I'm just cherry-picking here - as I'm a clueless as the next man on all this - but as these two have already risen don't they need and extra ~30k NTI to rise again?

Deco had 32K-ish at his rise last night - so has only 6K towards his next rise which would be at ~30K more (24K to go)

Agbon also had 32K-ish for his rise - so has 4k towards the next one (until it's reset at the beginning of the GW2) - so ~26K to go.

(approx thresholds at 15K and 30K etc until otherwise corrected)

...or have I got this completely wrong?

oh, and downing is the other one.
i have him as 3k nto's,
but diamondplus, you have him as about -3k nto's.
not sure if that's just something in the wrong spot somewhere?

no, you're right.
and were probably typing that as i typed the one just above yours.
yes, double the nti target for the 2nd rise.
will edit my upper post.

By -3k d+ means 3k NTI

I believe there is an error on d+`s Bosingwa calculation, though?

Because the previous thread got consigned to some strange space-time loop thing (thanks Flyman for reconstructing this one) my heart-felt praise and gratitude to DiamondPlus was also lost... so I'd like to reiterate that again...

Thank You D+ for you incredible work on this - he's on the case now

and for those that are new ... just you wait until D+ is all up and running and you too will join in the chorus of worship

... and because I like the image and feel it sums things up nicely



...and obviously thanks to everybody else who has contributed to this thread over the years and has a clue about what's going on

but downing is clearly 3k NTO, not NTI.

This shouldn`t be confusing. We are both muddling our words.

It is -3k NTI. The same as 3k NTO.

I'll be at my desk pretending to work again so can grab the extra decimal place manually and post them on here for the predicted fallers.

Suggest we all just use NTI or NTI/O and always quote those in the negative as -

Say no to NTO

NTI -3k is where it's at

Nice one tedbull

I'll run my script again and you can manually look at ~150 players who have NTI as a negative and note their % - the devil's in the detail you know

Any chance of narrowing that down a bit?

Nice to come back from my annual night out and see some good work done!

I make Bosingwa's NTI currently at 15916 = Unlikely to rise.

Well done, DanCaek! Sterling work, there.

Tedbull: What would be most useful is if you could record the %OB to 1 decimal point on Profile of any fallers.
I'm hoping shortly to post a table of '%OB = xxxxx managers. This should help focus on likely changers. If you could record the %OB of near-but-not fallers that would be very helpful.
Again, please someone record the Total Players at the time of update.

Well done, diamondplus! We'll build a statue to you in time!

RomynPG - Well done on getting Team No. 1, dude!
So envious!!

Sorry Flyman - but what the hell is OB??? Can you please not use sooo many abbreviations in your posts please. I'm trying to follow this and you just made me go all glassy eyed ... again!!!

Owned By.

Aaaahhh... I see. It would be a hell of a lot easier to follow a lot of this if there weren't too many ABBRs added to the existing ones to be honest...

Ramsey looks a certainty to fall. I make Essien and Alex borderline along with Huddlestone and Lawrence.

Also G.Neville and Belletti's NTO gathering pace (not tonight, though).

Unless I'm doing something wrong, that is.

And there we go...

1,325,695 total players

Rise:
Ashton.

Fall:
Alex
Ramsey
Riga (only 0.2% ownership)
Bojinov Escaped our predictions due to his injury. I don't profess to understand the threshold changes when injured.

I've grabbed the extra decimal place for some of the fallers (and near fallers) and will post something up soon - unless someone else is already onto it.

In my post of 11:19 this morning I wrote:

Sorry, Dixie, but my posts on this bit of the thread aren't meant as a tutorial. I'm just trying out ideas and hoping those who already understand how the Code works will correct my errors. To write out everything in full every time simply isn't practical. The tutorial bit is in the opening posts and is being modified when new details are known, if that helps.

Ashton's NTI = 20,999 as of now.

Fallers (and near fallers):



Mendes points to some rounding issues as discussed earlier (even at 3.4499999999 he exceeds 25%) unless there are other factors in play.

Riga's rounding also creates an issue. Presumably his %OB was closer to 0.15 - which would cause him to exceed 11%.

Alex's figure of 10.8% points to a lower threshold or a rounding problem. But 3.0 was the figure given on his profile.

Everything else seems to follow FISO wisdom.

List of % Owned BY (%OB) -> Number Owned By

As of 20/08/08. Total Players = 1,326,000.

0.5% = 6630
1.0% = 13,260
1.5% = 19,890
2.0% = 26,520
2.5% = 33,150
3.0% = 39,780
3.5% = 46,410
4.0% = 52,940

More tomorrow - Knackered.

Ted: Check the 2nd post:


Mendes transferred v. close to the start of the season and is probably under this rule, having now left the Premiership.

Price Rises (and near rises):



Much more straightforward.

None of the risers from yesterday got anywhere close to another 35k NTI.

Ashton rose at 21,148 NTI so we have the threshold narrowed down to somewhere below that and above the 17odd thousand from yesterday.

I have the text files saved if anyone wants/needs them.

That's two nights that it seems to have updated at the same time also.

2.05am GMT. (11.05am AEST - just a nice time-filler before I get some lunch )

tedbull wrote:

That one looks like a gem!

Those accurate ownership percentages will only come into play at the next drop for each player mentioned.

Unless things have changed, it was the ownership at 11.30am on Saturday that determined the current drops.


Mendes: I think I remember dp or lucanjerry mentioning a field that was only set to 1 for players that had left the EPL. If that's right you can ignore him

Do any of the FISO boffins fancy having a look at the CYKI price changes? After all, that is where the money is

Firstly, just want to put on record my appreciation to all of those involved in the crackthecode website. Very useful.

Now, i must confess, i have tried to understnd the mechanisms behind this but i'm not mathematically minded and can't get my head round it.

Caould someone be so kind as to answer me a simple question or 2? When is Santa Cruz likely to rise and Van Persie likely to fall?

Thank you

bigcliff2: Go to the first post on this thread and click on the Price Change Site link.
Bookmark it, if you will. You'll be back there plenty of times this season!

Santa Cruz is at the top of the Risers List. When his NTI (15007) reaches the Target NTI (circa 17514) his price will rise.
You can also see how many NTI he's got today - 516 (2.9%). At that rate he'll take another day, maybe two days, to rise. Just keep an eye on him every day.
The market is always more active on Friday night, btw, so expect greater sales, in and out, then.

Next, click on 'Drops' and seek out van Persie. He's still several thou off a change. Use the site to monitor him as well as Santa.

Job done!

Cheers for the swift and helpful response. I understand how to read the information in the columns, the guts of my question (and confusion) is how long it would take to reach the NTI based on the figure for today. I gather, from your reply, that it's a wait-and-see scenario so i'll hold off for the rest of the day and keep an eye on it. Must say again, that's some work done by you boys, well done...