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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 28 Jan 2012, 21:02 
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cincirollers wrote:
Of the three, I'd only be tempted by Nasri, but I'd then have to give up either Sessegon or Dempsey (and although Dempsey's value is overblown by his one game, I do like Fulham's fixtures more than Sunderlands).

It could be a very boring next few weeks until some of these on-fire players begin to be traded out.

I can't even find a 4.0 defender I'd like to bring in and so am currently stuck with keeping McAuley, even though I don't really want him.

Perhaps 'not wanting' are a bit strong but I'm geeting a similar funny feeling about Shotton...


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 30 Jan 2012, 23:02 
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My wild card analyses so far (Defense):

Keepers: I’d like to pair Lindgaard with the Fulham keeper, but Schwarzer is still showing red (although he may well return this week), and I’m concerned that Lindegaard won’t start against Stoke. I’m not really interested in any other pairings as I don’t like the fixtures of the more affordable keepers, and don’t want to spend on the more expensive ones.

Ideally, I’d keep Lindegaard and swap Vorm for Schwarzer, but then there is a chance I’d have no keeper this week.

The "safe" bet would be to keep Vorm, and if Lindegaard doesn’t play, have him at home against Chelsea. But I’d then have to use a transfer to get Schwarzer in later.

The only good news is that I don’t rate any of the GW24 fixtures, and so don’t really need to take that game week into account (from a keeper perspective).

Defenders: I’m “resetting” my defence by down-grading two of my defenders to their current CRDs, and picking up Evans J, even though I wouldn’t get him for a few more weeks if he played for any other team. But a 4.5 defender for a team like Man Utd is too much value to ignore. I’m also taking Kelly, who at 3.9 may not be a "regular" yet, but is also too much value to ignore (while he starts).

My two CRD downgrades will be two of this season’s more popular picks; Simpson & BAE. I’m hoping I haven’t misinterpreted things, but I see Santon & Kaboul as having similar value, and will hope their lower ownership will give me a bit of an edge over the next few weeks. I believe that Simpson is a bit less active on attack since Santon started, and BAE would have identical numbers to Kaboul if it weren’t for his one explosive display against Everton. With any luck, the next Spurs defensive “explosion” will come from Kaboul instead.

From out of left field, my final defender is Swansea’s vice-captain Tate. He may turn out to be nothing more than a “throw-away” fifth defender who never plays, but if he does work himself back into the side, could provide value either by price increases or as a CRD.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 30 Jan 2012, 23:13 
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My wild card analyses of Attackers:

Midfielders: I had much less trouble deciding here, as almost everyone is picking Silva, Bale, Dempsey, Valencia and/or Sessegon (my current selections). Silva & Bale are two I’ve never really waivered on, although one may have to go if Nani starts producing (alongside Valencia). But for now, they’re in.

Although I think Dempsey’s numbers are a bit skewed by his latest outing, I like Fulham’s upcoming fixtures and so it doesn’t make sense not to have him.

I’m not nearly as smitten with Sessegon as others, and most of my early teams had McClean in for him. I’ve only recently decided to swing back to him as I began to look at the options for my third striker. Once I considered Sess my third striker (his current role), it seemed to make more sense to have him in.

Forwards: Every team I had until a couple days ago had Rooney in it, but I’ve since taken him out. I’m still not sure how best to leverage Man Utd (especially after GW27), but for now, will settle for a single attacker and hope the Lindegaard/Evans block has more value than two Man Utd attackers.

I was either going to go McClean (cheap), Van P, Aguero & someone; or Van P, Aguero & Sess with a cheap(er) forward. Going with McClean over Sess would have made it easier to bring in Ba, but I don’t want to bring him in yet and actually struggled with who my third would be. I had (just) enough for Dzeko, which would have been decent after this week, or any of the other Ba “place-holders” (Sturridge, Bellamy, etc.).

But for now I'm leaning toward Sess & Morison, and by keeping that pairing for two weeks, would have Morison availble for his home game against Bolton. I would then likely bring McClean in for Sess & Ba (or someone similar) for Morison.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 30 Jan 2012, 23:33 
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My latest wild card attempt:


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 31 Jan 2012, 16:42 
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cincirollers wrote:
My latest wild card attempt:


I like the side.

Can you afford to get Fletcher in for Morison? Then again 6.2m is a lot to be invested in a sub.

Is Tate a place-holder for you due to his low value?


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 31 Jan 2012, 16:51 
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Arseshavin wrote:
cincirollers wrote:
My latest wild card attempt:


I like the side.

Can you afford to get Fletcher in for Morison? Then again 6.2m is a lot to be invested in a sub.

Is Tate a place-holder for you due to his low value?
I looked at Fletcher when I was planning McClean as my bench player, but like Sessesgon & Morison better than McClean & Fletcher.

I don't expect Tate to get much playing time (if any at all), but then again, I don't expect to ever use him either. But he's one of those guys that if another defender gets hurt, could find himself with several starts.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 31 Jan 2012, 17:12 
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cincirollers wrote:
Arseshavin wrote:
cincirollers wrote:
My latest wild card attempt:


I like the side.

Can you afford to get Fletcher in for Morison? Then again 6.2m is a lot to be invested in a sub.

Is Tate a place-holder for you due to his low value?
I looked at Fletcher when I was planning McClean as my bench player, but like Sessesgon & Morison better than McClean & Fletcher.

I don't expect Tate to get much playing time (if any at all), but then again, I don't expect to ever use him either. But he's one of those guys that if another defender gets hurt, could find himself with several starts.


That's fair mate. Do you have any fears about Sess being deployed on the wing? I'm looking at a way to drop him rather than go for the third cheap striker but struggling! :(


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 31 Jan 2012, 17:36 
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I actually have very little interest in Sess, and expect to not start him next week, allowing Morison to start against Bolton. After that, I anticipate transfering both.

With that said, if Sess does score again this week, it will be hard to leave him on the bench next week.

And fwiw, I saw a little of McClean in the cup tie and think he could be one of the better 4.5 midfielders. I'm not sure where your concerns are, but I wouldn't be afraid to take him as my cheap attacker.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 04 Feb 2012, 16:45 
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First I see the Twitter feed from Scout (below).

And then I make the mistake of thinking I have until 7:30 AM local to make changes (I was an hour off). And so even after setting my alarm to be up early enough to put the arm band back on Van P, I was too late.

Oh well, I had my moment in the sun earlier this year. There's always next year.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 17:06 
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From the heady heights of 314, I've now fallen to the relatively dismal low of 16,188. Some of this was due to sheer stupidity (captain's choices, too cheap on defense), and some due to my belief that holding onto my wild card would allow me to get a big chunk back when I used it. But I now have my doubts.

I know there's been a couple "when do you wild card threads" out there, but these are mostly "this is when I like to do it" responses. Anyone want to take a stab as to the most effective time for me to use my second? I'd love to hear your reasonings behind when you'd do it if you still have (had) one left.

(I know how I got myself into this mess, I'm really looking for how to get out of it :roll: )


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 17:56 
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Don't really see how you can use it now, though Ba would be nice to have. You have a very strong front 8, if generic, that won't see too much money benched either. Not sure about Kaboul or Tate as picks and I'm not sure what your 2 changes have been but without losing Sessegnon to say McClean, you are short of transfer options going forward. I would now be tempted to wait until developments towards the end of the season (when losing value will be irrelevant, someone may have already secured the title, etc), a serious double GW, or until you have an obscene injury / suspension crisis before using it. Though saying that, I have a propensity to not get players in straight away and they up destroying me every time - probably Ba this 2nd time, just like Bosingwa, Bale, Nani, Sessegnon, Silva and most other top performers I've had at one wrong time or another!! This has been my mistake of the season, worrying too much about the hard fixtures...


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 18:33 
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Each year I've used my wildcard early and each year I've kicked myself later on in the season when I was desperate for it. So this season I refused to use it early - and now it seems that this year the dreaded weather or fixture pile up may not be happening!!

However, the 5th round FA cup draw has given me some solace -

LIVERPOOL v Brighton h
EVERTON v Blackpool/Sheff Wed h
CHELSEA v Birmingham h
Crawley v STOKE a
Stevenage v SPURS a
NORWICH v Leicester a
Middlesboro/Sunderland v ARSENAL a
Milwall/Southapton v BOLTON h

If all of the Premier league teams win the quarter finals will be an all Premier League affair. The weekend for the quarter finals is also a full Premier League weekend.

Now if we're really unlucky, they'll push all the Premier league games to the midweek but I'm hoping that some of these get pushed later on in the season for double headers.

The Premier League games scheduled for that weekend are:

Blackburn v Sunderland
Everton v Arsenal
Fulham v Swansea
Newcastle v Norwich
QPR v Liverpool
Tottenham v Stoke City
Wigan v West Brom
Wolves v Man Utd
Aston Villa v Bolton
Man City v Chelsea

So effectively, these 3 games survive:

Fulham v Swansea
Wigan v West Brom
Wolves v Man Utd

and if Arsenal beat Sunderland in quarter finals, presuming they beat Middlesborough, then Blackburn vs Sunderland will also be a fixture.

So I'll be awaiting until at least the weekend of 17th/18th/19th Feb and seeing what happens in the 5th round of the FA cup (Apologies for all of those people supporting lower division teams - I do expect some giant killings but the premise of my hope still stands that teams will have DGW later on - or in fact we use our wildcard to choose a team with only a few possible options)


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 19:08 
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@Sutter - Yeah, I went ahead and made the (planned) move of:
Sess :arrow: McClean
Morison :arrow: Ba

leaving me with what is essentially the same front 8 as most, but with the weaker back line (a calculated risk that doesn't seem to be paying off - again!).

{Rant}Kaboul goes off injured in what should have been an easy 6 pointer, and Tate, who I thought was a brilliant choice that no one would see coming, has been AWOL, despite being picked by many pundits to be in the starting line-up upon his return. Oh Yeah! And Morison - one of the leading goal scorers in the league - doesn't get the start against Bolton - Give me a freaking break!{/Rant}



@Sutboy - Appreciate the heads-up on the cup ties, and will be looking for what that might mean.

But just out of curiosity, if you get the six-team game week, you're not suggesting you use your wildcard to load up on those teams are you? I assuming you'd use it to try and leverage the double gameweeks that it would necessitate.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 19:17 
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cincirollers wrote:
@Sutboy - Appreciate the heads-up on the cup ties, and will be looking for what that might mean.

But just out of curiosity, if you get the six-team game week, you're not suggesting you use your wildcard to load up on those teams are you? I assuming you'd use it to try and leverage the double gameweeks that it would necessitate.


Guess it depends on how desperate you are!! However, you're more mathematical than me......isn't it easier to predict which players will score the most points, when only having 6 teams to choose from, compared to working out which players will score more points when possibly 8 teams have a double game week? There must be more factors that makes the 2nd scenario harder to predict (players getting injured, weather, rested/rotated etc)

I appreciate that unwinding a side that has a focus of just 6 teams in it is pretty challenging, but I would guess that you're more likely to close on your nearest rivals if you have fewer players to choose from to start with. The opposition would either have to take massive point hits to put out a first 11 or be willing to only have 5 or 6 players playing.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012, 19:20 
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stuboy wrote:
cincirollers wrote:
@Sutboy - Appreciate the heads-up on the cup ties, and will be looking for what that might mean.

But just out of curiosity, if you get the six-team game week, you're not suggesting you use your wildcard to load up on those teams are you? I assuming you'd use it to try and leverage the double gameweeks that it would necessitate.


Guess it depends on how desperate you are!! However, you're more mathematical than me......isn't it easier to predict which players will score the most points, when only having 6 teams to choose from, compared to working out which players will score more points when possibly 8 teams have a double game week? There must be more factors that makes the 2nd scenario harder to predict (players getting injured, weather, rested/rotated etc)

I appreciate that unwinding a side that has a focus of just 6 teams in it is pretty challenging, but I would guess that you're more likely to close on your nearest rivals if you have fewer players to choose from to start with. The opposition would either have to take massive point hits to put out a first 11 or be willing to only have 5 or 6 players playing.
It's an interesting, and very ball-sy, alternative. I hope it happens just to have the option of doing it.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012, 11:16 
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I would keep it now, all the players you have are rising in value and in good form, there will come a point in a month or 2 when it will come in really handy :)


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012, 13:23 
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Sorry guys. I should have been a little more clear. :oops:

I just used my winter wc two weeks ago and so wasn't really considering using it now. I was just wondering how best to leverage it later in the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012, 15:51 
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Yeah, but you still have a wildcard available? or not?


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012, 16:01 
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Droughton wrote:
Yeah, but you still have a wildcard available? or not?
Yes, but I wasn't looking to play it now (or in the immediate future), but wondering when the best time to play it would be.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012, 17:15 
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cincirollers wrote:
Droughton wrote:
Yeah, but you still have a wildcard available? or not?
Yes, but I wasn't looking to play it now (or in the immediate future), but wondering when the best time to play it would be.


March/April?

Catch the end of season of season form players for the last 8-10 weeks


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 13 Feb 2012, 01:58 
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Lost another 5,000 places this week.

I think it's fair to say I'm emotionally checked-out for the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 13 Feb 2012, 09:16 
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cincirollers wrote:
Lost another 5,000 places this week.

I think it's fair to say I'm emotionally checked-out for the season.

Welcome to the club! :|


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 09 Mar 2012, 05:43 
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With extremely poor performances over the last couple months, and a busier real world lately, I have almost completely checked out of fantasy for the year.

But with the double this week, I went ahead and played my wild card (below). With very little analysis, this is mostly based on gut, but I figured I'd take one last shot and take some big chances.

Silva & Dempsey are gone and are too expensive to bring back in as part of my wild card. I know that Johnson is hurt, but am taking him to try and have someone different for the double. I'm OK with moving away from Man City, as I don't fancy their remaining fixtures, and think Man Utd & Liverpool have decent enough run-ins that I can initially max out on their players (and can always drop a Pool player if I again feel the need for a Man City player).

I also like the looks of the remaining fixtures for Bolton, Wolves & West Brom, and will be looking here first for my lower cost players.

A couple scenarios:

1 - Bring Gerrard in instead of Adam, but that would mean dropping Pogrebnyak, and my only Fulham attacking option.

2 - Get Miyaichi instead of Andrews, but would need to find some additional funds (would still .1 short if I downgraded Nani to Young)

I might be willing to drop Bale, but would rather hold on to him.

I have a window of about 3 hours tomorrow evening to make my choices, and then will finish the season basically by "the seat of my pants".

Feel free to comment if you have any thoughts.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 09 Mar 2012, 16:21 
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Will Brunt replace Andrews in the team this week? Worth considering IMO


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 10 Mar 2012, 10:02 
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GK - Schwarzer, ok, I know you have a fetish for him, but Bogdan, despite his reddness (shirt & hair) is a bad choice. Bolton can't hold a CS to save their own lives and relying on multiple saves is a poor option IMHO. Don't confuse your sympathy for redheads with a Bolton GK...
DEF - TaylorR - poor VFM, Tate - meh, EvansJ- :) , TWO Liverpool defenders is a huge gamble. Get BAE as Spurs needs some decent victories to maintain their European aspirations alive and have some nice fixtures.
MID - Adam will do very little, maybe an assist in both DGW games, Nani is in poor form atm - get AYoung, Drenthe... hmm... maybe and Andrews? What is an Andrews? Sounds like another slim chance gamble to me.
STR - :D

Too many iffs, buts and risks to my liking.


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 10 Mar 2012, 18:12 
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Ironfist wrote:
GK - Schwarzer, ok, I know you have a fetish for him, but Bogdan, despite his reddness (shirt & hair) is a bad choice. Bolton can't hold a CS to save their own lives and relying on multiple saves is a poor option IMHO. Don't confuse your sympathy for redheads with a Bolton GK...
DEF - TaylorR - poor VFM, Tate - meh, EvansJ- :) , TWO Liverpool defenders is a huge gamble. Get BAE as Spurs needs some decent victories to maintain their European aspirations alive and have some nice fixtures.
MID - Adam will do very little, maybe an assist in both DGW games, Nani is in poor form atm - get AYoung, Drenthe... hmm... maybe and Andrews? What is an Andrews? Sounds like another slim chance gamble to me.
STR - :D

Too many iffs, buts and risks to my liking.

:!:


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 13 Mar 2012, 22:55 
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Two Liverpool defenders were an inspired stroke of brilliance (14 - 16 points from two - see HancockJr's top 200 score). In a double, you really only need one cs to make it worthwhile. I just happened to pick the wrong two.

Captain Stevie helped ease the pain though. :wink:


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 14 Mar 2012, 13:58 
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cincirollers wrote:
Two Liverpool defenders were an inspired stroke of brilliance (14 - 16 points from two - see HancockJr's top 200 score). In a double, you really only need one cs to make it worthwhile. I just happened to pick the wrong two.
I disagree... you only got 1 GW worth of points from a huge risk, especially considering it was Liverpool who are as unreliable as they come.
Captain Stevie helped ease the pain though. :wink:
This is an inspired pick 8-) , considering his inury niggles prior to the game. I wonder where your advice was in preparetion for this DGW... :|


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 14 Mar 2012, 16:03 
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As I mentioned above, I have a lot less free time than in the past (doing this from work now). But re Liverpool's defense, don't they have 2nd highest # of cs? (or something close)?


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 Post subject: Re: Cinci's RMT
PostPosted: 14 Mar 2012, 19:26 
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Well done on your score this week, some really good transfers and an inspired captain choice! Top 7k again now, hope it revives your interest and you have a strong finish


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