A "rookie" mistake finds me contemplating yet a third transfer this gameweek.



Facing Kelly's month-long stretch on the bench and having heard nothing about Luiz being injured , I brought him in earlier this week as he was in my long-term plans anyway (another rookie mistake saw me miss Nasri's rise even though I'd already made the decision to bring in him for Cahill ).

Now I'm considering making a third transfer, both to hedge against Luiz and because an Everton or Brum forward seems sensible in the short term while a Rooney/Torres/Drogba trade could be a longer-term option.

I plan to have Tevez & RvP (assuming he returns to health) for the forseeable future, but have no intention of keeping Odemwingie. I'm also assuming that any future trade involving Odemwingie will be at a four point hit where I'm either upgrading him to a "big forward" or downgrading him to a 3.9 "throw-away" player (Harewood) if I decided a Fab/Lampard midfield was called for (I'm saying this only because I don't see an Odemwingie trade this week as an 8 point hit).

I also have to consider that the "off week" following GW29 might mean that injured players (like RvP) could miss only one more game (rather than two), and that I would lose at least .2 (and possibly .3) million to trade RvP out and then bring him back in when (if) he's healthy.

The upside of a third trade is of course more potential points, but the downside could be either:
1) Odemwingie scores a goal making it nearly impossible for an (uncaptained) Everton/Brum forward to cover the 4 point hit, or
2) an RvP to Rooney/Torres trade means a possible loss of team value (that could be the different between 3 and 4 top-priced players).


So, should I take a 4-point hit for one more trade?

If so, then what:

Odemwingie Saha (my current leaning)
Odemwingie Beckford
Odemwingie Zigic

If any of the above, should I captain them (increasing my chances of "covering" Odemwingie's hit and possible goal points)?

Odemwingie Other (Carroll for example)
RvP Torres/Drogba (I can't bring in another Man Utd striker until I get rid of another Man Utd player)

Any input/insight is appreciated.

4 quickies - 1)forget about buying Harewood,who now plays for Barnsley(season long loan)
2)Luiz has a hamstring problem but Ancelotti is still hopeful he'll be OK by Monday night.
3)Carroll will be your best investment,but there's no need to buy him this week as he's not certain to start and will be price protected next week if he does play as expected.
4)the worry about RVP's injury is that initially Wenger said "at least 3 weeks", then "we hope he won't be out for more than 4 weeks". Some of us remember hanging on to him for too long previously in similar circumstances,hoping for his imminent return, constantly deferred. It's such a shame,as he was in great form and his latest injury was the result of that terrific goal which he scored but unfortunately not in the Premier League.

Firstly, do you really need to make the transfer this week? Will whoever you bring in be able to be reasonably expected to score more than 4pts?

There is still every chance that Odemwingie will come on if he doesn't start and score or assist, in which case you're up on most people who did the extra transfer (if you see what I mean).

If you are dead set on make that transfer though, I can only see two options:

Odemwingie Sturridge
Odemwingie Zigic

I've gone for Zigic because of the DGW, but there is a strong argument for going with Sturridge as well. Your choice.

The worst case scenario is Barton & Luiz (and of course RvP) stay out due to injuries and Giggs and/or Rafael are again victims of rotattion. I could potentially be looking at only 9 players, one of which is Odemwingie who could show up late again for a single participation point. So it just depends on how hurt Barton & Luiz are and whether Giggs starts (I don't think Rafael will). Bit of a pickle.

I doubt Rafael will return to RB until Vidic and Ferdinand return as the CB pairing.

I think that what you are suggesting makes sense to try to "cover" more possible non-playing players.

Players in your team who may not play in worst case scenario are:-
Luiz - Certainly worth hanging on to, just unfortunate for you he is doubtful.
Barton - I'm not up on his situation
Odemwingie - out of favour (why on earth though!?)
Rafael - unlikely to play 60 mins?
RVP - defo not
Giggs - might suffer from rotation and not feature at all, or adversly could play the full 90 and put in a MOTM performance.

When I played my wild card last week (second one) there were doubts over many players such as Etherington, Cahill, Fellaini, Saha, Berbatov (despite the DGW I always thought he would not get much more than 120 mins max).
To minimise the chance of suffering a worst case scenario despite really wanting to have them in I played it safe and did not go with Cahill or Saha and as a result got A. Young and his 18 points - my first proper bit of luck this season. I have since suffered by losing Fellaini but things could have been so much worse.

My advice, the way this season has gone so far, I would ensure you have at least 1 preferably 2 players on the bench who are defo starting if possible. Sometimes (like last week) this is not the best option due to being price tied to RVP/VDV etc.

Whilst I sympathise with your situation, I can not actually work out the best transfer for you!
Possibly Odemwingie, but I would hold out until Caroll is back for a nice cheap option.
May Giggs? But who to swap for? Plus Man Utd have a good run of games coming up I think

Odemwingie Saha/Zigic
or
RVP Anelka (if you must have a Chelsea forward)

If you need to make a transfer, which it looks like you do, then I would recommend bringing in a player who will play in DGW - at least they will bring in their 4 points, as long as they don't get booked, if they do nothing on the pitch.

I recommend something like Barton Bentley

Otherwise, similar to grob, I'd be done of RVP for now. The problem is who to bring in. I guess the natural replacement would be Chamakh or Bendtner. Otherwise you can look at Anelka but I think that's 2 games too early

Assuming Luiz does't play tomorrow, I'll still get 11 players, including Young A (0) & Rafael (0). Sure glad I was able to field a full team.

Leaning toward:
Foster, Luiz, Lamps, Fab & RvP are on doubles and so are in
Nani in due to form (& as a hedge due to high ownership)
Baines and/or Coleman in based on strength of match
Adam in due to form & having a home match (& as a hedge due to high ownership)

Carr is also on a double and so should be in but is likely to get 4 or less pts between the two games

Leaving one or two of the following (in approx order I'm leaning):
Odemwingie - home to Chelsea, but how to you leave this guy out right now?
Hernandez - away to Newcastle but showing strong form
Barton - home to Man Utd & always one strike from a large haul
Walker - away to West Ham & so clean sheet points more difficult to come by

Ideas?

Should I include Coleman & play 4 defenders?
Should I leave Carr on the bench for Coleman?
Do I tempt the fates and bench Odemwingie after giving me 25 pts the last two game weeks?
Can I risk not having every Man Utd player I own on the pitch?

We have like the same team...almost that is

So here are my thoughts:
Hernandez: No. I dare to bet it will be Berbatov to start or Rooney up on his own due to the physical side that Newcastle has.
Walker: Yes. West Ham lacks width and solid full backs, so they can be taken from the flanks and Walker does like to get down the flank and provide passes into the box.
Odemwingie: Yes. In top form, that says it all against a seemingly Chelsea team without full confidence.
Coleman: Yes, if declared fit and ready to start.

Thus, my team, if I were you would be:
Foster
Walker Coleman Luiz Baines
Adam Lampard Fabregas Nani
Odemwingie RVP

You can thank me later

It would go against everything I believe to play Walker ahead of Carr this week.

Given the amount of attention he's getting, Walker must be playing very well (I haven't seen him), but in truth, his numbers are not all that strong. I don't like playing defenders if I don't think they have a decent chance of a clean sheet (Baines being the exception), and Birmingham have better odds of a clean sheet home to Sunderland than Villa away to West Ham. I might consider moving Walker higher on my sub bench (would have put him third), but would not consider starting him over either a doubler (Carr) or a mid-fielder (Coleman).

Hernandez is the wild-card. His two goals in the CL this week were exceptional (even if one was called back), and Rooney was responsible for both. You'd think they'd keep this pairing intact. But Berbs is too good & too expensive to sit the bench for him, and so who knows.

This is what the locals think of Walker's recent performances:

http://www.birminghampost.net/midlands-birmingham-sport/west-midlands-sports/aston-villa-fc/2011/04/13/aston-villa-kyle-walker-hits-back-at-critics-on-his-twitter-account-97319-28514132/

I read that earlier today... that even made me lean more towards him. The kid's got a point to prove, starting this w-end ye

It seems as though you are suggesting he be started because of this his attacking skills, rather than his defensive skills. But Villa have scored only 17 away goals in 16 games, scored no goals in a third of those, and only once scored more than two goals. Statistically speaking, they should score only one goal this week and the odds that a 20 year old full back is a part of that goal are not all that great. Not to say it can't (or won't) happen, but I'd need more insight to put him in this week.

Villa have not yet had an away clean sheet.

4Corners - Just saw you're a Villa supporter. I wish the lad all the best, but I won't be starting him. Villa don't score enough for me from a fantasy perspective and I've not often had much luck with them.

Fair point I would like to add though one thing. Had you (or me for that matter) had Johnson or Ridgewell in your line-up, I had picked one of them over Walker as they are also a goal threat when taking corners.

Although I was able to score well last week by loading up on Chelsea & Arsenal, I did it knowing I would be fielding a somewhat weakened team this week. So what to do?

Begovic is currently my only doubler, and although none of the doublers look like they'll show returns like the Chelsea/Arsenal double this last week, there's still the potential to miss a slew of points with no more coverage than I have. Bringing in a Bolton/Fulham/Stoke/Wolves player or two might be the best idea, but will this give more value than focusing instead on the next double game week?

If Hernandez is rested for the CL match, I'll have no Man Utd players to cover a relatively favorable match at home to Everton. Do I need to bring in Nani, Valencia, or maybe even Berbatov?

{{Gambler's Option: Captain Berbatov}}

Fabregas looked off his game and Lampard is a very expensive option if Malouda is returning to form. Do one of these two need to go? Which one and for who?

How long can Odemwingie keep scoring? Would I regret shipping him for one of the doublers (like Sturridge)?

Thoughts?

I'm a little outside the top 50k, so feel free to ignore me, but I've got to say I wouldn't go out of your way for these doublers. My thoughts:

- No point dumping Lampard this week when it's such a choice home tie
- No point getting any new Man U players in when they've won the league and therefore more players will be rested, plus their fixtures are not great
- Odem's been reasonably fixture-proof recently, is still scoring, and is against a dodgy Spurs defence with a good run-in
- Arsenal's fixtures are not great now, so I'd replace at least one midfielder soon (Fab simply because he frees up more cash?). This would be one of my two main priorities now
- Everton's fixtures are dodgy now, so my other priority would be to dump one defender for a doubler (Huth or plan further ahead and go for Man City?)

Transfers I'd make: Baines/Coleman to Kolarov, possibly Fabregas to Dempsey/Jarvis. That might prepare for a big money transfer in of a Man City player for their favourable run in.

So in the end, went for:
Adam O'Hara for the double, to free up funds & because Wolves run-in seemed more favorable than the other doublers
Odemwingie Zamora to try and catch a two-goal captain

At the last minute, I made the decision to take another 4 point hit for
Baines Huth because a Huth goal and cs would have hurt me more than a four point hit (assuming Baines ended up with 2)

With Liverpool's upcoming fixtures, I'm feeling like I should have some coverage.

I'm not at all happy with Yaya or Arteta, and would be willing to give either up.

I was really hoping Yaya would return to his attacking ways once De Jong returned, but he's shown no apparent interest against either Villa or Villarreal, even though he did get the assist. He may very well return to form, but Silva runs the show and the forwards look to continue to be the goal scorers.

Arteta has also failed to impress, but I could be a bit more patient with him while he looks to find his place.

I'd also be OK giving up Morison (fwd), even though he's earned 21 points in his last 4 starts, and earned me 13 points the last two times I've started him (not bad for 4.9).

From Liverpool, I currently rate Suarez & Adam (Gerrard may be back to form, but I'm hesitant to sink that much money into a player who's just returning to full fitness).

So I'm looking at three options (I have 2.4 in the bank & 1 free transfer):

1) Arteta Gerrard

2) Yaya Adam

3) Yaya Johnson plus a 4 point hit to fund Morison Suarez

I very much want to bring in Suarez and captain him (whilst finally getting rid of Yaya), but want to make sure I've thought this through.

grrard looks fit as a butchers dod to me, i got him in with suarez too

not big on advice, but would like your opinion on mine if you get chance

It's only a matter of priorities... I think. You must get Liverpool coverage and Suarez is your first option. You must also get rid of these two deadweights - Arteta & Yaya. Taking point hits is OK, especially as you can Captain one of your new picks, though that is not a must. What bothers me here is your choice of Johnson, and I assume you mean as in Adam Johnson @7.0m? If this is the case I'm not so keen, as I think Mancini deems him to be more of a gap-filler rather than a regular starter. Plus with several tough games ahead, I think he won't play more often than not.
Now... If I were in your position - and I wish I was - I would do;
Morrison Suarez
Arteta Petrov or Yaya Eagles as Bolton has some very decent fixtures ahead [SUN-H,SWA-A,STK-H,WBA-A,EVE-H,TOT-A,AST-H,FUL-A,BLA-A,NEW-H,WOL-H]and either of these two can do very well. In chosing between Arteta and Yaya for a swap I think that Arteta has more of a guaranteed starter assurance though in MCI's schedule Yaya might be more instrumental in the upcoming tough games.

I assumed he meant Bradley Johnson.

This. I like the idea of a low cost Norwich player given their fixtures and potential.

I don't know if I would take a points hit to get Suerez in. Yes it will probably pay off in the next three weeks, but even as a Suerez owner I am not entirally convinced he will put Norwich to the sword. A goal and 3 Bps seems the most likely outcome. Of course, if he is clinical he could come big. For his price, best value liverpool attacker.

In the same position with Arteta, fixtures are good but he is playing fairly deep. Frustrating stuff.

If you were to force an awnser, id go with Ironfists advice and get Suerez and Petrov.

Petrov is my highest rated midfielder for the money I would have available, and so will consider him. But going with a low cost option keeps cash available for to help me find a way to include Aguero/Nani/Young sometime in the future.

And fwiw, I'd swap Obertan for Tiote in a second if I were on a wild card.

Actually, it's really not. I did my homework on this guy and had every expectation that he would become their target man. In my opinion, although he's not a top tier player, he's a target player for an extremely well orgainzed attacking club.

I can't say I've made the right choice, but I've decided not to bring in a Liverpool player, although had I done so, it would have been Adam for Yaya .

I don't usually make decisions like this, but I decided to look at the numbers in a slightly different way.

Liverpool have 184 attacking points this year, putting them in the lower half of the table (although I didn't factor in strength of schedule). But even had I gone for a Liverpool player, it would have been Adam to avoid the transfer hit (and Gerrard could affect Adam's play).

Adam has actually done better at home than Suarez, and if you take out his red card points, has done nearly as well while away. On the other hand, I watched Liverpool last week and was very impressed with how Suarez is playing.

I decided to "go off the menu" (my menu, anyway) and pick up VdV. Tottenham have accumulated the 5th highest number of attacking points, and that's with one less match. Of those points, VdV accounts for 23% of their attack, and as importantly, 28% of their away points (and Spurs are away this week).

This is all hooey of course , but in addition, even though Liverpool have the "better" next three fixtures, Spurs are looking at a pretty decent 8 match run, making VdV a "buy & hold" option, whereas I'd be looking to get rid of Suarez prior to their Chelsea / Man City double in weeks 12 & 13.

Regardless, I'll suffer no viseral buyer's remorse this weekend as I'll not be able to see even a single match.

From this week's Scout Team News:


Morison is the "1" in this formation, and Norwich have only 6 attacking points fewer than Liverpool (but it still doesn't earn him a start from me this week ).