AKNel1 wrote:
Pincher wrote:
Far be it from me to question your knowledge of probabilities TonyM, given your numerous successes in the fantasy world, but the odds aren't anything like 2M/1 surely, given that you had already won the week before - your odds of winning the following week should be more or less the same as they were the previous week - perhaps a little less given that you didn't make any transfers. Or am I wrong?
Of course, if you had told us two weeks ago you had a team that was going to do a double, or should you manage the treble this week, that will be nearer the ball-park. How did you get to 2M/1 anyway?
2,000,000/1 is more like the odds of me winning OFL golf (or any fantasy golf for that matter) this season, though I have scraped into the top 1k now.

2,000/1 ish for week 1
2,000/1 ish for week 2
week 1 * week 2 + week 1 + week 2 = odds of it happening (approx. 4 million to 1)
his chances of winning this week are once again 2,000/1 ish
I guess it depends on what way you look at it - assuming that all teams have an equal probability of winning each week (which isn't strictly true), the probability of a particular individual team winning two successive weekly prizes on two assigned weeks is as AKNel's calculation above.
However, the probability of any one of Tony's teams achieving this is obviously far less (4,000,000 divided by the total number of Tony's teams).
As quoted by Pincher, the probability of Tony winning the second week in a row given that he had won the US Open the week before would only be approximately 2,000-1 - as it would be for any team to win an individual week.
Even so, a quite remarkable feat which I doubt will be repeated for quite some time...and if it was, I'd expect it to be in events with similar fields (such as the WGC Bridgestone Invitational followed by the USPGA or end of season stand-alone European Tour events).