are reset at GW deadlines.

The running NTI count is reset whenever a player: Changes price. Has his flag status reset. Changes clubs.

Rodallega is NOT on a count of 52k. When he rose last night, he was on 34,652. All of those NTI have now been reset (because he changed in price) and so his running count is now roughly 18,000.

blahblah wrote:

He is on 69k NTI now, so the "unused were ditched at 7.30?

51,290 were ditched last night. No ditching occurs at GW deadline time. He is now on (69,000-51,000=) 18,000 (roughly speaking).

Maureenho · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:45

I thought you understood this blahblah, you were counting Koumas NTI's properly earlier. Was that just a fluke? :lol:

Bernie Steak · **Joined:** Thu Aug 13 2009 **Posts:** 5

I thought I had this nailed from my earlier posts and the replies it got, but now I'm not so sure!

Is the following correct?

BEFORE the transfer deadline today Fabregas was over the 25,000 target NTI.

This means he should rise .1 in value tonight (tomorrow AM).

This is despite the fact that the NTI (on the FPL site) reset at transfer deadline.

To rise again, would he then need to be bought by only another 25,000, despite his rise tonight being inside the gameweek 2-3 period? Or would he need to be bought by about 75,000 more (2X NTI again), because his rise, although based on 25,000 NTI in the build up todays 19:30 deadline, made him rise during this current gameweek?

:oops:

blahblah · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:47

I was reporting FPL ins minus outs for the week.

Murder1 · **Joined:** Sat Oct 18 2008 **Posts:** 1283

Bernie Steak wrote:

I thought I had this nailed from my earlier posts and the replies it got, but now I'm not so sure!

Is the following correct?

BEFORE the transfer deadline today Fabregas was over the 25,000 target NTI. Correct

This means he should rise .1 in value tonight (tomorrow AM). Correct

This is despite the fact that the NTI (on the FPL site) reset at transfer deadline. They reset the gameweek count as we are on a new gameweek now, but the 25k+ NTI's Fab had have been carried over.

To rise again, would he then need to be bought by only another 25,000, despite his rise tonight being inside the gameweek 2-3 period? Or would he need to be bought by about 75,000 more (2X NTI again), because his rise, although based on 25,000 NTI in the build up todays 19:30 deadline, made him rise during this current gameweek?

If/When he rises tonight (Wednesday am) his target will become 50,000 and his NTI count set to 0.
:oops:

reds363 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:51

blahblah wrote:

So Koumas could well go up tonight, then. As his 69k NTI will see him over the reset to 25k level?

Tonight Modric will lose 8k(ish), Fab 5k(ish), and unless there is a hunt surge that will be it. If Bassong rises he will lose 26k(ish)?

Then they start again with 25k as the target?

No. Koumas rose last night with +51k. That is 26k over the target, those 26k are 'wasted'.

If a gameweek deadline had not passed he would need 50k more, but because a deadline has passed he only needs 25k more. He needs this target amount, counting from 01:00 this morning (so the 25k used for the first rise, and the wasted 26k, are not counted any more).

He therefore will have an overall NTI of +76k when he next rises (25k on top of what he had before his last rise).

Confused?

Bernie Steak · **Joined:** Thu Aug 13 2009 **Posts:** 5

Murder1 wrote:

If/When he rises tonight (Wednesday am) his target will become 50,000 and his NTI count set to 0.

Thanks, got it.

It's the gameweek NTI versus "actual" or "cumulative/price affecting" NTI and different deadlines that was messing with my mind.

reds363 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 21:57

NTI counts are not reset at gameweek deadlines, they carry over.
NTI counts are only reset to 0 at the time a price change happens.

Targets are increased after each price change (to 50k after the first rise in a GW; to 75k after the second rise, etc..)
Targets are always reset to 25k after gameweek deadlines.

The first, bolded, point is the most confusing maybe, because FPL's stats give GW transfers in/out. But for price change calculation purposes, NTI's are clocked up continuously from day 1 of the season, with the exception of resets every time a rise (or fall) occurs (plus various resets due to injury flags etc)

flare2 · **Posted:** 18 Aug 2009, 22:17

just been reading the first page and if SEB follows the calcuations (22.5% drop threshold) he is exactly on the money to drop tonight but then I saw this:

"Red flagged for more than one day: Transfers will not count for seven days, the price will not change during this limbo period. After 7 days the count is reset to 0 and transfers have their normal effect."

Does that mean there will be no transfer. I definitely want to get rid but I want to wait until tomorrow if possible.

CRACK THE CODE 2009/10 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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