I had a suspicion that something like this would happen. As I had no evidence for it, I kept fairly quiet. And I saved my transfer(s).

Any idea on the lottery numbers for this week?

Im currently monitoring the transfers of 45 players, when price changes do happen it should be fairly easy to dteermine the formula, as long as it isnt too complex!

Probably just haven't activated the market yet to give everyone an early amnesty. I still think it will work the same way as last year once it begins as it was a really nice system.

I MAY be imagining this but did I read somewhere that values change over a 4 week period as opposed to 2 weeks last season?

I bet the organisers of the FAP game are p***ing themselves laughing at this thread!!!

I have a question about the '% Teams Selected By' stat.

At kick-off, GW1 we logged the Total Number of Teams as 737233.

Given the fact that at this time M. Taylor was selected by 11% we can deduce that 81095.63 bods had him.

But new managers are joining throughout the season - and in sufficiently significant numbers to affect our study.

Are we certain that the '% Teams Selected By' stat remains based on the original starting number, or does it vary throughout the season as manager numbers increases?.

In the hope it helps:

As of (11:25) - 11:30 am, Sat. 19th August:

Total Number of players (732 295) - 737 233 .

Teams Selected By:

Arca - 2%
Arteta - 7%
Benayoun - 6%
Bridge - 4%
Brown - 3%
Chambers - 1%
Convey - 2%
Djourou - 1%
Doyley - 2%
Gabbidon - 5%
Henry - 39%
Jagielka - 2%
G. Johnson - 1%
Morrisson - 2%
O'Shea - 10%
Parker - 8%
Reyes - 1%
Richards - 2%
Ronaldo - 8%
Rooney - 19%
Rosicky - 6%
Saha - 3%
Shorey - 0%
Stefanovic - 20%
M. Taylor - 11%
Van Persie - 3%

As I wasn't at home, that's all I could get. Anyone got any to add to the pool?

Yeah Flyman, ive got loads more but am in a hurry to go out so will post it tomorrow.

Get this though......

I emailed FPL with this....

Hi there,

I know that you cannot reveal the formula for player price changes but could you let me kow if you have changed the formula this year?

Thanks in advance

Steven

They replied....

You already know the answer!

We can't say, sorry

Intriguing, maybe theyve been looking at the thread, if so

I don't think you can because 10.5 to 11.9% may actually have him, we don't know if they round up or down. Your figure is just a nice approximation.


My guess is that particular stat is based on the total number in the game rather than just those that started. That's based on the fact that that number (last season anyway) changed throughout the day, not just at deadlines.

You could probably work it out for certain if you had a couple of transfer readings around the time it changed, should have been easy enough to do as the market was moving fast.

classic, reg
and that is why i enjoy this site
fantastic

ferg wrote:

No, no, ferg! I sincerely believe 0.63 of a manager has him.
But, of course I accept your point about the parameters.

Any chance of Jamie Carraghers price dropping this week?, 21% of teams have him and hes been dropped a net ~34,000 times. Looking to do a like for like swap with Rio to make a few $$ when Carra fit again (before GW i hope)

He was in 26% of teams to begin with, 18% of those that had him have sold.

If the formula is the same as last season then it's possible 20-30% would cause a drop so I'd guess it's realistic at 38,000 net transfers out, probable at 47,900 certain at 57,500.

Up to you how much you trust the figures (nothings happened so far) or push the boundaries.

Here's my theory:

The formula is approximately the same as last season, BUT the price changes will only kick in every GW deadline.

This means people don't have to rush to do transfers early in the week, and avoids the annoyance of coming back on a Saturday morning to find you can no longer afford your planned transfer.

It also might tie in with the new "Transfers in/out (Gameweek)" stats on the site?

Therefore, if I'm correct, players may rise by more than 0.1 at a time - say the magic figure is 7000, then Mellberg and Campbell would go up by 0.4 (28,000 transfers each), Bridge by 0.3 (22,000 xfers) etc.

Although they are bound to get many more transfers before tomorrow night, so I hope the magic number is much bigger than 7000 or we could have players jumping by 1m!

Maybe they can increase 0.7 in a week long GW? (I.e possible rise of 0.4 in before GW2)

----------

Edit , your email to pl.com is top, their reply is class

i think you answered this but just to clarify, you expect the new prices to be reflected at the opening of GW3 - ie 19h31 tomorrow evening ?

No price rises as of 00:55. I've stayed up later than usual tonight because I was doing some work .

Nice one, nash, you've just reminded me why I'm still up.

Must .... record ....... statszzzzz ..... zzzzz .....zzzz...... zzzzz, etc.

Nothing as yet at 01:06?

Why do u think they will change this morning? As they havnt changed over the last 2 nights I would have thought they would change at the gameweek deadline.

Can't see that happening if the rules state 0.1 a day, would be very confusing for the casual players, who haven't looked into things as deeply as we have, when someones price was suddenly 0.3 higher than the day before.


That's one of the reasons the original formula worked so well, every transfer over the magic figure in a single day was discounted so big rushes only affected the price by 0.1 - 0.2 and it would take a few consistent weekends to cause a notable rise.

The prices have risen!
As of 22/08 0137 GMT:

Player Teams selected (%) Net Transfers

Campbell 12% +29079
Mellberg 7% +28979
Bridge 8% +23741
Terry 49% +16900

Bowyer 5% +18785
Parker 10% +14240
Campo 4% +14389
Lampard 26% +12605
Ronaldo 10% +12355

Saha 9% +31292
Zamora 13% +23159

Notice that the price of Terry and Lampard rose even though they have a relatively higher % of teams that have them in their squads. Now that's puzzling because the price change of a player who is selected by more teams should be slower than that of a player who is in fewer teams.

I have two ideas why this may have happened:

1. The formula has changed (not based on net transfers / number of teams that have the player)
2. The price change mechanism is only activated yesterday

What do you think?

Players who didnt rise should be worth looking at so you can compare the fresholds that determine when they go up(i think) etc.

Time: around 3am (jesus didnt realise it was so late)

Df in/out %
Carvalho CH 7.0 11565/886 5%
Armstrong SU 3.5 6453/451 2%
Ferdinand MU 7.0 6260/3546 24%

Mf
Arteta EV 6.0 8346/858 8%
Tonge SU 4.5 6209/1595 11%
Essien CH 7.5 6080/615 4%

FW
Kanu PO 6.0 8150/533 2%
Shevchenko CH 12.0 7739/3747 20%
Johnson EV 8.5 6788/757 8%

Kenny 3.5 didn't rise!

Teams selected by (%) 13
Transfers in 11088
Transfers out 431

Players reduced in value are:

Mhyre -0.1
Teams selected by (%) 3
Transfers in 29
Transfers out 2096

Defenders Value Minus
Carragher LI 6.9 0.1
Chimbonda WI 5.4 0.1
Stalteri TH 5.4 0.1
Kishishev CA 4.4 0.1
Ramage NU 4.9 0.1
O'Brien PO 3.9 0.1
Finnan LI 7.4 0.1
Cole AR 6.9 0.1
Gardner TH 4.9 0.1
Boumsong NU 4.9 0.1
Gallas CH 7.4 0.1
Neill BR 4.9 0.1

Midfielders
Spring WA 5.4 0.1
Tal BW 4.9 0.1
Rommedahl CA 5.4 0.1
Riise LI 6.9 0.1
Pennant LI 7.4 0.1
Alonso LI 7.4 0.1
Van Der Meyde EVE 5.9 0.1
Malbranque FU 7.9 0.1
Milner NU 6.4 0.1
Garcia LI 8.4 0.1
McFadden EV 6.4 0.1

Strikers
Ashton WH 6.9 0.1
Nade SU 5.4 0.1
Corradi MC 7.4 0.1
Runstrom FU 5.9 0.1
John FU 6.4 0.1
Crouch LI 8.9 0.1
Rossi MU 7.4 0.1
Shipperley SU 5.4 0.1
Lua-Lua PO 6.4 0.1
Borgetti BW 5.9 0.1
Maccarone MI 6.4 0.1
Akinbiyi SU 5.9 0.1
Kuqi BR 6.4 0.1
Jeffers BR 5.9 0.1
Bellamy LI 9.9 0.1
Henderson WA 5.9 0.1
McBride FU 7.4 0.1
Luque NU 7.9 0.1
Vassell MC 7.4 0.1
Christie MI 5.4 0.1
Camara WI 7.4 0.1

An observation - players that have more than 12,000 absolute/net transfers rose in price. I shall now keep a closer eye on Kenny and Carvalho since they are the closest to 12k.

Kenny 11088/431 +10657 13%
Carvalho 11596/890 +10706 5%

Think what has been established from last year is that it would need 1% of all managers to transfer a player in for their to be a price increase. So this season you'd need 7,700 or so

Where as price decreases were controlled by what % of managers hold a player.

It obviously isn't the 1% rule at the moment as the thresheold is 12,000 which is 1.5% of 780k.

Maybe we are looking at a 1.5% rule or perhaps it is still 1% but the system is running a day behind i.e. doing the price increases based on Sunday nights net transfer in's / outs....

Think these figures are about right.

It would appear that it takes transfers that result in a reduction of over 5% of a players % of teams to shift the value down.

Name / Club / #Teams (a) / % Teams (start) / Net Transfers (b) / (b)/(a)
Defenders
Carragher LI 195160.8 25% 38917 19.94%
Chimbonda WI 156128.6 20% 13825 8.85%
Stalteri TH 39032.15 5% 3291 8.43%
Kishishev CA 70257.87 9% 6529 9.29%
O'Brien PO 15612.86 2% 965 6.18%
Midfielders
Spring WA 780.643 0.10% 228 29.21%
Rommedahl CA 15612.86 2% 1063 6.81%
Riise LI 39032.15 5% 7116 18.23%
Pennant LI 46838.58 6% 4536 9.68%
Alonso LI 85870.73 11% 7300 8.50%
Forwards
Ashton WH 31225.72 4% 4945 15.84%
John FU 23419.29 3% 1503 6.42%
Crouch LI 39032.15 5% 4679 11.99%
Rossi MU 7806.43 1% 415 5.32%
Lua-Lua PO 39032.15 5% 6397 16.39%
Borgetti BW 7806.43 1% 688 8.81%
Akinbiyi SU 7806.43 1% 451 5.78%
Kuqi BR 7806.43 1% 505 6.47%
Shipperley SU 7806.43 1% 539 6.90%

Can anyone find an exception to the 5% rule?

From my watchlist I have the following as boarderline
Someil 4.11%
Henry 4.29%
McCarthy 4.1%

I fon't know if it's too early in the morning for me but at the time that im doing this it shows in the most valuabe teams section that

ITALIA NUMBA 1 has a value of 101.1 along with several others!!!!!!

Thinking this a bit strange i looked through their team and this is their rises and falls in value at this time:

Robinson 0
Terry +0.1
Gray 0
Ferdinand 0
O'Shea 0
O'Neil 0
Gerrard 0
Johnson 0
Lampard +0.1
Bent 0
Davies 0
Crossley 0
Sommeil 0
Gallas -0.1

Grand total = 100.1m

Where in the hel did the other million come from or am i going insane, i've flicked through the other teams that have 1.1 and 1.0m increases and it appears to occur throughout. My question is............

WHAT THE HELL?????