This is most likely to be the possibility, which led me to think that when you use the Wildcard function, that GW's transfers won't show up in the Transfers (Gameweek/Overall) section in your Profile.

So the rules are:

Player's price increases 0.1m if net transfers in over last 24 hours >= +7700.
Player's price decreases 0.1m if net transfers out over last 24 hours >= 0.015*teams selected by.

Changes are made at night.

Is that right?

I first noted the increases at 02:37 BST, and the post before me that did not mention anything about any price increases was at 01:27 BST, so I presume it happened between those 2 times.

I'm currently monitoring the prices of Kenny and Carvalho to see whether the price increases are indeed 'live' or done in the wee hours of the morning after the end of the previous day.

Think we are currently looking at

Player's price increases 0.1m if net transfers in over last 24 hours >= 11,717 (1.5% of 781,184 Total Players).
Player's price decreases 0.1m if net transfers out over last 24 hours >= 0.05*teams selected by.

currently rooney is transfers out 18349 , transfers in 8621. The next hour or so should tell

prices change overnight - last night the prices changed at 2:37

This is all going over my head but, unless this has also changed, you will only see prices change in the early hours of the morning if the trigger is passed during normal hours.

Edit: Unless of course you are on the other side of the world - as a good few of the FISO members are!

How can you crack the code if it says this on the Help page

After the season starts player values may change by 0.1 a day based on activity in the transfer market. Both the formula used to calculate this change and the time of the change include variable factors and won't be revealed to game players.

Well DD. I reckon that those clever folks discussing this are getting very, very close to cracking it... and I think give them a few weeks of transfer activity and it will be just about sorted.

Haha... It's early morning over here in Singapore when it's dead at night over at the UK. Maybe that's why I posted the price increases here first.

Since I have noted that the 'Price Increase' updates every half hour, the 'Trigger Time' could have been 01:31, 02:01 or 02:31, which corresponds to 08:31, 09:01 or 09:31 over at my side. Think fellow forummers or I will be able to pinpoint the exact time when the prices changes will occur after today.

I'm probably the last person to have an opinion on this given my wrongly calculated and premature price increase prediction earlier in the thread. However, I think if you start focussing on 24 hours you run the risk of barking up the wrong tree on price change. As I understand it from ferg's earlier work on price increases it's 7,700 net transfers in since the player's price last changed or the start of the game if his price had remained unchanged.

So for example Saha could gain 3,700 net transfers in today and then 4,000 tomorrow and his price would increase then.

It's all a bit hazy now (blame the Laphroaig!), but I'm sure I checked after ferg's 01:27 post this morning (Tues, 22rd) which suggests either 02:00 or 02:30 (bst) as the time they are a' changing.

Dixie! O! Ye of little faith! We'll crack this baby if we haven't done so yet!
While we always knew price changes were dependant on variables (rises & falls are calculated differently, as are (i)s).
I will be very interested to see how much the 'time of change' varies! Especially now there's no government-imposed pub closing time in England now.
But, essentially, if we have the original stats and the final results we should be able to deduce the rest!

Btw, squealy's/ferg's point is, I believe, valid:

Consequently, it would help us immensely if folks could start recording players' '% of Teams Bought By' and their Transfers In/ Transfers Out stats on a daily basis for the next few days.

I'm away until Sunday now, but cordially suggest members volunteer to record one or two specific team's stats (and declare which teams here!).

This could be accomplished in a minute by: logging on > Fantasy Stats, then select 'your team' and 'Teams Selected By' under Player Stats.
Then just copy and paste into a Notepad note or other before posting here.
Repeat twice for 'Transfers In' and 'Transfers Out'.
Let us know the time the stats were recorded, of course.

Anyone game?

I wasn't meaning to put a downer on proceedings matey

I just think that if they say that there are variables in how they do it (and I am presuming this is some kind of random element) then it will nearly impossible to come up with a definitive answer.

Good luck any way chaps.

Richie

Is that all we have to do? I thought this lark was too complicated for me . Do you want any other stats recorded?

Dixie - nae torr a borr, mate!
I think the issue is whether the variables are truly "random" or not. If not ..... If so ......

M-boy: Yup, I think that's all. The more teams we can cover the better, but stats should be recorded as close to the 'Change' as possible - say 01:25 BST. That's the rub for us Euros, unless you're a night bird.

But if you're game, please be the first and say you'll cover a couple of teams - and say which ones!

Please refer to the updated article at http://www.fantasyfootballuk.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=12339

Hi, I have taken the liberty of presenting what we are doing here in an easy-to-understand article explaining how price changes work. Phrases in italics indicate that more research is required to confirm the statement. So, once they are proven, we can remove the italics.

Feel free to add in new rules as you deem fit as I don't profess to know everything about the topic and may have left out some points.

So I proudly present,

The FISO Law of Price Change

Definition:

Net Transfers In (NTI) = Transfers In - Transfers Out
Net Transfers Out (NTO) = Transfers Out - Transfers In

Assumptions:

1. Price changes occur between 02:15 - 02:31 BST everyday. This marks the start of a new day.
2. The price of a player will not change by more than 0.1 in a day.

Price Increase:

1. The NTI for a player need to exceed a certain threshold before his price will rise. The current figure we are looking at is 1.5% of the number of players at the start of the season.

2. If the NTI is smaller than or equal to the threshold at the time of the price change, the figure is brought forward to the new day.

3. If the NTI is greater than the threshold, his price will rise, then the NTI is reset to zero and recounted for the new day.

For example:

Player X
Assuming 770,000 players at the start of the season.
Threshold for price increase = 11,550 (1.5% of 770,000)

If the NTI = 15,000, his price will rise by 0.1 and his NTI will be reset to 0 for the new day. Therefore, he will need to get more than 11,550 transfers in for the new day before his price will rise again.

If the NTI = 10,000, his price will remain unchanged and will rise if he gets more than 1,550 transfers in for the new day.

Price Drop:

1. The NTO for a player need to exceed a certain threshold before his price will drop. The current figure we are looking at is 5% of the number of teams that have the player at the start of the new day.

2. If the NTO is smaller than or equal to the threshold at the time of the price change, the figure is brought forward to the new day.

3. If the NTO is greater than the threshold, his price will drop, then the NTO is reset to zero and recounted for the new day.

For example:

Player Y
Assuming 780,000 players at the start of the new day.
Teams selected by = 10% = 78,000 (10% of 780,000)
Threshold for price drop = 3,900 (5% of 78,000)

If the NTO = 5,000, his price will drop by 0.1 and his NTO will be reset to 0 for the new day. Therefore, he will need to get more than 3,900 transfers out for the new day before his price will drop again.

If the NTO = 3,000, his price will remain unchanged and will drop if he gets more than 900 transfers out for the new day.

Edit: Corrected the threshold definition.
Edit: Updated with new confirmations

Yes, this is exactly what we need. We need fellow forummers to record and post the above information as close to the 'Trigger Time' as possible, meaning 01:31-02:00, and 02:01-02:30 as we have narrowed the time to be 02:01 or 02:31 and the numbers are updated in half hours.

I will be taking note of players with Net Transfers In values very close to the threshold, but I cannot guarantee to be in front of the PC at that time, so I need the help of fellow forummers. But I will be glad to analyze the figures and help break the code soon!

good job malefice , keep it up

Ah, I knew there was a catch. Sorry, I need my beauty sleep.

Would this survice, it's easier for me to do as an image. taken at 11.59am for west ham.

I'd love to assist but:

a) I can't stay up until that time and get up for work at 7.30am at my age.
b) I'll probably be in a tent in Derbyshire over the Bank Hols - weather and laziness permitting.

whuuf, how do you get to those team pages on the Prem League site? I've never seen the data laid out as handily as that before.

That's absolutely perfect, whuff! You even included the time!

Can you give a 'site map' to where you found that page? Or post a link?

Thanks.

Flyman (still packing).

I'm afraid there is no direct link. I took screen grabs of the three pages then comped them together in photoshop. I might have enough time in the evenings to do another team as well. Let me know if there is a particular team you want me to grab.

Correct me if I am wrong whuuf... but you must be a fellow Apple Mac user to have such nicely renedered type in your browser

Last season price increases were caused by a fixed number of transfers in since the last price change for each player, as ferg successfully proved by predicting 10 out of ten price increases one day. This figure was 1% of the number of players in the game at the beginning if I recall correctly.

Unless they've drastically changed that system there may be some confusion to the figures being caused by the fact that Prem League only seemed to enable the price change system last night. Hopefully it'll be possible to get a clearer picture now the price change mechanism has been switched on. Assuming of course they don't switch it off again for an unknown period.

No. At the beginning of the season, FPL calculates a threshold. This threshold is 1% of the total number of players at season start. This season that's about 7700. That's the threshold that applies to ALL players when calculating price increases, regardless of how many people have him.

Thus, when a player gets +7700 net transfers in, his price goes up during the night.

I think squealy's right and there's a simple explanation.

The system wasn't turned on until Monday so any discrepancy between last year's formula - http://www.fantasyfootballuk.co.uk/view ... hp?t=11832 and this is explained by all the unnaccounted for transfers that occured over the weekend.

It's also quite sneaky as all the data I collected when the game started is now less accurate and the market may actually be based on the number of managers and teams (%) from readings taken on Monday not Saturday, which I guess no one has?

I wish I could help you there ferg but I can't, sorry.

It would be a pain in the bum if someone has to try and work it out exactly again like you did last season if I recall correctly.

I hope this is a simplified summary of all the above, is there anything wrong in the following as far as we know?

Player's price increases 0.1m if net transfers in since last price change > 11,500 (approx).
Player's price decreases 0.1m if net transfers out since last price change > 5% of teams selected by.
Changes activated daily at around 2am BST.


Great work everybody!

Out of interest reds363, where are you getting the 11,500 figure from?