Just some comments on your maths Flyman
Flyman wrote:
One error, I believe, is that 0.45 would register as 0.4%, not 0.5%. This will alter your Min Ownership figure.
In standard maths, 0.5 is rounded up to 1.
So it
should be the case that 0.45% registers as 0.5%, and 0.55% registers as 0.6%.
However here, since each single ownership is a tiny fraction of a percent of all 1.3 million, anyone registering as 0.5% could be between 0.450000% and 0.549999%, so it is near as dammit good enough to take 0.45 and 0.55 as your lower and upper bounds.
Flyman wrote:
My second point is a question, rather than a correction ....
Flyingkillercob has taken the route of looking to a Fall Threshold as a consequence of NTOs based on Starting Figures. This is feasibly the way the Falls are determined.
It is also feasible, is it not, that the Fall Threshold is based on Contemporary Figures, not Starting Figures?
That is, that the fall is triggered when the NTO reaches, say, 11% of a player's Current %OB, not his Starting %OB.
You are correct, but actually doesn't matter which you use: you will get a slightly different percentage but it means the same thing.
Let's presume the drop threshold is 10% of Starting Ownership. Say player A was owned by 10,000 teams so needs 1,000 NTO to drop. At the time of dropping he will be owned by 9,000 teams so the NTO (1000) is 11.1% of his Current Ownership.
And say the threshold is 25% of Starting Ownership (eg for injured players?), this would be exactly equivalent to 33.3% of Current Ownership.
Perhaps for clarity you chaps could all declare which to work with (S.O. or C.O.), so you don't cross swords with different percentages etc. I guess D+'s site must go from Starting Ownerships, but it is possible to work now using either set of figures (and convert the answer/s you come up with if necessary for D+).
Flyman wrote:
Finally, although Vela fell at 826 NTO, he may well have crossed the threshold at 815 NTO or less!
For instance, had he fallen at just 800 NTO then the Fall Threshold could be as low as 11.12%, etc.
Good point,
very important. You're only gonna get an upper bound on the actual % threshold from any risers/fallers, you'll have to get lower bounds from non-risers/non-fallers. (This is because, as Flyman mentioned, a riser or faller is PAST the threshold; maybe only just but maybe by quite some distance)
eg for the risers, Djourou's 20,638 is now an upper bound, and Ashton's 17,629 (plus 1!) is a lower bound.
Similar works for fallers, ie (using FKC's first shot at analysing Vela, going with the Starting Ownership figures) 12.3% is an upper bound for the drop threshold. The lower bound is then NOT 10.3% (as, say, the threshold could have been 8%, he's still past it!) - but must be determined from someone who is a non-riser.
Good luck all in the quest to Crack The Code, good work so far.
(reds363 - CTC mathematical consultant) 
Are the deadline NTO details for Senderos and Essien available, please?
Would all those collecting data please try to take the '% Owned By' (%OB) from any 
11.48%
