went back over the first 11 gw's captaincy polls here and am pleased to present the following results;

gw ... poll winner(s) by % ........ big points getters (and their poll %)

1 ..... ronaldo 50, rvp 23 ................ n/a
2 .... ronaldo 77 ............................ lamps 5
3 .... arteta 27, rvp 23, fab 16 ........ n/a
4 .... lamps 25, rvp 17, tevez 12 ..... fab 8
5 .... fab 26, tevez 16, lamps 15 ..... fab 26
6 .... fab 24, owen 22, ronaldo 18 ... fab 24
7 .... fab 74 .................................. fab 74
8 .... fab 58 .................................. ronaldo 19, elano 0
9 .... fab 52 .................................. ronaldo 23, elano 1
10 ... fab 56 , ronaldo 18 ............... lamps 1, elano 7
11 ... ronaldo 65 ........................... lamps 2, fab 1, arteta 0
12 ... lamps 39, elano 23 ............... lamps 39, fab 5, ronaldo 1
13 ... fab 39, lamps 25 .................. (so far)

gw's 2, 4, 10, and 11 were low % pollers who got the most pts.
and we can see runs of form for the big boys.
is lamps still in his form run?
or will elano start another?
and if ronaldo wasn't playing away at arsenal ...

Some good captain choices from the current FPL top dog @ GW11 (team - Big Gay Als Bears )

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/M/eventhist.mc?event=11&id=137679

GW1 Lampard(c) 4 pts
GW2 Lampard(c) 20 pts
GW3 Lampard(c) 12 pts
GW4 Lampard(c) 18 pts
GW5 Finnan(c) 14 pts
GW6 Belletti(c) 10 pts
GW7 Fabregas(c) 32 pts
GW8 Fabregas(c) 6 pts
GW9 Fabregas(c) 8 pts
GW10 Lampard(c) 18 pts
GW11 Lampard(c) 28 pts

He's been quite consistent with his captain choices. Lampard(c) for all the gameweeks he's been available.

dunno about anyone else but this table helped me to decide to go with the fiso poll winner (lamps) last week and it was successful. forget about shot in the dark performances like laursens. they're not worth sweating over.

what i hoped to achieve by doing this table was to spot some sort of pattern. i'd read posts about how our consensus choice was not going well this year and wanted to ponder on that.

there's a few ways to read the table;

1 - top points getters appear to come into runs of form. fab had 4 weeks, ronaldo had a mini run of 2 wks, lamps has had 3 weeks, with elano overlapping in there also for a 3 week run.

2 - the weeks when we have been very wrong, when low % pollers were actually the best choice, are gw's 2, 4, 10, and 11. (8 and 9 were borderline where sure the high % poller, fab, wasn't the best but in terms of ronaldo getting the points, he did ok for a poll - 19 and 23 %) so there seems to be a 6-7 week pattern of wrong poll winners. with 2 gw's coming at a time (or close enough). and whilst anything could happen in the future, going on that pattern the next horribly wrong poll should occur around gw's 16-17.

3 - if we look at those main 4 really bad poll weeks as an overall % from 12 gw's that's 33%. if we throw in those borderline gw's of 8 and 9 that becomes 50%. the midpoint of those %'s being just over 40%. which kind of accomodates the soft margin of tolerance and disallowance in those push-me-pull-you type weeks. so we're not altogether wrong as a concensus but being wrong 2 out of 5 times could ideally be reduced to say 1 out of 5. but in sports prediction worlds i understand many pundits say a 60% success rate is pretty good.

of course, one must incorporate 'local' current weekly data in their present captaincy choice ... how's the players immediate form, his teams, how are they playing, who are they playing, where are they playing, injuries on their team & the others, what's the weather like, is it a 'funny' monday nighter, can you wait to monday, is it a double, etc.

which leads me to the current dilemna. has lamps finished his run? is fab or ronaldo about to start another? i think i'll take my thoughts over onto the current gw 12 captaincy thread.

another interpretation of the table is the oscillating pattern of gw's.
i.e. if mirror image of the first 11-12 weeks is examined in terms of whether the poll consensus is correct or not we may be in store for a wrong or iffy week. which would swing me towards ronaldont.

So, for posterity i gathered all the points earned by the top poll pick each week:

GW1 Ronaldo 3
Gw2 Ronaldo -1
GW3 Arteta 2
GW4 Lampard 9
GW5 Fab 11
GW6 Fab 16
GW7 Fab 16
GW8 Fab 3
GW9 Fab 4
GW10 Fab 2
GW11 Ronaldo 2
GW12 Lampard 8

None of those are doubled up obviously, so the grand total with all points doubled is 150

Looking at this thread, i'd say that's fairly average or even a little below average.

EDIT: oops no, on closer inspection i was wrong about Ronaldo & his relationship to the captain poll. Two of the weeks Ronaldo did well, he had 19% & 23%, so disregard what i edited out

That would tend to indicate Ronaldo plays better against stronger opponents then, no? As most poll winners have an easier fixture.

Good point there -- my first instinct was to skipper CRon but then I had second thoughts and went for a safe pick in PAdregas, since the two blokes closest to me in my money league will undoubtedly be captaining him as well.

Perhaps I should stick with my gut and live on the edge a little.

one thing's for sure about CR7 - he loves a challenge and having his back to the wall. i reckon nothing pleases him better than rubbing people's faces in it. perhaps, the Man U fans should start booing him, eh?

i think he'll the opportunity to show everyone what he's made of. during the champion's league match this week, he was quite fired up in making his point, especially after Tevez was substituted.

if I had him in my team, i'd most likely captain him.

also, our captaincy choices trend indicates this will be his week.

Note the edit i made above, i was a bit wrong actually. As for playing better against stronger opposition.

Ronaldo has scored

3, 8 against Chelsea & Arsenal (Big4)

-1, 2, 1 against Pompey, Everton & Villa (Top10)

3, 8, 13, 2 against Reading, Bolton, Wigan & Boro (Bottom half)

Bit of a mixed bag, make of it what you will.