With Newcastle playing Liverpool and Man Utd before he flies off is it time for him to be shipped out? Was thinking a straight swap for sturridge, whats you thoughts?

A lot of people will be considering this, including me. It makes sense.

I haven't got him so I don't have to make the call but:

Ba to stay until after QPR game... potentially

I think Sturridge is likely to have a price rise tonight as well.

I dont see Liverpool and an injury hit Utd defence being an unsumountable stumbleing block tbh, on form im considering keeping him for as long as possible and if its confirmed he will play against QPR i think i may stick. I have a feeling the DGW may be be a bit of a Dud, fully expect Everton and Spurs to be tight.

Just shipped him out for Sturrige pure economics... I think he may
Score 1 vs pool... But Chelsea have an easier game... Then
There is the price rise of stur.... It was now or never

same

I'm keeping him till he goes.

Got an assist at City and a goal at United, anything could happen.

Glad someone else said it before me. Really, you have to at some point have confidence in a striker that he'll do it in the big games as well.

I'd keep him if it wasn't a combination of tougher
Fixtures AND. aCN

He'll score against Liverpool!

Exactly. I would not lose sleep over replacing him to potentially gain 0.1m later in the week.

I really don't get this thinking. Surely it is blindingly obvious that on average players like Ba will score more against struggling teams than good teams, and more home than away? Of course he may score/assist in these games, but on average he'll score fewer points.

Fantasy football is all about getting a situation where you maximise your expected points, on average, and then over the season those situations will pay off for you, with some short term volatility.

It's true that lately "form" fixture have not always paid off, but who has conceded fewest goals? Man City, Liv and Man U. Who has conceded the most? Norwich, Bburn, Bolton, Wigan and Wolves.

Makes sense to me.

He might well get something from the next couple of games, but to my mind Sturridge is *more likely* to get something, or rather get something more, given the fixtures. They're both firing at the moment, so for me it comes down to maximising return on player values (e.g. sturridge is going up) and finding the softest fixtures for either player. You'll need to get Ba out fairly soon anyway, so this seems a sensible time to do it.

I write as someone who agrees that the FF problem is essentially one of maximising expected utility. That said, actually maximising expected utility in practice has always proved beyond me, over a season (best finish just outside 1000) or even in an individual round of fixtures (once came 13th overall in GW)! As you well know, the problem involves too many variables and too many constraints, so we are left searching for local maxima given our circumstances week-by-week rather than the global maximum. I accept that FPL managers will have their own approaches to utility maximisation over time, many of them being heuristic; and in this context I can see how some managers who already own Ba might think that his current form is a factor that is highly weighted in their personal utility maximisation algorithm as deployed this week.

That's exactly what I was about to write

PM me next time an' I'll save myself the bother

But you weren't gonna use so many big words, innit?!

Mr C - Your logic is, of course, undeniable. However, as such evidence as my captaincy picks thread have shown, sticking with unlikely heroes can pay off. I guess you can call it a gut call.

Re. Ba, as I see it, his on form, Newc are still creating chance, and previous games against the big teams shows there is a good enough chance that something will happen.

Also, it's surely not beyond the realms of probabiliy that Sturridge could be rested before Drogba heads off, and Torres is surely going to start alone up top as well (though, granted, Sturridge plays on the wing).

What's surprised me re. Chelsea is how Malouda has sunk without a trace.

If I had him, I'd keep him as there are other priorites I'm sure for most people atm (and it appears he's over his injury for the Liverpool game); there are possibilities that he'll continue to impress maybe attracting double figures for both games combined, which would be a very good return. But there is a good chance of 2,2 or maybe 2,5 (5,2). Much better options available with more expected averages (and much more potential for braces/hatricks) and I can understand someone ditching him now if a spare transfer is available. Being a Newcastle fan, I think his current goal tally (and thus boni) is way in excess of his ability, but saying that will likely be in my team after ACN, because of his price.

I'm keeping him. He's looked absolutely unstoppable at times. Newcastle don't create as many chances for him as lots of other premier league strikers get but he takes his chances well. He is in fantastic form and I don't feel there are any other better options, especially for the price.

Shipped him for out for Sturridge before this round (glad i did). Will buy him back after the acn at much lower price (expecting ~6.5).

After last night I'm pretty sure Sturridge will outscore Ba in GW19, 20, 21.

Happy to hold for Man Utd and hopefully QPR as well. More than capable of scoring in both of these and while I will likely swap for Sturridge, Chelsea dont like scoring a bundle any time soon. Seeing as there are few better options for the next couple of weeks I dont want to waste a transfer - can sort it out when I use the wildcard

I'm pretty sure he won't drop that much - a lot of people will already be out of him, and when he's away he'll be flagged. I'd guess he'll only slip to £7.1m-£7.3m.

Exactly - sometimes the decisions are not as complicated as they are being made out! I swapped him for Sturridge last week.

I'm with you on this, I mean on Friday night he really should have scored and L'pool have a better defence at Anfield than United will do at SJP/SDA. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll be able to stay for the QPR game, even if Senegal don't have the friendlies.

Re. replacements, I'm thinking either Morison, Holt or Agbonlahor. Norwich keep scoring and have a goodish run of games, while Villa are looking good now and have a wonderful run of games.

What about Bellamy as a replacement? With Suarez suspension looming and the other overpriced donkey living up to his reputation surely Bellamy will become first choice and a bargain at 7.4m....Am i missing something here?

Any more info regarding Ba being around for QPR game?

If Suarez does serve the 8 games, everyone will be on Bellamy like a shot, especially if Gerrard is fully fit. Good call.

Was thinking Bellamy myself too along with the Yak

Bellamy has ongoing knee problems which is why he can't play every game

I'm staying away