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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 07 Mar 2011, 13:03 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: Somewhere between Glasgow and Edinburgh
FS Record: 2010 Scottish Fiso Open Champion
Just a wee reminder that the deadline for this competition ends in less than 12 hours.


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 Post subject: OFL player value guesses
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 00:57 
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The Old Man
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Location: Pine Cottage
Here are the Purley cogitations...

4.4 Tiger (6.5)
4.3 Westwood (3.6)
4.2 Kaymer (3.2)
2.0 Stenson (2.8)
1.8 S Garcia (2.6)
2.4 Schwartzel (2.3)
3.8 Donald (2.2)
2.9 Kuchar (1.8)
3.0 F Molinari (1.6)
2.0 B Watson (1.1)
1.4 B Haas (1.1)
1.3 M Wilson (1.0)
1.2 SY Noh (1.0)
1.1 T Aiken (1.0)
1.0 Cabrera-Bello (0.9)
0.9 DA Points (0.8)
1.5 Mannasero (0.8)
0.7 J Parry (0.6)
1.2 Gallagher (0.5)
1.1 J Vegas (rookie)


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 Post subject: Shutdown
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 01:01 
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The Old Man
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Location: Pine Cottage
Midnight post to close competition. Good luck, all.


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 09:11 
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FISO Comedy Knight
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Posts: 14256
Location: Living strong
FS Record: FISODAS Champion Season 11 & 16; OFL Golf 4th 09; TFG OFL Overall, Majors, F1oG Winner 09
Looking forward to the results......my main interest is whether Tiger gets priced "by the book" or retains a premium for reputation.....


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 Post subject: Playing a Provisional
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 10:19 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: FL HQ
Listed below are this year's provisional prices:

Tiger (6.5) 4.5
Westwood (3.6) 4.0
Kaymer (3.2) 4.2
Stenson (2.8) 1.5
Ser Garcia (2.6) 1.8
Schwartzel (2.3) 2.3
Donald (2.2) 3.6
Kuchar (1.8) 3.2
F. Molinari (1.6) 2.6
Watson (1.1) 2.6
B Haas (1.1) 1.6
M Wilson (1.0) 1.6
Noh (1.0) 1.5
Aiken (1.0) 1.4
Cabrera-Bello (0.9) 1.0
Points (0.8) 1.1
Manassero (0.8) 2.0
Parry (0.6) 0.9
Gallacher (0.5) 1.2
Vegas (rookie) 1.4

It's certainly much more compact than previous years, but Tiger's still the most expensive player. It will be interesting to see his popularity coming into the Masters.

The main criteria for pricing is as follows:

1) World Ranking - by far the most influential factor, especially lower down the rankings. As a rule of thumb, 0.2-0.3 ranking points is worth $0.1m, so victory in the WGC Cadillac Championship could increase a player's value by as much as $0.6m.

2) Former glories - players who have had poor last 12-24 months in relation to their "peak" are bumped up.

3) Young guns - similarly, those players who are relatively new to the scene but show early promise have also been bumped up.

4) Minor manual adjustments as Mr Green sees fit.


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 Post subject: Bonus key?
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 10:34 
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The Old Man
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Location: Pine Cottage
Thanks, polarbear and Mr G: good game, good game...

Think this pre-contest might be won by person lucky enough to earn bonus points for getting some values spot on.

Quote:
Everyone starts with 100 points; you lose a point for every 0.1 you are out by
(eg: if you guess a player value at 2.2 and actual value is 2.9, you lose 7 points).
You get 5 bonus points for a correct guess.


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 10:45 
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FISO Comedy Knight
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Posts: 14256
Location: Living strong
FS Record: FISODAS Champion Season 11 & 16; OFL Golf 4th 09; TFG OFL Overall, Majors, F1oG Winner 09
I've got 5 right and 6 out by just 0.1m (where's the smiley for "oof! missed by a whisker"?).

But suspect my score will be mullered by my Woods/Kaymer efforts - was too rigid with past year's pricing framework.

Reckon I've got 76pts as my score.

5 right
6 -0.1m
4 -0.2m
2 -0.3m

& 3 mares.


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 11:31 
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FISOhead
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Posts: 500
I am rubbish at this !!

I calculate my score at Minus 216 points :oops:


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 11:45 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: Playing golf in a storm, holding up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron
FS Record: GolfGenius2007, OFLGolf Majors 02, OFL Golf overall 2nd, 4th, 7th & 8th.
2 right :|

7 within 0.1 :x

66 points in total


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 11:54 
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FISO Jedi Knight
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Location: Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error
FS Record: 2008/9 FPL 172nd, CYKI 13th, 2007/8 TFF 6th
5 correct, 3 x -1, 3 x -2 etc = 59 points.


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 12:23 
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Grumpy Old Baggie
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Location: Nuneaton
FS Record: OFL Golf 2008 weekly winner, 8th Fantasy Race to Dubai 2009, 4th NCG golfer winter league 09/10, NCG manager of the month 10/11
2 correct a couple way out ended up with 34


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 12:37 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: Somewhere between Glasgow and Edinburgh
FS Record: 2010 Scottish Fiso Open Champion
Go Compare! Go Compare!

You've had your shot, so here's the lot......


Image

Indeed as SamD has hinted, the bonus points have been important. Although this is just the provisional scores it would be hard to see anyone take the honours from nevblake with an impressive 94 points and 6 values on the nail.

If Mr G was nasty he could make a few tiny adjustments and the picture could change completely with so many of us just out by 0.1


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 13:54 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: Playing golf in a storm, holding up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron
FS Record: GolfGenius2007, OFLGolf Majors 02, OFL Golf overall 2nd, 4th, 7th & 8th.
Nicely bit of work polarbear :)

......and so it's Nevblake who gets the job at Fantasy Towers! :D

I foresee Mr Green retiring to Turkey and winning OFL Golf 2011 by a comfortable margin! :mrgreen:


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 15:57 
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Red & Blue Braces
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toffeelover wrote:
......and so it's Nevblake who gets the job at Fantasy Towers! :D


Woo Hoo! When do I start?

Mr Green, these prices look fine, no need to change!

Cheers Polarbear, good comp.


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 Post subject: The Price Is...Wrong
PostPosted: 08 Mar 2011, 23:06 
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Grumpy Old Man
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The full provisional player list is now available on the 2010 site:

http://golf.fantasyleague.com/Stat/PlayerList.aspx

It appears that I made a slight mistake with the price of DA Points - he's actually 1.2, not 1.1...and thus further increases nevblake's lead.


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 Post subject: Re: The Price Is...Wrong
PostPosted: 09 Mar 2011, 11:48 
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Grumpy Old Baggie
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Location: Nuneaton
FS Record: OFL Golf 2008 weekly winner, 8th Fantasy Race to Dubai 2009, 4th NCG golfer winter league 09/10, NCG manager of the month 10/11
Mr Green wrote:
The full provisional player list is now available on the 2010 site:

http://golf.fantasyleague.com/Stat/PlayerList.aspx

It appears that I made a slight mistake with the price of DA Points - he's actually 1.2, not 1.1...and thus further increases nevblake's lead.


Increases my score by 6 up to 40 8-)


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 Post subject: The Price Is Right
PostPosted: 14 Mar 2011, 18:29 
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Grumpy Old Man
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These are the final (I think!) prices, with the three adjustments for featured players marked:

Tiger (6.5) 4.5
Westwood (3.6) 4.0
Kaymer (3.2) 4.2
Stenson (2.8) 1.5
Ser Garcia (2.6) 1.8
Schwartzel (2.3) 2.3
Donald (2.2) 3.6
Kuchar (1.8) 3.2
F. Molinari (1.6) 2.6 -> 2.8
Watson (1.1) 2.6
B Haas (1.1) 1.6
M Wilson (1.0) 1.6 -> 1.5
Noh (1.0) 1.5
Aiken (1.0) 1.4
Cabrera-Bello (0.9) 1.0
Points (0.8) 1.1 -> 1.2
Manassero (0.8) 2.0
Parry (0.6) 0.9
Gallacher (0.5) 1.2
Vegas (rookie) 1.4

Bit gutted really - identified Watney as one to have in my team for the Masters at his initial price (as I'm sure others would have done), but he has now been bumped up to $2.8m. At least I had a couple of quid on him...


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 17 Mar 2011, 16:10 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Location: Somewhere between Glasgow and Edinburgh
FS Record: 2010 Scottish Fiso Open Champion
Thought I'd post an update after Mr G's tweaks.

As expected nevblake is still our winner. Well done, and thanks to those who took part.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: OFL Players - Guess their value competition
PostPosted: 18 Mar 2011, 09:49 
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Grumpy Old Man
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Joined: Thu Oct 13 2005
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Location: Playing golf in a storm, holding up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron
FS Record: GolfGenius2007, OFLGolf Majors 02, OFL Golf overall 2nd, 4th, 7th & 8th.
Well played nevblake, you were also top if you look at how your prices deviated from the actual ones. Your worst guess was just 5 out 8-)

Just got to transfer your skills to the game itself now :wink:


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