nice to see another effort made at this & maybe some new faces will bring the technical wherewithall to capture this info that they annoyingly guard so secretly. here's the thread i started from last season which didn't get far, but maybe the new java applet windows will be easier to capture to harddrive.



they don't update that. it's only for the start.

the big issue here is that bearing in mind that the premierleague game is growing and there will be a great many "virgins" and we are coming off a world cup in which everyone was repeatedly reminded how great some of the EPL players are ..... (!) .. it may be prudent to play the market in the first few weeks.

ie ...

assume for example i am currently of the view that lamp/gerr/henry will suffer a wcup hangover and while they will be very important for the duration of the season, i would like to only pick them up in november. and assume that the chattering classes are all going to select all three.

the probability therefore is that their prices will shoot up initially.

the problem for me is whether the prices will come down proportionately if i am correct about their wcup hangovers. if not, it would be better for me to buy these players for the first 3 weeks to get the price rise, then unload them and then buy them back at a similar price in november.

from what i recall last year, the pricing mechanism usually moved upwards more quickly than downwards (although that may have been a reflection on managers acting more quickly to snap up players while hanging on to them longer than they should have in the reverse circumstances)

The only players that will significantly (more than 0.2) go up in price initially are the ones that perform well in the opening fixtures.


If you're correct and they're not playing well their price will never go up?

The price may come down in proportion to how many managers started with them so, if anything, the players you mentioned will actually drop more slowly than the rest.

thats my point

Last year this list was updated constantly as the prices changed. Just that it was not linked to from the 'homepage' - you had to go into 'rules' and find where it said 'list of all player values here'

Thought this deserved a bump as we move towards kick off.

Can we have a few suggestions from those involved about which players to watch - and how many, who's going to follow who, etc.?

Anyone else prepared to lend a hand?

If I remember correctly, the general formula for this seems to be that the price goes up if I'm about to sign them and down if I'm about to sell

Well, we need to select a leader first and we need to know how many members wanna join this study group. Once this is done, then tasks can be given to members accordingly.

i'm willing to contribute if you just tell me what I need to do.....

There is no way you can get a quality team without having cash in the bank and you can only do that if you can predict the market - anything that helps in that quest will be fine......

Black_Horse and jamgillespie (Welcome, jg), thanks for your (continued) interest!
I'd be chuffed if some member can devise a way forward here.
Currently, and most sadly, I am dealing with family matters that must take my attention away from FPL.com beyond the degree required by our quest.
I'm sorry, guys, but sometimes life is like that.

I've really got to ask someone else to devise our next step forward - i.e. the 'Who Monitors Who' decesions, both before and after GW1 deadline.
But, I reckon I can be by a computer at those all-important last few minutes before the game starts, and be able to record/save some players' stats each evening, close to 1 a.m.
Who else can?

I'll check back here as the week passes and accept any instruction given, plus contribute any thoughts I feel valuable, but would greatly appreciate a fellow member taking the initiative to co-ordinate us all.

All the best, Flyman.

To those guys who were up for the job ..... cheers!
Sadly, it doesn't look like we'll get to grips with it as a group, this season, anyway.
If you are going to try and crack the code on your own, best of luck to you!

Why not share any data we can collect independently here, on this thread, for the benefit of all?

Personally, I'll try and get 10 players' details who I hope will rise and ten who I hope will fall. If a few others do the same we may get somewhere yet. Shame it is unco-ordinated, but life's like that sometimes, eh?

Best of luck to y'all in the new season!

I'll be tracking stats for my first team and those on my watchlist, i'll let you know if i discover anything of interest.

it's 11:29 and i've printed my watchlist off of 22 players off (a whole range of players) - and got teams selected by % noted. Will keep a daily tab on transfer activity and see what can be deduced from that - will share my findings with the forum.

What was the total no. of teams you noted j?

the sites back on have 737233 teams in total

You have 737233 teams entered....? they will spot that you know... and chuck you out!

Not if hes entered them under different emails and is clever about his logging on patterns!

Talking about logging patterns. I am now a little concerned about that. My wife plays this game and entered using her work email address - but we will often both log on one after the other here at home where my team is registered, and sometimes I will log into her team to see how she is doing straight after checking mine.

Wonder if they will regard that as suspicious logging activity - seemed Ok with the same set-up last year.

As long as you registered first you'll ok, the wifes team will be deleted

NO IT WON'T

As long as the teams are registered with different names, you're on safe ground.

Really pleased to see folks still interested in this. I grabbed about two dozen players' '% bought by' and will post when I'm able. Hopefully Monday.

As for the total number of players, I made it 732 295 at 11:25, but it had risen to 737 233 by GW1's start!

Load of last-minute Marys joining!

Nicely put Tort... need to get my priority in order... as long as I am alright I am happy!

Whats the latest with the investigation?

Out of the players that i am monitoring:

Most net transfers in = Scott parker @ 1281

Most net transfers out = Chimbonda @ 1210

I reckon Parker needs another + 6000 before he rises and Chimbonda -13500 before he falls.

In short, i think it will be a while before we see any changes in price.

(of course the above is only true if the formula i am using is correct. I think Ferg will confirm that there may be an element of the equation still to discover)

I've done a summary topic to try and get the current thoughts highlighted in one place.

I agree with your figures reg, hopefully it'll work the same way this year and I'll be able to concentrate on whether the 10% theory holds up.

Not sure whether prices go down again after a further 10% but have better data to work with this time.

Injuries will always be tricky to account for as who knows when the red i will appear but we may be able to crack it if everything else becomes clear.

Not necessarily. As my team has its fill of leagues (all long-standing prior arrangements going back a couple of years), I made a second one (a clone of the first) using a different name and e-mail to enter comps here as I'd been kindly invited to do so last year but had had to decline, and it was deleted as a duplicate, presumably due to "logging-in activity" being picked-up as "suspicious".

Slightly embarassing, but que sera sera...

The 3 very early bandwagons appear to be Campbell, Mellberg and Zamora.

I reckon each of these could go up by £0.1m overnight. Campbell needs a further +1820 transfers, Mellberg +1866 and Zamora +2825.

Nobody else is close to the threshold.

Nobody is close to a price drop yet.

Edit: In the last 10 minutes since i put these figures together all 3 players have received a further +200 transfers in

Reckon Bridge will go up in the next two days or so after his 9 points

Parker is now ~5800 net in
Campbell is ~11000 in

Post deleted on the basis it was completely misleading rubbish based on faulty logic.