Can't see that happening if the rules state 0.1 a day, would be very confusing for the casual players, who haven't looked into things as deeply as we have, when someones price was suddenly 0.3 higher than the day before.


That's one of the reasons the original formula worked so well, every transfer over the magic figure in a single day was discounted so big rushes only affected the price by 0.1 - 0.2 and it would take a few consistent weekends to cause a notable rise.

The prices have risen!
As of 22/08 0137 GMT:

Player Teams selected (%) Net Transfers

Campbell 12% +29079
Mellberg 7% +28979
Bridge 8% +23741
Terry 49% +16900

Bowyer 5% +18785
Parker 10% +14240
Campo 4% +14389
Lampard 26% +12605
Ronaldo 10% +12355

Saha 9% +31292
Zamora 13% +23159

Notice that the price of Terry and Lampard rose even though they have a relatively higher % of teams that have them in their squads. Now that's puzzling because the price change of a player who is selected by more teams should be slower than that of a player who is in fewer teams.

I have two ideas why this may have happened:

1. The formula has changed (not based on net transfers / number of teams that have the player)
2. The price change mechanism is only activated yesterday

What do you think?

Players who didnt rise should be worth looking at so you can compare the fresholds that determine when they go up(i think) etc.

Time: around 3am (jesus didnt realise it was so late)

Df in/out %
Carvalho CH 7.0 11565/886 5%
Armstrong SU 3.5 6453/451 2%
Ferdinand MU 7.0 6260/3546 24%

Mf
Arteta EV 6.0 8346/858 8%
Tonge SU 4.5 6209/1595 11%
Essien CH 7.5 6080/615 4%

FW
Kanu PO 6.0 8150/533 2%
Shevchenko CH 12.0 7739/3747 20%
Johnson EV 8.5 6788/757 8%

Kenny 3.5 didn't rise!

Teams selected by (%) 13
Transfers in 11088
Transfers out 431

Players reduced in value are:

Mhyre -0.1
Teams selected by (%) 3
Transfers in 29
Transfers out 2096

Defenders Value Minus
Carragher LI 6.9 0.1
Chimbonda WI 5.4 0.1
Stalteri TH 5.4 0.1
Kishishev CA 4.4 0.1
Ramage NU 4.9 0.1
O'Brien PO 3.9 0.1
Finnan LI 7.4 0.1
Cole AR 6.9 0.1
Gardner TH 4.9 0.1
Boumsong NU 4.9 0.1
Gallas CH 7.4 0.1
Neill BR 4.9 0.1

Midfielders
Spring WA 5.4 0.1
Tal BW 4.9 0.1
Rommedahl CA 5.4 0.1
Riise LI 6.9 0.1
Pennant LI 7.4 0.1
Alonso LI 7.4 0.1
Van Der Meyde EVE 5.9 0.1
Malbranque FU 7.9 0.1
Milner NU 6.4 0.1
Garcia LI 8.4 0.1
McFadden EV 6.4 0.1

Strikers
Ashton WH 6.9 0.1
Nade SU 5.4 0.1
Corradi MC 7.4 0.1
Runstrom FU 5.9 0.1
John FU 6.4 0.1
Crouch LI 8.9 0.1
Rossi MU 7.4 0.1
Shipperley SU 5.4 0.1
Lua-Lua PO 6.4 0.1
Borgetti BW 5.9 0.1
Maccarone MI 6.4 0.1
Akinbiyi SU 5.9 0.1
Kuqi BR 6.4 0.1
Jeffers BR 5.9 0.1
Bellamy LI 9.9 0.1
Henderson WA 5.9 0.1
McBride FU 7.4 0.1
Luque NU 7.9 0.1
Vassell MC 7.4 0.1
Christie MI 5.4 0.1
Camara WI 7.4 0.1

An observation - players that have more than 12,000 absolute/net transfers rose in price. I shall now keep a closer eye on Kenny and Carvalho since they are the closest to 12k.

Kenny 11088/431 +10657 13%
Carvalho 11596/890 +10706 5%

Think what has been established from last year is that it would need 1% of all managers to transfer a player in for their to be a price increase. So this season you'd need 7,700 or so

Where as price decreases were controlled by what % of managers hold a player.

It obviously isn't the 1% rule at the moment as the thresheold is 12,000 which is 1.5% of 780k.

Maybe we are looking at a 1.5% rule or perhaps it is still 1% but the system is running a day behind i.e. doing the price increases based on Sunday nights net transfer in's / outs....

Think these figures are about right.

It would appear that it takes transfers that result in a reduction of over 5% of a players % of teams to shift the value down.

Name / Club / #Teams (a) / % Teams (start) / Net Transfers (b) / (b)/(a)
Defenders
Carragher LI 195160.8 25% 38917 19.94%
Chimbonda WI 156128.6 20% 13825 8.85%
Stalteri TH 39032.15 5% 3291 8.43%
Kishishev CA 70257.87 9% 6529 9.29%
O'Brien PO 15612.86 2% 965 6.18%
Midfielders
Spring WA 780.643 0.10% 228 29.21%
Rommedahl CA 15612.86 2% 1063 6.81%
Riise LI 39032.15 5% 7116 18.23%
Pennant LI 46838.58 6% 4536 9.68%
Alonso LI 85870.73 11% 7300 8.50%
Forwards
Ashton WH 31225.72 4% 4945 15.84%
John FU 23419.29 3% 1503 6.42%
Crouch LI 39032.15 5% 4679 11.99%
Rossi MU 7806.43 1% 415 5.32%
Lua-Lua PO 39032.15 5% 6397 16.39%
Borgetti BW 7806.43 1% 688 8.81%
Akinbiyi SU 7806.43 1% 451 5.78%
Kuqi BR 7806.43 1% 505 6.47%
Shipperley SU 7806.43 1% 539 6.90%

Can anyone find an exception to the 5% rule?

From my watchlist I have the following as boarderline
Someil 4.11%
Henry 4.29%
McCarthy 4.1%

I fon't know if it's too early in the morning for me but at the time that im doing this it shows in the most valuabe teams section that

ITALIA NUMBA 1 has a value of 101.1 along with several others!!!!!!

Thinking this a bit strange i looked through their team and this is their rises and falls in value at this time:

Robinson 0
Terry +0.1
Gray 0
Ferdinand 0
O'Shea 0
O'Neil 0
Gerrard 0
Johnson 0
Lampard +0.1
Bent 0
Davies 0
Crossley 0
Sommeil 0
Gallas -0.1

Grand total = 100.1m

Where in the hel did the other million come from or am i going insane, i've flicked through the other teams that have 1.1 and 1.0m increases and it appears to occur throughout. My question is............

WHAT THE HELL?????

From my GW1 team, Lampard, Ronaldo, Bridge & Sicknote all increased by 0.1.

I'm the same, i had 3 players that increased in value, but i'd still like to know just how i stated in my previous comment the top team in the league has a net value of 101.1m whereas in reality it should be 100.1m, a trait which is also found in the other teams in the top value table??????

Ah... thanks for enlightening me! I've also noticed that the 'Transfers In' information updates every half an hour. So you can refresh for the new figures every xx:01 and xx:31 (Think I got too much free time on my hands ).

The 'Transfers In' for Kenny and Carvalho are both very near to the 'threshold' of 12k which, as you stated, is approximately 1.5% of the 781k total participants. Hopefully we will be able to see price increases in the next hour or so to confirm our finding.

Time: 07:40 BST

Kenny 11581/444 +11137 14%
Carvalho 11879/937 +10942 5%

think that teams have made transfers already but these won't show until the next gameweek - where as team values have changed to reflect transfers. The teams that are 101.1 had at the start (which most don't) or have transferred in all 11 players that have gone up in value

but all the price increase happened over night... do you really think they will adjust kenny's price 'live' today?
surely the current transfer increases didn't cross the 1,5% thingy when we were sleeping.

did anyone get close to the time when they made the update btw?

This is most likely to be the possibility, which led me to think that when you use the Wildcard function, that GW's transfers won't show up in the Transfers (Gameweek/Overall) section in your Profile.

So the rules are:

Player's price increases 0.1m if net transfers in over last 24 hours >= +7700.
Player's price decreases 0.1m if net transfers out over last 24 hours >= 0.015*teams selected by.

Changes are made at night.

Is that right?

I first noted the increases at 02:37 BST, and the post before me that did not mention anything about any price increases was at 01:27 BST, so I presume it happened between those 2 times.

I'm currently monitoring the prices of Kenny and Carvalho to see whether the price increases are indeed 'live' or done in the wee hours of the morning after the end of the previous day.

Think we are currently looking at

Player's price increases 0.1m if net transfers in over last 24 hours >= 11,717 (1.5% of 781,184 Total Players).
Player's price decreases 0.1m if net transfers out over last 24 hours >= 0.05*teams selected by.

currently rooney is transfers out 18349 , transfers in 8621. The next hour or so should tell

prices change overnight - last night the prices changed at 2:37

This is all going over my head but, unless this has also changed, you will only see prices change in the early hours of the morning if the trigger is passed during normal hours.

Edit: Unless of course you are on the other side of the world - as a good few of the FISO members are!

How can you crack the code if it says this on the Help page

After the season starts player values may change by 0.1 a day based on activity in the transfer market. Both the formula used to calculate this change and the time of the change include variable factors and won't be revealed to game players.

Well DD. I reckon that those clever folks discussing this are getting very, very close to cracking it... and I think give them a few weeks of transfer activity and it will be just about sorted.

Haha... It's early morning over here in Singapore when it's dead at night over at the UK. Maybe that's why I posted the price increases here first.

Since I have noted that the 'Price Increase' updates every half hour, the 'Trigger Time' could have been 01:31, 02:01 or 02:31, which corresponds to 08:31, 09:01 or 09:31 over at my side. Think fellow forummers or I will be able to pinpoint the exact time when the prices changes will occur after today.

I'm probably the last person to have an opinion on this given my wrongly calculated and premature price increase prediction earlier in the thread. However, I think if you start focussing on 24 hours you run the risk of barking up the wrong tree on price change. As I understand it from ferg's earlier work on price increases it's 7,700 net transfers in since the player's price last changed or the start of the game if his price had remained unchanged.

So for example Saha could gain 3,700 net transfers in today and then 4,000 tomorrow and his price would increase then.

It's all a bit hazy now (blame the Laphroaig!), but I'm sure I checked after ferg's 01:27 post this morning (Tues, 22rd) which suggests either 02:00 or 02:30 (bst) as the time they are a' changing.

Dixie! O! Ye of little faith! We'll crack this baby if we haven't done so yet!
While we always knew price changes were dependant on variables (rises & falls are calculated differently, as are (i)s).
I will be very interested to see how much the 'time of change' varies! Especially now there's no government-imposed pub closing time in England now.
But, essentially, if we have the original stats and the final results we should be able to deduce the rest!

Btw, squealy's/ferg's point is, I believe, valid:

Consequently, it would help us immensely if folks could start recording players' '% of Teams Bought By' and their Transfers In/ Transfers Out stats on a daily basis for the next few days.

I'm away until Sunday now, but cordially suggest members volunteer to record one or two specific team's stats (and declare which teams here!).

This could be accomplished in a minute by: logging on > Fantasy Stats, then select 'your team' and 'Teams Selected By' under Player Stats.
Then just copy and paste into a Notepad note or other before posting here.
Repeat twice for 'Transfers In' and 'Transfers Out'.
Let us know the time the stats were recorded, of course.

Anyone game?

I wasn't meaning to put a downer on proceedings matey

I just think that if they say that there are variables in how they do it (and I am presuming this is some kind of random element) then it will nearly impossible to come up with a definitive answer.

Good luck any way chaps.

Richie

Is that all we have to do? I thought this lark was too complicated for me . Do you want any other stats recorded?

Dixie - nae torr a borr, mate!
I think the issue is whether the variables are truly "random" or not. If not ..... If so ......

M-boy: Yup, I think that's all. The more teams we can cover the better, but stats should be recorded as close to the 'Change' as possible - say 01:25 BST. That's the rub for us Euros, unless you're a night bird.

But if you're game, please be the first and say you'll cover a couple of teams - and say which ones!