White Tiger wrote:
Differentials never have been & never will be something I care about. I just want the most points I can get.
First off, let me say that differentials for the sake of being different is a mugs game. For example, any FPL manager would be an idiot to replace Suarez with RVP since Suarez is the better FPL pick, nor would it be a good idea to replace YayaT with Mata just because fewer people own him.
Differentials in the sense that I mean, and I think in the sense Mr Glover means too, are intended that for some widely held players, you should be able to reasonably expect to outscore them with alternative picks, because some of those widely held players are over performing and can't be expected to continue scoring at their current rates.
Differentials does not mean having XI players of less than 10% ownership, it means just being smart about one or two picks that the masses have and meaning that over a run of several games you would expect your "smarter" picks to outscore the widely held players.
If you look at someone like Ramsey, then it is hard to see a better player at the price point since even though he has somewhat overachieved, even his "expected" points would be up there with the best in the category.
YayaT however, is exactly the kind of player you can risk dropping, with the genuine expectation that you can get in front of 38% of managers by out scoring him.
Billy Bongo wrote:
It's not my phrase it's Mavericks. I'm genuinely interested how he came to that conclusion, overpriced and overrated for a player who can't stop scoring points. By genuinely interested, I mean exactly that, I'm not disagreeing with him, I've not said otherwise, and he may well be right. But it would be good to hear some detail behind that conclusion.
Now this brings me to Billy's point - I don't dislike YayaT, he's a great footballer and quite possibly the best all round player in the league, but he can be a great player and still not be a good FPL pick, just like RVP is at the moment.
YayaT currently has a superman level conversion rate and a shots on target ratio that is also probably a little on the high side, so we have to assume he will regress to a more "normal" rate of scoring given the number of shots he has.
As a back of an envelope calculation, let's say that he "only" scored 4 goals instead of 7 (based on the suggested reduction of his conversion rate from ~60% to 30%) and therefore also lost 7 bonus points too. That would take his tally for the season down to 72. Now, I admit this is a slightly contrived example, but bear with me.
If he had scored 72, then players like Gerrard, Hazard and Ozil (playing 3 games less) would have all outscored him. If players like Michu, Silva
and Walcott had been fit/in some form, then again I would expect them to have outscored that mark too. If you manage to pick the "best" of those players, then there's no reason that you shouldn't be 20 points up on YayaT's score.
Also, note that I'm not going to accept the argument that Michu, Walcott, whoever HAVEN'T scored 70 points so far, because it is not relevant. Over the next 15 games, I would expect Yaya to regress to that 70 ish point mark (obviously this is just probabilities and nothing is absolute). The question is will one of the differentials step up and hit 90 points over that period.
So you see Billy, I'm not saying Yaya is a bad player, just that he may not be the best FPL pick @9.6 for the next 15 games.