Why are people so obsessed with "differentials"? How many times have you read people saying, for example, that they're thinking of buying Player A as a "differential"? What this means is, they're thinking of buying Player A because so few other people have got him, and therefore, in the unlikely event of him suddenly scoring lots of points, their team will climb up the leagues. But the reason so few other people have got him is because they're not stupid! (And I'm talking about the decent players, not the hordes who've stopped playing by Christmas). It's fine if the differential pays off, which thanks to random probability it very occasionally will, but most of the time it won't, and where does that leave you?

As an illustration of this, take a look at the highest scoring teams in any gameweek. They're full of differentials. Then take a look at their overall position. In FPL, it's usually a million or so down the table.

There's only one reason to buy an unpopular player, and that's if you think you've seen something - his form, fixtures or value for money - that most other players haven't. Even then, the reason for buying him should be his form/fixtures/value, not simply because he's unpopular. We're in this to score points, not to create imaginative team sheets. Aren't we?

I've now added a poll. Generally speaking, are you inclined to be influenced by differentials, or not?

I agree in the main.

The only exception I'd make to that are periodic attempts (weeklies, monthlies, TFF Tinkerman) where a combination of player that would conventionally be unpopular become viable selections.

Of course, one person's definition is different from another, not to mention the context in which it's made. For example, if I found myself in a mini-league with a group of managers that all had Baines, I might say that I'm going to bring in ACole as a differential. Both are popular, but within that mini-league ACole would be considered unpopular, and thus a differential.

RVP was a differential in early October. For those who brought him in around that time, it certainly paid dividends.

I think this explains what you have to consider when you are picking a differential Billy, to pick them just because few people have them is ridiculous.

Let me give you an example of how what you said above can work out

In mid December I was looking at possible players for TW3

I wanted a player few people would think of, played regularly, excellent value and scored goals. I went to the Sun website and got the list of strikers and sorted them into the best value players. I noticed that Morison was about 70ppm, I looked at his scores for each match, and didn't like the fact that he didn't score many points in the first 4 or 5 games.

A couple of days later I was reading a report about a Norwich player, saying how much Morison was coming on since they changed things from the first 4 games, and Morison was getting the nod over Holt, and how well it was working.

I then watched him against Wolves and was impressed by the way he played, he set up Norwich's 2nd goal and was Starman for that game too, all these things coming together swung it for me and I put him in my team.

Morison has scored 29 points so far from TW3 to now, and has scored more than Van Persie, Rooney or Aguero. So they can work, but you need to have that many reasons why you would include them, that you would be daft if you didn't

I would be gutted now if I had done all that work, bottled it and gone with Aguero instead of Morison

In a way this proves my point. After the Sunderland game on October 16, Van Persie became a bandwagon, with people piling onto him week after week. The differential would have been not to have bought RVP at that point.

Star Man - What you've described only goes to prove my other point, ie that "There's only one reason to buy an unpopular player, and that's if you think you've seen something that most other players haven't." You bought Morison because you'd noticed a change in Norwich tactics that would benefit him. The differential was useful, obviously, but that wasn't the reason you bought him.

The thing is that buying decisons should be based on football-based criteria, not on what everyone else is doing - or in the case of differentials, what everyone else is not doing. (The exception to this is in FPL when you might want to beat price rises, but that's a different issue.)

I think he was referring to RVP being a differential in the Sun game as that's the only one where he would be a differential as when the window shuts you can't make any more transfers.Plus believe or not he wasn't that popular at the time of that particular window shutting as it was just before he started his scoring spree and everywhere you looked people were saying glass legs etc. so not only was he scoring averagely which in itself wasn't enough to put you off but when you add the injury risk factor whether or not time disproved it plus his price his appeal reduced drastically.Obviously now the differential is not having him though as you say differentials can end your season as much as giving the opportunity to gain.

So did anyone deliberately not captain RVP this week as a differential?

Did you miss the bit about form, fixtures and VFM?

not funny, adds up well with mclean and mignolet on the bench

First season playing the game and first I heard of this 'differential' chat was when I looked on this site a month or so ago.

Looks simple to me, don't look at anyone else's team and get the team you think will get you the most points and always give the armband to the player in for the most points each gameweek. The only instance I might not stick to that is if i'm chasing a specific player and I know the exact team he's fielding every gameweek, which I almost certainly don't know anyway.

All this talk of differentials and 'shadowing a leader's defensive players' is a load of nonsense to me, until someone can now convince me otherwise.

I'd the say the base definition of a differential is a player that hasn't been picked by the masses, or, maybe more importantly to you, your rivals.

I think it's a bit dim to think they are chosen purely on the basis that no one else has them, and you've already said that it's beneficial to identify players with good form/fixtures, especially ones that have slipped under other manager's radars. So really, you have answered your own questions.

The best players in this game are one step ahead of the pack, picking players before they score big, and before they become popular; differentials, if you will.

Looking at this ow so boring midfield that many chose recently with the likes of Dempsey, Valencia and Sessegnon, I am delighted I have gone the other way and took the risk of picking the differentials who go by the name of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Sigurdsson and McClean. Why? For the reason mention in my first sentence as well as that one of my main rivals in my mini-league had wildcarded before me and had none of these. Now, this week I have managed to catch up big time (with help of my captain RvP as well, that has to be said) and regained the #1 spot again for now. Luck? Perhaps, wait and see.

I never bother thinking about getting differentials, I just go with the players who I think will get the most points. If others also have them, that's their issue.

I seem to be doing ok playing the game this way.

It certainly would be dim, but since no one on this thread (including me) has claimed that differentials are chosen "purely" on that basis, I'm not sure who your argument is with.

Interestingly, I started this thread in the General Fantasy Football Notices forum, where it picked up 250 views in two days. I then moved it to the FPL forum, where I thought it might attract more interest, and it went up to 500 views in less than two hours. So I guess differentials are more of an issue in games where players are allowed more transfers.

its boring as f*ck just picking the bandwagons every week

You seem to be being very selective and misleading in your analysis of both the idea/purpose of a differential and the wording of peoples' posts on this thread. For example. in EARLY October Van Persie was UNarguably a differential!!! The bandwagon didn't really start until after the Chelsea game on the 29th October. Sure on the FPL site his ownership increased by around 5% from the start of GW7 up to when they went to Stamford Bridge at the start of GW10 but that hardly represents a 'band wagon'. The 'masses' didn't really flood to him until after the Chelsea game when his ownership increased by a further 25% over 3 GWs) That's potentially 25 points (50 as captain) gone adrift over 3 GWs waiting for proven form whilst he still had relatively low ownership. Although it may have been a bit of a punt (especially considering that Rooney and Aguero had much better form at the time), getting him in before his ownership rocketed made him more attractive for one obvious reason; if relatively few teams had him, any team taking an early plunge stands to make potentially large gains on all other teams that don't have him in their squad yet. In terms of his form in EARLY October he had scored a brace against Bolton 2 weeks before but was certainly not a 'safe' or nailed on bet. Like other fantasy managers at the time I simply thought he had started to look sharp again and had a hunch he was about to start a good run.
As it turned out, getting onto him BEFORE the band wagon really began in full force back in LATE October led to a huge advantage which helped in climbing the overal standings and especially in my private leagues. In fact, it is fair to say that it is largely sneaky early points like these that others didn't get that have helped me (and I'm sure a fair few other fantasy managers) stay relatively competitive in the ranks despite a few dry periods.

Another example is Demba Ba but perhaps a more poignant one (specifically in relation to the subject of proven form) is that of Van Der Vaart and his run around the same period. Of course, I do agree it is pretty unwise to load your team with differentials but it is worth ponting out that in VDV's case if you'd waited for his form to have been proven you'd have soon been rewarded with no goals or assists for 5 GWs on the bounce. I know these are somewhat rose-tinted, heindsight-laden examples but I'm not trying to say that every one will pay off by any stretch, I'm just pointing out that differential discussions are at least valid ones to entertain.

Afterall, this fantasy malarkey is no science and I for one would certainly find it a pretty boring forum if the only discussions were about Bale, Silva or any other mass-owned, proven, top scoring fantasy player.

I do agree that overloading your team with differentials is unwise, but I have to say that if someone in my league wildcarded in a load of players whose form was yet to be fully proven and then his/her team went on to have a flyer, I'd take my hat off to them (although admittedly if only to hide my gritted teeth ).

I also totally agree that (as a few other posters have already said) transferring in players only based on low ownership is absurd. However, that is exactly why people DO consider other factors, whether they are indeed form-related, based on fixtures or even simply hunches...

... hence all the discussions on the forum.

I for one am simply grateful for all the time people take to post their imput on players, especially those about which I would have very little knowledge save waiting for potentially weeks of points getting away before I've seen enough proof to get him in. And let's face it - a hunch can just have a few trials as a first choice sub and proven outright missed punts still only takes 1 transfer to ship back out again!!!

To but it briefly, it is for the simple reason that differentials can allow you to gain points on most other teams that not only makes them a bit of fun trying to spot but also a worthwhile thing to have a punt on every once in a while... not to mention have a chat about

the deferential game: rinse and repeat

^ What he said.

I think another point of interest that you alluded to is: How long does it take before a (good) differential become a bandwagon?

I'm guessing the CtC guys would have their own theories and such on this. For example, I bought in Zamora for GW24 and he did well, but for many consecutive games would he have to do this before he stops being a differential?

Also, what is the 'market limit' on bandwagons?

Personally I'd say he remains a differential as long as loads of people haven't jumped on him yet - ie "different"ial to other teams. Not sure that there is a limit really as it's quite subjective but personally I'd look first to how many people had him in my private leagues and then (maybe) the overall competition. Personally I'd say anyone below about 15-20% owneship is quite a differential although you have to take into account so called 'active' teams. Ie Van the man was probably very well owned at the start but whereas 'active' managers may have got him out whereas 'inactive' managers (and the huge number of make a team and never look again squads) could still have him in. As (sweeping generalisation alert) more active mangers generally do better I only really consider these teams in terms of firm competitors. Before VP started his monster run he may have still had a relatively high ownership but a lot of these teams were by then (another sweeping generlsation coming) somewhat reduntant in terms of the top end of the leagues. Thus I would still consider him a differential.

Lots of factors, lots of subectivity, loads of opinions and very little proof - gotta love this game - until you wildcard in a load of players that get injured in the next week that is

If 9 of you in a league have RVP and the other one has Rooney then he may think Rooney is his 'differential' but you would all benefit from your 'differential' of RVP when he got another hat trick.

Only a differential over 1 player in your league but a differential none the less.

In summary - buy the best team you can and don't worry about anybody else until the fat lady looks like she is starting her throat clearing exercises.

A differential is only good if you think he will score you points quickly as soon enough they become bandwagons, low ownership is irrelevant, I don't think anyone pays attention to that, its more a case of looking around your league and seeing where you can steal a march.

In my league no one around me had Sessengon or Dempsey for his hatrick, I did and I chipped away 30+ points on the leader, the following week most had one or the other.

Saying not to worry about other players teams is all well and good if you are not competitive because then what will be will be but if you are competitive then you have to try and out think your opponent regardless of ownership ie David Silva, I'm the only one in my top 6 that has him yet he's one of the highest owned players.

Trying to be one step ahead is part of the game and spotting the form early is why we play this game with so many transfers.

Nail and head. Spot on.

Absolutely, which is why I started the thread. I could have posted what White Tiger did (see post above), which sums it up nicely, but I doubt that would have provoked much of a debate. I also don't expect, or even want, everyone to agree with me, because that would be dull.

It would be interesting to see what proportion of players are influenced by the differential factor. So I've added a poll to the OP. It's a straight Yes/No - generally speaking, are you inclined to be inflenced by differentials or not?

Seems to me that this is maybe more of an issue than previously because the game this year has stagnated a bit. No weather disruption, negligible DGW action, RVP staying fit, other high-priced players inconsistency (and decent mid-price alternatives), the winter wildcard: these are factors that have combined to bring a cetain similarity to teams. There are even managers high-placed in my mini-leage who stopped playing before Xmas, but who are still right up there thanks to the efforts of a core group based around Vorm, R Taylor, Richards, Silva, Bale, Aguero and RVP. One guy who hasn't made a transfer since GW13 is still 3rd and scored 101pts last week. So I think the search for differentials is an expression of a desire to see things shaken up a bit. It'd all be more interesting, perhaps, if snow wiped a couple of weeks fixtures and RVP signed up with Kia Joorabchian, for example.

As for differentials, what about a weekly poll for "Best punt this GW at under 5% ownership" or something similar?

I'm in a league with 3 runaway leaders at the moment. All of them inside the top 1,000, while i was around the 20,000 mark.
I laid out all their teams side by side, looked at what players they all had, and thought, 'which of those lads do i have as well, that i reckon i could do without?'

I cut lads Vorm, BAE, Yakubu, Nani, who were in a couple, if not all, 3 teams above me, and got in lads like Sessegnon, and Dempsey, and gave myself a New-Sun goalkeeper pairing.

In 3 weeks, i took between 40 and 60 points out of all three leaders. (I blew my good work this week by not captaining RVP, but thats an aside.)

Getting Dempsey in when only 7% of people owned him (now, 16% own him); Thats differential. And was even moreso differential in my private league seing as none of the three owned him.
I could have gone for Silva instead of Dempsey. He's the better player obviously, but all three of them had him. Getting him in wouldn't have gained me any ground.

Here's a quote from 'Catching up on a Leader' where differentials were discussed:




As Rumple has no FPL link I don't know who he picked, but if I wanted the point demonstrated I couldn't have asked for a better week!
I've not voted on the poll, Billy, as I think the tactic is too specific to an individual's needs to be discussed ''generally''.

Primarily, imo, 'diffs' have their place in end-game, win-or-bust gambits in Private Leagues.
1) Neutralise your opponent's big guns by copying them.
2) Second-guess their (c) and match or gamble, depending on each gameweek's fixtures.
3) Do your research and gamble on a few diffs (from your opponents' team, not Overall % Ownership) showing good form and promising fixtures.


For the first 2/3rds of the season, though, I'm more concerned with playing the long game and don't consider diffs at all.
If I'm still struggling in the last 6-8 weeks I'll throw more and more points on short-term transfers in a do-or-die effort, and at that point diffs are essential if any ground is to be gained.

Bump (poll still active)