Because you didn't do it in the first place, and you have priors.

Observe:

Hi guys! I found this great piece of work by a guy called ISACKI over on FFS. Here is the link: http://fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2012/ ... nt-2533567

This is what I think about it, and how I might use it in my team. What do you think?

Love and kisses,

Abhishek

I am tried of this thing now telling everybody that the Credit goes to ISACKI and not me.
It's now been declare in the First post.

Thank you for posting. Very useful and gives food for thought.

Personally I couldnt give a toss who the originial source is. We are talking about ideas for fantasy football and Abhi sourced the original guys anyway. I do not think foot notes and a bibliography are necessary for a post about how one might rotate defenders in a fantasy league!

Now think about it. If i didn't post this things majority of the people didn't even know about. I post this Knowledge to know people some tactics and strategic in the fantasy league which will help in there experience as it says "sharing is caring".

Mate, I'll try and put this simply:

I think you probably have the best intentions but people are just saying you should have said where you copied the information from, and provided a link to it.

It is my fault for not delivering the things in a right way. I should have provided a link instead of names.

To put it simply:

Because you didn't do it in the first place, and you have priors.

Observe:

Hi guys! I found this great piece of work by a guy called ISACKI over on FFS. Here is the link: http://fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2012/ ... nt-2533567

Man up and move on ...

Indeed. If there was a Ballon D'Or for "Best use of Ctrl+C & Ctrl+V" you've got my nomination. Don't understand what people are objecting to.

Although people are tending to leave out the likes of Wolves, WBA etc. some of these teams actually rotate very well with some of the more common picks. West Brom have a very good 'odds' rotation with Newcastle, where you'd play the Newcastle defender around 9 times of the remaining gameweek and play the WBA defender for the remaining 5.

Are people writing them off for sure? Although goalscoring defenders are hard to predict we've got Ward sitting on three at the moment and when I've seen him play he's been very close to adding a few more. Samba has an goalscoring threat along with Jagielka. They aren't exactly base-price though.

The analysis I want to see is a historical success rate of rotating defenders. If I ever bet a game, I usually give both teams a goal, which is why I'm still cautious...

I seen lots of people wildcard around 8 gameweeks ago and put in the likes of McAuley, Wilkinson and Ruddy and they got completely burned. The wildcard is a great opportunity, but I've seen it ruin a great team for many good players. I'm overly cautious to include the likes of Senderos and Shotton, who look good on paper but they are far from nailed on.

I guess risk is rewarded...

No matter how statistically sound it is always a guessing game and I know I am not the only one who has been burned by "sure things" on clean sheets. There has to be a certain weight given to performances watched in these matters. For instance I think Shotton's value is more than Caulkers for one main reason. I think there is more to be said for Shotton's long throws to crouch than there is Caulker sitting in front of in form Vorm at home. Is Caulker more likely to get the CS....yes I believe so. But is he so much more likely that it out weighs the potential for the assist from Shotton? Not IMO so I will go with Shotton. I would make the same argument with Senderos over Coloccini. Senderos just looks like more of threat. Its not so much on paper as it is watching the matches. For what it is worth I am not writting off any WBA defenders. As soon as Olsson is healthy and purchased by QPR I am all over him

WBA having FOSTER could not keep Cleanies. So the problem lies in their defense. And i don't think,anybody here will consider WBA defense in there WC teams.

They've kept 4 clean sheets this season, really should be 5 due to the last minute Everton goal.

I think the only teams I wouldn't invest into defensively are Norwich, Bolton and Wigan. I don't believe in doubling-up on defence, due to the lack of cleansheets. I like to spread the odds and it allows for a greater spread across the fixtures. I can see why people double-up though, but I can't stand the pain of a goal going in and taking two cleansheets away in one.

For people like me it's a 1 out of 3 choice to make my starting 11, with a 1 out of 2 choice for my keeper. I don't double up on keepers either so my back 7 usually come from 7 different teams unless it's for a doubler (Everton defenders which worked out great ).

Newcastle - Swansea are already covered in my goalkeepers, so if I have two defenders from a 'big' side then I've three other sides to cover. Going by common picks this only leaves me with Sunderland, Stoke and Fulham, where two are going to lose out both weeks. If you hold a WBA defender or from another side, they will probably lose out most of the time, but there will always be another defender losing out with them or two if you have four cheapies.

Guys relax. We've all benefited from others' calculations and analyses at some point or the other (I for one am a complete parasite). And fixture matching / rotation is nothing new (and fairly useless in my book - clean sheets, IMHO, are fairly unpredictable)*.

I am a little partial to giving Abhishek the benefit of the doubt, seeing that he mentioned the original posters (albeit if in a somewhat cryptic manner - but bless him, we all like to be appreciated) ...... and let me be honest there are so few fantasy football players from India after all (indeed here at FISO).

* I made an analysis (a while back here at FISO) of last year's clean sheets for Man City (who got 18, if you'd remember), in terms of how many would be anticipated or unanticipated CSes and found little correlation. As under. When you expect it, CSes have a 50% chance of happening, and when you don't, the %ages do not go down substantially, only to about 43%
As for the outliers, Stoke would have it different home and away I suppose (they are a true exception), and Swansea's will even out, is my belief. They got an away CS last match.

(PS: does this post pass the fit and proper test?).

I appreciate the post and don't think he shoudl have given a link, I'd rather see it in FISO. Better attribution would have been good but he tried and I'm sure will do better next time, unless all the knockers have put him off. I don't think the analysis is any good though, the clean sheet data has too much "noise" to be reliable, and as someone said earlier, why just rotate defenders - have 4 cheap players that rotate well as pairs.

So well done, thanks, but no thanks!

Agree completely.



I agree in principle but not in execution.
Your rationale is valid for Baines. He gets a lot of assists, takes penalties, and his lack of clean sheets is offset by the offensive point potential, thus his value over say Terry (and I believe in the long run Baines will be the highest pointscoring defender)
However Shotton is different. A goal from a long throw is a rare event (2-3 times a season, certainly less than 1----a Baines assist - 11 last season, that's a 29% or so chance every match i.e Baines will get you an assist twice in 7 matches or so; and 2-----the occurrence of a penalty- once in 6 matches is a rough estimate). Add to that the fact that Everton is a fairly good defensive team.
Unless you plan on playing Shotton every match, there is full chance that the match in which Crouch gets a header to a Shotton throw, is a match against Man United away which Stoke lose 5-1, and you had Shotton in bench (and for good purpose, he would have got you only three points, notwithstanding the bonus.)

Some further analysis on Baines - Everton will possibly get about 10 CSes, that's 2 every 8 matches. So every 8 matches, Baines will, at last year's form, get you 1 goal, 2 assists and 2 CSes.

That's not considering everton's striker crisis (and primarily chief header Cahill's lack of goals - primary reason for just 1 assist from Baines this season); but that's not considering Arteta taking a few of the penalties from Baines like he did last season.

But that is considering that Baines is in my team, and I realy really pray he's my differential to take me higher up the league, the rest of my team is generic.

Very good points, I will be watching closely to see if Shotton of Caulker get more points from this point on. It is funny you mention Baines...Im dropping him this week so I have the funds to get Valencia.

Will be a great analysis to have, thanks ctibbits. Please do publish when done. If I may, I'd suggest please keep a variable in the analysis that considers whether you would play him in that match or not.

Baines form is same as of last year no difference at all,but Everton has changed a lot from last season. The goals from Tim Cahill where majority of the assists was coming from Baines was Cut off. No High hitting Strikers. So i am away from them since last season.

I'm having my worst season since I started playing FPL proprly so i've decided to give this system a bash until the end of the season with my WC (played this week) as i've given up in all leagues i'm playing in so have nothing to lose.

The back 5 i've gone for is Caulker Brown Senderos Santon Cahill (hopefully he'll go to Chelsea).

Will let you know how it ends up come the end of the season.