Hmm, N'Gog dropped last night, yet at 10pm was only 46.7% of the way there. Anyone know why?

Hi Guys,

I have added all the FAQs together in one place, as it'll be easier to sticky if everyone likes this. Please can you read through and let me know if I have made any glaring mistakes or if there are any commonly asked questions you think I'm missing. I don't want to get too specific as I think this post is too quiet at the best of times and think it's important there is still a nice flow of conversation happening here as well.

Big thanks to reds363 and flyman, whose previous work I've pretty much plagiarised to get the info below. If there are changes you'd like to make/add please send me a PM. All congratulatory words can be posted here

FAQs
PRICE RISES

Q: Hi, I’m kind of new to this Crack the Code site. How does it work?
A: Crack the Code, known as CTC, is a site that predicts which players will either increase or decrease in value based on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL). It has been developed by Diamondplus who tries to work out the formula that the FPL uses in order to determine these increases & decreases.

Q: Interesting, so when do these price increases/decreases happen?
A: We’re not 100% sure but it is sometime between 00.30 and 03.30 every day.

Q: Does that mean a player can only increase/decrease once in day?
A: Exactly, they can’t increase/decrease more than £0.1m in one day. They can however increase/decrease every day in a week, but I’ll cover that shortly.

Q: And how often does CTC get updated?
A: This one we are sure of! It’s updated at 09:00, 13:00, 16:00, 18:00, 19:00, 20:00, 22:00 every day.

Q: Alright, so I’m looking at the CTC page for rises, what does everything mean?
A: Let’s start from the right hand side. You’ll see Target NTI. NTI stands for Net Transfers In. This number is calculated by taking all the teams that buy a player and subtracting the number of teams that sell a player. In order for a player to increase in value, they need to hit the NTI Target.

Q: So how do you know what the NTI target is meant to be?
A: Truthfully we don’t. It’s a bit of a moving target as FPL don’t let us know but as the season continues and we see more players increase in value, we get a better idea of what an NTI target is meant to be. This is due to being able to see what player’s NTIs were when they increased and therefore can speculate with more accuracy. The swing can be approx 3% either direction.

Q: And how do you know how many teams have actually bought/sold a player?
A: That information is actually found on the FPL site – just not everyone knows about it. If you click on the transfers tab on FPL, on the right you’ll see that it is defaulted at Score (Total). Click on that tab and go down and you’ll see transfers in, transfers out, transfers in (Gameweek), transfers out (Gameweek).

Q: Wow, never knew that
A: Glad I could teach you something....

Q: So going back to the CTC, if a player hits their NTI target they automatically increase in value?
A: Without confusing you right now, yes that is correct. There are some situations this doesn’t happen but I’ll cover them later as they are few and far between. In general though, yes they do increase in value.

Q: So looking at CTC, I can see a player’s NTI Target. I presume the NTI is what they are currently on and NTI (Today) shows me what increase/decrease they’ve had today?
A: Spot on

Q: So if a player’s NTI target is 32,500 and they have an NTI of 36,500 when the price increase occurs, do 4000 NTI roll over for their next target?
A: Unfortunately not, no. When a player hits their target and the price increase happens, their NTI total get reset back to zero. This includes all additional NTIs above the target. They just get lost into the ether.

Q: You mentioned above that a player can increase more than once in a week. Does the NTI target just get reset as well?
A: This is where it differs. If a player increases in value because they hit their NTI target, then in order for them to increase again in the same GameWeek (GW) the NTI target gets doubled. If they happen to hit that NTI target, in order for them to get a third increase, their NTI target gets trebled. You with me?

Q: Think so, but can you show me some numbers to make it clearer?
A: Of course. So if the NTI target is 32,500, and the player hits this in a GW, remember their NTI total gets reset back to zero. If they are to increase again in the same GW, their NTI target is now 65,000 (32,500 x 2). If they manage to hit that increase again in the same GW, then their NTI target becomes 97,500 (32,500 x 3) and so on. Remember, each time they hit the NTI target in the same GW, they NTI total is reset to zero.

Q: So how many times can a player actually increase?
A: In truth, there are enough teams that a player can increase every day of a GW but this is highly unlikely. Players have managed to rise 3 times in the same week.

Q: What happens to that player’s NTI target at the end of the GW?
A: The NTI target gets brought back down to the original 1st level, in this case 32,500, at the end of a GW.

Q: But let’s say a player has hit their first NTI target and now are trying to hit 65,000 for NTI target 2. Let’s say the NTI total is 45,000 at the end of the GW, do they also get lost into the ether?
A: No – this is where it’s a bit different. In fact, end of GW NTI totals, get rolled over. The only time NTI totals get lost is on the night of an increase.

Q: So if I’m getting this right, if 45,000 NTI total gets rolled on to the next GW and the NTI target is reset to 32,500 then the first night they’ll have an automatic increase?
A: That is correct

Q: But the additional 12,500 (45,000 minus 32,500) will be lost when that increase happens?
A: That’s perfect. Do you want my job??


PRICE DROPS

Q: No, not really but I do want to understand how player’s prices dropping works?
A: Whereas price increases had to do with NTIs, price decreases have got to do with NTOs (Net Transfers Out). Each player has an NTO Threshold and when they reach this, their price drops.

Q: Is the NTO Threshold the same for each player?
A: The formula is the same but the actual NTO number is different. The way you work out (formula) a player’s NTO Threshold, is to calculate what approximately 10% of their actual ownership number is. Hitting this number causes the price drop.

Q: Ownership number? How do I find out what that is?
A: Firstly, looking back at the FPL site, if you go to transfer page and look at each individual player, you’ll see the (i) icon to the left of their name. If you click on that, you’ll see a small window pop up. In that window you can see the % of “Teams Selected By”.

Q: That gives me a % but how do I know how many teams are in the league?
A: Now go back to “My Team” on the FPL site. On the right hand side you’ll see “Points/Rankings”. Under that you will see “Total Players”. To prevent confusion I’m going to refer to them as Total Teams. Therefore if there are 2 million total teams and you know a player is owned by 20% of teams, then you know that player is owned by.....

Q: 400,000 teams.
A: Correct. And if their NTO Threshold to drop in price is approx. 10% of that .....?

Q: Then they’ll need 40,000 players to sell them for their price to fall.
A: Spot on!

Q: Why do you say it’s approximately 10%?
A: Similar to price increases, we don’t know the exact formula that FPL uses to decide on price decreases but our research shows it’s approximately 10%.

Q: So how does it work if a player has already reduced in price once in a week? Can they fall again?
A: A couple of things to mention here. Firstly, again, exactly like price increases, when a player’s price drops, any additional NTOs get lost into the ether and their NTO Threshold gets reset back to zero. Secondly, once a player reduces once in a GW, in order for them to reduce again in the same GW their NTO Threshold is double the original one. For a third decrease in the same GW, the NTO Threshold is 3 times the original and this goes on and on. However, once the GW is over, any outstanding NTOs are carried over to the next GW and the NTO Threshold is reset using the same formula above.

Q: So are there any times when the NTO Threshold can be different from how you’ve explained it above?
A: Yes – sorry, I know this gets a bit complicated but work with me on this.
1) When a player’s value is higher than their season-beginning value, then in order for them to have a price decrease, instead of an NTO Threshold, they just need to hit the negative NTI Threshold instead, if this is smaller than the 10% of manager’s that own him.

Q: You say what???
A: Take Drogba, let’s say his last price increase was an NTI Target of 31,000. His value is now above his season-beginning value. He now loses form and people want to sell him. His “Teams Selected By” number is 25%. On a game with 2 million teams he is owned by 500,000 teams. 10% of that would be 50,000 and that should be his NTO Threshold to drop. BUT, because he has risen already in the game, his NTO is now the 31,000 (original NTI target) as this is lower than the 10%.

Q: And any other differences on NTO Threshold?
A: 2) Any player who has less than 1% “Teams Selected By” work on a different scale. Unfortunately we’re not sure how this is calculated. Also worth noting that there is a slight margin in error for all NTO Thresholds as the “Teams Selected By” on the FPL site is rounded to the nearest decimal, therefore the NTO Threshold will not be completely accurate.

Q: So that’s it? I’m ready to use CTC?
A: Actually no. There are a couple of other things you should be aware of such as Flagging & Protection of players.

FLAGGING & PROTECTION OF PLAYERS

Q: Flagging & Protection of Players? Explain away….
A: When a player is either injured, doubtful, suspended or ineligible then the (i) next to their name on FPL will be flagged red or yellow.

Q: Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops.

Q: Why is that?
A: The general thinking here is that when a player is injured or suspended, naturally a lot of people will want to sell that player. In order to ensure their price doesn’t fall dramatically, the Threshold is increased.

Q: So if a player’s NTO Threshold was 40,000, it’s now going to be 2.5 times greater than that when they are flagged – so 100,000?
A: Correct

Q: But their NTI target for increase doesn’t change?
A: Again correct

Q: Is it likely a player will increase in value or even people buying him in if they are flagged?
A: It could be. Let’s say a player got flagged red as they were being suspended for 1 game for receiving 5 yellow cards. This might not put people off from keeping this player, if they are in the knowledge that he will be back next game. Plus, if this player is already on a rise, there is no reason that more teams won’t buy him and bench him for one week.

Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there.

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.

Q: So anything else I should know?
A: It’s important to remember that CTC will never be 100% accurate. It takes a lot of dedication from people who, in their spare time, are analysing the information we can gather from price rises and decreases and trying to accurately predict the formulas. Ultimately though, FPL will never reveal their formulas and therefore the CTC team will always be half a step behind. It’s bit like a game of cat and mouse. Sometimes we manage to paw the mouse and sometimes it manages to go left, when we’re still chasing right.

So if you notice something is wrong (or went wrong) try and help us understand why a player increased/decreased when we were not expecting him to or why a player DIDN’T increase/decrease when we were expecting it!

Q: Thanks for all the help
A: No problem at all

Q: So now I’m ready to use CTC?
A: You were always ready to use CTC, you just never knew it…….

Get rid of stuff like this, imo.

I think thats quite funny little bit.

Excellent piece of work stuboy, kudos.

Congratulations, stuboy, I think it's excellent. I like the informal approach very much, too.
Many thanks for putting the time in to this, it's a great addition to the site.

Agreed,excellent work stuboy and well worth the effort putting it together.

The answers to most FPL players price Q's should be found therein. The challenge will continue to be to get them to read it.

Most will, some won't, as they can't be bothered. We'll just have to keep directing them to your Q & A's when they pose Q's which are covered therein.

Thanks guys - really appreciate the feedback and happy to see that most people like the FAQ section. Like grob says, now we just need to make people actually read it!!

Maybe one of my questions should have been:
Q: Why does no-one answer my questions?
A: Because you've not read the FAQ section yet

boom boom

On a different note, did anyone see that if Cech's NTI total was correct at the time of increase last night, then he increased with an NTI of just 26,514. If this is now around the NTI target then we should definitely see Carroll, Chamakh, Carson & Richards increase in price tonight with Al-Muhammadi and Gardener not too far behind!

This is the all time low for the season as far as I can tell. reds363, can you confirm this and are you able to ammend CTC?

It will be interesting to see what happens to those you've highlighted tonight stuboy.

I hadn't noticed that myself but I did notice(could hardly help not doing so)that Harewood finally dropped last night !
Never before in the history of FPL can any player have fought with such tenacity to avoid a drop against such odds as Harewood did - I salute you Mr Harewood

Looking at today's NTIs compared to current NTI, some of the players you mention should have gone up last night as well if that were the threshold.

I'm not sure if the nti's on the CtC Price Change sheet are those at the time of the price changes or at the last CtC update at 10pm ?
Al-Muhammadi,whose wish to be known as Elmohamady (to stop people calling him "mummy" ?) have been recognised by FPL, is unlikely to be one of the risers this GW,as he's been showing negative nti on a daily basis this week,presumably in anticipation of drawing a blank against the mighty Liverpool at Anfield ?

I don't have the technology to prove this but having stayed awake for the price changes at 2am (3am Amsterdam) way too many times, I can accurately confirm the NTI total on CTC are at the time for price changes, not the 10am totals - it also defeats the purpose of CTC as it'll need to know the exact number the price change happened in order to more accurately predict the current NTI Threshold.

As for Elmohamady, apologies grob, I just noticed his negative NTI, so you're right, he won't increase. Good spot.

However, Vidic is very much in the zone now...

Hey Woolster - got it and good point. Referring to Carson and Richards. Only those two should have gone up. So unless Cech's NTI total is incorrect or possibly Carson and Richards NTI totals are wrong - Carson's should be easy to calculate as he has not had a price increase/decrease so far - let me take a look

Well that was a waste of a number of posts......

Cech's NTI for the season is currently at 29,186 - therefore he did not rise with an NTI total of just 26,514 last night - that is unless 2,500 people bought him today - which I doubt.

So the NTI Threshold of 29,000ish is still about right - however, I'm going to stick to my guns about the NTI total we see in CTC - that it usually take the number at the time of the price increase, not just the 10pm total. That is until someone more knowledgeable than me tells me I'm wrong.

(what's that? A queue of people outside the door...... )

I think Cech's NTI was given on CTC as 26,514 because of his flag at the start of the season causing some confusion as to whether he was protected for the first week. So I think we should ignore him as an anomaly (backed up by what others have said, that several other players would have risen yesterday were 26.5k the target). But as for Toure rising yesterday just under 29k...

I believe the numbers CTC gives on the 'price changes' tab are those as at the 2am price change (because I think they're usually different to the figure on the 'rises' tab at the last 10pm update). However I believe the 'todays NTI' figure on the rises/falls tabs are actually "NTI since the 10pm update last night", because I've often seen players on the day after a price rise with higher 'today's NTI' (counted from 10pm last night?) than '(total) NTI' (counted from 2am)


PS. On Harewood, I wonder if CTC's mis-spelling of his name (copied from FPL's mis-spelling at the start of the season) caused some problem which meant it didn't update his drop target correctly. A quick manual calculation last weekend gave me an approximate drop target of 15-18k for him, and sure enough he fell at -16.7k last night.

Ferguson fell today showing at 85%.

I PM'd DiamondPlus the other day to draw his attention to Al-Muhammadi now being known as Elmohamady and I mentioned Harewood's misspelling at the same time,for that very reason,but he didn't reply.

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere and is obvious. I have Fabregas and he is showing as £11.9m (that's what I bought him for) in my team. Currently he is £12M but looks like dropping to £11.9m tonight. I assume I will not lose any money and he will stay as £11.9m in my team?

Correct. Only if he drops to 11.8 or less will you lose money.

He needs about 30.000 NTO more to drop – safe to say it won't happen tonight.

Arshavin rose as expected last night. Looks like the masses are onto the Fabregas swap. Hopefully he'll annihilate West Brom, rise again, and Fabregas will have dropped by that point. Free money

Mistake on CTC. Gudjohnsen shaded in blue when he dropped.

It appears that the drops page on CtC is having a nervous breakdown,with Dembele currently 26,437.5% (don't forget that .5%) of the way towards the target of -8

Is Van Der Vaart due to rise tonight? I seem to remember him being flagged recently so wonder if he is protected?

I believe so, yes. His protection was only in place due to him being new to the game - I'm not sure if he was actually flagged for more than one day for his injury. Anyone else know?

how come fabregas wasnt protected?

also cant understand albrighton a top winger with good side going down when he is playing well and only 4.6m??

Why would he have been? Has his flag been taken off recently? Do you know what triggers protection?

You reckon his record of 1, 2, 2, 2 pts. might have had something to do with people dumping him in favour of the likes of Joey Barton? He is on positive NTIs now though, courtesy of his performance this past weekend. Funny how players' performances affect people's buying-decisions.

I was wondering about this as well. I believe he is still protected and wont rise yet? Is that right and can somebody say when he will raise in price.


ps.
Looks like he didn't go up it price tonight as my team value just changed and Van Der Vaart is still 7.5

Is there some where you can find out which players are protected from a raise or drop and how many days they will be protected.