sorbiegunner wrote:
Given that Brown was (supposedly) as bad as the posts above would tell us and that New Labour was at an all time low in popularity, the fact that Cameron wasn't able to win the election for the Tories must tell us something about either him or the Tories or both.
Blair was likeable years before and swept to election victory for three consecutive General elections, Cameron is that likeable that he can't even scrape one victory in the midst of a Labour / Brown all time low.
Correct, and what it shoudl tell you is just how unpopular the Tories had become in '97 after 18 years in power, that 13 years later even with a likeable leader and a hugely unpopular government they could still barely win, the public wasn't going to let them back in that easily.
But think about the alternative scenario, the Tories coming into the 2010 election was like Labour coming into the 1992 election, and had Brown some how managed to win this year I have absolutely no doubt the public would have soon regretted it and handed him or his successor a crushing defeat 4 or 5 years from now like they did for the Tories in '97, and it would take them a lot longer to recover from that than it should take them now against a coalition. The difference between the leaders was that likeability factor that Cameron had and Brown didn't, can you honestly say if it were reversed and Brown were likeable he wouldn't have won?
With hindsight I think it was a masterstroke for Cameron to be embracing a coalition so quickly when he could have soldiered on in a minority government and then called another election and maybe won small, but even worse risk losing small to a new Labour leader. In excerpts from Mandelson's book he notes that Brown and Campbell thought it made Cameron look weak, but Mandelson thought it was very smart, that he was embracing a new politics, and I think that's so far proved to be right and the public are happy with the result.
As for Blair's 3 victories, the '97 win was so huge with a 180 majority it was more like winning 3 at once, when you win that big it's a given you won't be going anywhere for some time, you should be able to serve at least 2 terms probably 3. The largest Thatcher ever got was about 140 but even with a new leader they still managed to secure a fourth term, an incredible achievement but one that ultimately took it's toll longer term on the party and the country given that Blair was the legacy of those 18 years.